Things Are Different

This is a duplication of something I wrote here two weeks ago. TalkMarkets has had some technical issues, and the articles I wrote (linked below) are no longer posted. Hopefully, they are recovered!

If you invest for yourself or help investors, you are aware of a big shift going on right now in equities. While the S&P 500 bounced strongly on Friday, it is up only 1% in 2026 so far after soarding in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Small-caps are soaring, with the Russell 2000 now up 7.7%. Here is the action since the middle of 2025:

So, over the last 7+ months, IWM has done better, though the action has really been since November. Looking at the longer-term action, SPY far outpaced IWM over the past three years. This can be seen by looking at the action over the past decade, the start of which was before Trump was elected President:

As my title states, things are different! I am not suggesting that readers sell their SPY and buy IWM, though it may keep rallying. I am concerned about a big pullback in the S&P 500, as I have been sharing here at at TalkMarkets and elsewhere. When I started discussing this at Seeking Alpha, I quickly learned that many investors don't think that "sell SPY" or "sell XLK" for cash is really doable, and I understand this. I adapted my writing to have some better alternatives. You can read my ETF articles, which are now published under a different alias by my, The Intelligent ETF Investor.

I first wrote at TalkMarkets a dozen years ago, and I have shared three ETF articles there recently:

• Sharp S&P Sector Swings Suggest Shifts

• Why Investors Should Pay For PEY

• Consider These ETFs To Diversify

As I said, I have stepped up my writing about ETFs, and I also created an ETF watchlist that now numbers 81 ETFs spread across equities, fixed-income and other asset classes. On 12/31, I launched a model portfolio, and it aimst to beat a balanced index of 60% SPY and 40% AGG. I have made a few changes, but it is quite similar in its set-up now to the way it was at the beginning of the year, with just 6 ETFs right now:

The three equity ETFS are PEY, RSP and SMDV, and they are doing well. I have reduced PEY and SMDV but have increased RSP since year-end. The model portfolio is short of the index-amount of equities. The majority of the fixed-income is in two TIPS funds..

I am not posting here to help time the trades away from large-caps (or the large-cap Technology or the Magnificent 7), but I am here to answer any questions readers might have. I am envisioning a potential sharp decline in the S&P 500 and believe that there are many parts of the market that make a lot more sense to hold.