SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral.
Gain since 12/20/22=15.50%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We updated this chart from yesterday; Yesterday we said, “Panic only forms at bottoms in the market; no panic no bottom. We look at the TRIN to help us find when panic is present. The bottom window is the 5-day average of the TRIN and the next higher window is the 10-day average. The Five-day trin greater than 1.50 and 10-day TRIN greater than 1.20 suggest there is enough panic in the market to form a bottom. The five-day trin stands at 1.00 and the 10-day at 1.01; TRIN readings are not high enough to suggest a worthwhile low is forming here. The QQQ was down four days in a row going into Friday; which predicts the market will be lower within five days 73% of the time. The current bounce is not expected to go far. Next lower low could produce a good setup.” Added to above, the blue lines show the times when both the 5 and ten-day trin reached bullish levels. Currently the 5-day TRIN stands at .92 and the 10-day at 1.00; not near bullish levels.
Last Friday the QQQ and SPX were down four days in a row (SPY was down 3 days in a row); which predicts the market will be lower within five days 73% of the time. The chart above goes back to late 2022 and shows the times when the QQQ was down four days in a row. New short-term lows may be seen in the coming days. Will need the 5 and 10-day TRIN readings to reach bullish levels before a bullish setup will be triggered. A longer-term view is that the market may reach new highs going into yearend.
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