| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of December 4 | |||
| December 4 | |||
| Factory Orders - October | -2.5% | 2.8 | -2.6 |
| Durable Goods Orders | -5.4 | 4.6 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.5 | 1.0 | |
| December 5 | |||
| PMI Services Index - November | 50.8 | 50.8 | |
| ISM Services - November | 51.8 | 51.8 | 52.0 |
| JOLTS-October | 9.400M | 9.533 | 9.350 |
| December 6 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - November | 130K | 113 | 128 |
| International Trade - October | -$64.3B | -61.5 | -64.1 |
| Productivity - Q3 (r) | 5.0% | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Unit Labor Costs | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| December 7 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 220K | 218 | 223 |
| Wholesale Inventories - October (p) | -0.2% | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| Wholesale Sales | |||
| Consumer Credit - October | $9.0B | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| December 8 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - November | 150K | 150 | 180 |
| Private | 130 | 99 | 155 |
| Manufacturing | 35 | -35 | 25 |
| Unemployment | 3.9% | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Average Workweek | 34.3HR | 34.3 | 34.3 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (p) | 61.8 | 61.3 | 62.0 |
| Week of December 11 | |||
| December 12 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November | 90.7 | 90.7 | |
| Consumer Price Index - November | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Core CPI | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Treasury Budget - November | -$219.0B | -66.6 | |
| December 13 | |||
| Producer Price Index - November | 0.1% | -0.5 | |
| PPI less food, energy and trade services | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| FMOC | 5.375% | 5.375 | |
| December 14 | |||
| Retail Sales - November | 0.0% | -0.1 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | -0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas | 0.0 | 0.1 | |
| Export Prices - November | -1.0% | -1.1 | |
| Import Prices | 1.0 | -0.8 | |
| Business Inventories - October | 0.0% | 0.4 | |
| December 15 | |||
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index | 5.0 | 9.1 | |
| Industrial Production - November | 0.3% | -0.3 | |
| Capacity Utilization | 79.1 | 79.4 | |
| Manufacturing | 0.4 | -0.3 | |
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 49.4 | 49.4 | |
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Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 30 & Nov. 6
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