James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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US Labor Market Cycle Has Peaked; Will Recession Soon Follow?
There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. Context in the form of reviewing a wide variety of metrics is essential for minimizing noise.
Will Housing Inflation Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer?
Housing is among the most interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy. It’s also one of the most cyclical and crucial inputs for the business cycle.
Communications, Energy Are 2024’s Sector Leaders For US Stocks
The upside momentum in the US stock market so far this year continues to be led by rallies in communications services and energy shares.
Was April’s Correction Noise Or Signal For Global Markets?
April was a rough month for investors, but the rebound in asset prices in the early days of May has revived expectations that the worst has passed.
Will US Economy Stabilize In Q2 After Two Quarterly Downshifts?
Preliminary estimates of second-quarter US GDP activity suggest output may stabilize after two straight quarters of slower growth. This estimate should be viewed cautiously this early in the current quarter.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - Thursday, May 2
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged higher for a third straight month in April.
U.S. Recession Warning Via States Economies Was A False Alarm
U.S. recession risk remains low at the moment, based on the newsletter’s primary indicator, which aggregates several business-cycle metrics.
Momentum Retains Solid Lead For 2024 Equity Factor Returns
The momentum factor is on track to end April as it began: the strongest year-to-date performer among US equity factors
Is The Hot Inflation Data In Q1 Noise Or Signal?
Yesterday’s first-quarter GDP report delivered a one-two punch for markets: slower-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation. In reaction, stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose.
Does Reflation Risk Threaten The Risk-On Signal For Stocks?
Animal spirits have come off the boil lately, but these are still early days for deciding if risk-on sentiment for equities has hit a wall or is in a holding pattern that allows markets to consolidate the gains of late.
US Q1 GDP Growth Looks Set For Slowdown In Thursday’s Release
The US economy appears on track to post softer growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release on Thursday.
Will Commodities Continue To Outperform In 2024?
While commodities are the year’s big winner, there’s still room for debate on whether the latest move is more than a bounce within a trading range.
Is Israel’s Strike On Iran The End Or The Beginning?
Israel’s widely anticipated retaliatory military strike on Iran arrived earlier today, putting markets on edge as investors weigh the implications.
Rate-Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest
The only aspect of consistency in the market’s outlook for rate cuts lately has been pushing the expected date forward. Recent history falls in line with this trend and September is now seen as the earliest date for policy easing.
Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields
Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened.
Where’s The Downside Tipping Point For U.S. Stocks?
The S&P’s 20-day average is still comfortably above its 50- and 100-day counterparts.
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