Andre Gratian | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Owner at Market Turning Points
When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of mylife, and I frequently spend 8 or more hours per day in ...more

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Pushing Higher
The S&P 500 index has started its second up-phase from 3723.  This could take it above 4100 before it is ready for more consolidation.  
The Bullish Trend Continues
We are expecting major cycles to make their lows over the next few months. They are expected to bring about a decline which could easily exceed the 40% retracement of the March 2020 decline, but spread over a much longer time-period.
Market Paused In An Uptrend
The Federal Reserve had pushed interest rates to an abnormally low level in March 2020, and this could be a simple adjustment to a more normal level. A continued price decline toward the lower trend line that goes back to 2011 would be a concern.
Is The Uptrend Already Resuming?
After touching 3950, SPX retraced 220 points, found support at short-term highs, and rallied slightly past the former high without consolidating along the way. The question is: did we simply complete a B-wave, or are we ready to move to new highs?
It Is Time For Investors To Be Cautious
It is time to pay attention to the longer-term indicators, which are flashing a warning that we may be coming to the end of the bull market. This is substantiated by the high probability that long-term cycle lows lie directly ahead.
Current Position Of The Market: SPX, Money, Metals
Friday’s action took place in the outer half of the small channel, suggesting that the consolidation may soon come to an end -- probably after the SPX makes another trip to the bottom of the larger red channel. 
Is More Correction Needed?
Is more correction needed? The answer to that question is probably ‘yes,’ as we may require more correction before we can start the final move toward an intermediate high. Last week, IWM and SPX both pulled back, found support, and rallied.
Last Pull-Back Before Intermediate Top?
Except for some relative weakness in the last two days of the week, the Russell 2000 has kept up with the S&P 500, although even such a small margin of divergence has, in the past, indicated that a minor correction could lie ahead. 
Another Short-Term Dip Ahead?
With the short-term correction over, SPX has moved on to making a new all-time high. This should give way to another minor pull-back as the index continues its pattern until it reaches its intermediate target of about 4150.
Bump In The Road?
SPX is undergoing a short-term correction, which is already the deepest one since it started its intermediate move from 3234; but it is not expected to last longer than a couple more weeks, or to exceed a low of 3640.
Intermediate Trend Intact
IWM continues to keep up with SPX, suggesting that the intermediate trend is intact. It is noted, however, that the oscillators of both indices are showing some mild negative divergence. This could signal some trend deceleration ahead.
Short-Term Correction Underway, In Two Phases
This should be followed by a rebound and another decline into the end of the month. 
Short-Term Top Imminent
What a stock market. A pandemic out of control: New all-time highs. A mob attack on Washington: New all-time highs. A negative jobs report: New all-time highs. But market behavior is not exactly out of context when one looks to technical analysis.
Approaching An Important Target
For the first time since early September when the Russell 2000 issued a warning of an important top, it is showing relative weakness to SPX.  This is a sign that we are probably reaching an intermediate top which should be followed by a correction.
Congestion Top Forming?
There are two indexes which regularly give us advance warning of a market top. One is IWM and the other is TRAN. They both have an excellent track records but currently, they are out of sync with each other.
Awaiting Bill Relief Decision
There is no apparent intermediate top on the horizon, but the short-term will be determined by the timing and success of the next relief bill which is now being considered by congress.
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