Pushing Higher

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end (SPX). 

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX is starting on the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Pushing Higher

Cycles:  Looking ahead! 

90-yr cycle – Last lows: 1843-1933. Next low: ~2023 

40-yr cycle -- Last lows: 1942 -1982. Next low: ~2022 

7-yr cycle – Last lows: 2009-2016.  Next low: ~2023

Market Analysis (Charts, courtesy of QCharts) 

SPX vs. IWM

SPX ended the week at a new all-time high, on its way to the 4100-4150 target mentioned in last week’s newsletter.  So, the bullish trend continues, but this should not obscure the fact that we are getting close to the end of the move which started in 2009, both in terms of price and time.  

Based on the pattern created at the March low, we have several projections which could determine the final high, all the way to a potential extreme of 4400+, but we should be aware that this is, at best, an approximation of what the last tick will turn out to be and we will let the market decide at what point it wants to reverse.  

It has been a few weeks since we posted the following charts.  During that time, changes have occurred which have altered the relative strength between IWM and SPX.  For the past three weeks, IWM has been relatively weaker than SPX.  This should not cause immediate concern about the stock market; but if it persists, we will want to see if this warning spreads to more sensitive indicators (IWM).  

We know that time-proven major cycles are due to make their lows in the not-too-distant future and it is therefore only a matter of time before they start interfering with the bullish trend.      

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The above comments, as well as those made in the daily updates and the Market Summary about the financial markets, are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles. ...

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