The problem with this data mining (mind, I'm not saying it's not a legitimate endeavor) is that sometimes, things happen that could not be found in the data of the past. No-one expected in Japan in 1989 that a quarter century later, the Nikkei would STILL be 50% below the level reached at the time for instance. There is no need to go over what makes Japan special, the point is merely that none of it was obvious in real time. A look at the historical data would have been enough to declare it "impossible". It is in short not guaranteed that the "long term" will bail everybody out. It may, but it doesn't have to.
"There is a general view that Vladimir Putin governs the Russian Federation as a dictator, that he has defeated and intimidated his opponents and that he has marshaled a powerful threat to surrounding countries. This is a reasonable view..." - This is not a "reasonable view". Putin is not a "dictator" - he was elected and enjoys the public's support to an extent Western politicians can only be envious of. Yes, he HAS "defeated his opponents", otherwise someone else would be in his place. He has no need to "intimidate" said opponents, as the part of the political opposition in Russia that Mr. Friedman would likely regard as legitimate has basically almost no support to begin with (this may well be deplorable, but it is nevertheless a fact). The biggest domestic opponents of Putin are a great deal worse than Putin, namely the communists and assorted hard-right nationalists. That Russia represents a "threat" to neighboring countries is part of well-worn propaganda memes designed to keep us all afraid and agree to the assorted depredations of our own military-industrial complex. The fact that Russia helps the separatists in the Ukraine's East is little different from the US helping assorted rebels elsewhere over the decades. If anything, Russia seems to have better standing, since it helps fellow ethnic Russians who would otherwise be destined to be treated as second class citizens by the government in Kiev. By comparison, the legitimacy of US "interest" in arming Islamist insurgents in Syria is a lot less clear to name just one example.
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Correction Yes; Bear Probably Not Soon, But Possible — Key Indicators Discussed
The problem with this data mining (mind, I'm not saying it's not a legitimate endeavor) is that sometimes, things happen that could not be found in the data of the past. No-one expected in Japan in 1989 that a quarter century later, the Nikkei would STILL be 50% below the level reached at the time for instance. There is no need to go over what makes Japan special, the point is merely that none of it was obvious in real time. A look at the historical data would have been enough to declare it "impossible". It is in short not guaranteed that the "long term" will bail everybody out. It may, but it doesn't have to.
Can Putin Survive?
"There is a general view that Vladimir Putin governs the Russian Federation as a dictator, that he has defeated and intimidated his opponents and that he has marshaled a powerful threat to surrounding countries. This is a reasonable view..." - This is not a "reasonable view". Putin is not a "dictator" - he was elected and enjoys the public's support to an extent Western politicians can only be envious of. Yes, he HAS "defeated his opponents", otherwise someone else would be in his place. He has no need to "intimidate" said opponents, as the part of the political opposition in Russia that Mr. Friedman would likely regard as legitimate has basically almost no support to begin with (this may well be deplorable, but it is nevertheless a fact). The biggest domestic opponents of Putin are a great deal worse than Putin, namely the communists and assorted hard-right nationalists. That Russia represents a "threat" to neighboring countries is part of well-worn propaganda memes designed to keep us all afraid and agree to the assorted depredations of our own military-industrial complex. The fact that Russia helps the separatists in the Ukraine's East is little different from the US helping assorted rebels elsewhere over the decades. If anything, Russia seems to have better standing, since it helps fellow ethnic Russians who would otherwise be destined to be treated as second class citizens by the government in Kiev. By comparison, the legitimacy of US "interest" in arming Islamist insurgents in Syria is a lot less clear to name just one example.
Can Putin Survive?
The man with the 90% approval rating, can he "survive"?