Can Putin Survive?

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There is a general view that Vladimir Putin governs the Russian Federation as a dictator, that he has defeated and intimidated his opponents and that he has marshaled a powerful threat to surrounding countries. This is a reasonable view, but perhaps it should be re-evaluated in the context of recent events.


Ukraine and the Bid to Reverse Russia's Decline

Ukraine is, of course, the place to start. The country is vital to Russia as a buffer against the West and as a route for delivering energy to Europe, which is the foundation of the Russian economy. On Jan. 1, Ukraine's president was Viktor Yanukovich, generally regarded as favorably inclined to Russia. Given the complexity of Ukrainian society and politics, it would be unreasonable to say Ukraine under him was merely a Russian puppet. But it is fair to say that under Yanukovich and his supporters, fundamental Russian interests in Ukraine were secure.

This was extremely important to Putin. Part of the reason Putin had replaced Boris Yeltsin in 2000 was Yeltsin's performance during the Kosovo war. Russia was allied with the Serbs and had not wanted NATO to launch a war against Serbia. Russian wishes were disregarded. The Russian views simply didn't matter to the West. Still, when the air war failed to force Belgrade's capitulation, the Russians negotiated a settlement that allowed U.S. and other NATO troops to enter and administer Kosovo. As part of that settlement, Russian troops were promised a significant part in peacekeeping in Kosovo. But the Russians were never allowed to take up that role, and Yeltsin proved unable to respond to the insult.

Putin also replaced Yeltsin because of the disastrous state of the Russian economy. Though Russia had always been poor, there was a pervasive sense that it been a force to be reckoned with in international affairs. Under Yeltsin, however, Russia had become even poorer and was now held in contempt in international affairs. Putin had to deal with both issues. He took a long time before moving to recreate Russian power, though he said early on that the fall of the Soviet Union had been the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. This did not mean he wanted to resurrect the Soviet Union in its failed form, but rather that he wanted Russian power to be taken seriously again, and he wanted to protect and enhance Russian national interests.

The breaking point came in Ukraine during the Orange Revolution of 2004. Yanukovich was elected president that year under dubious circumstances, but demonstrators forced him to submit to a second election. He lost, and a pro-Western government took office. At that time, Putin accused the CIA and other Western intelligence agencies of having organized the demonstrations. Fairly publicly, this was the point when Putin became convinced that the West intended to destroy the Russian Federation, sending it the way of the Soviet Union. For him, Ukraine's importance to Russia was self-evident. He therefore believed that the CIA organized the demonstration to put Russia in a dangerous position, and that the only reason for this was the overarching desire to cripple or destroy Russia. Following the Kosovo affair, Putin publicly moved from suspicion to hostility to the West.

The Russians worked from 2004 to 2010 to undo the Orange Revolution. They worked to rebuild the Russian military, focus their intelligence apparatus and use whatever economic influence they had to reshape their relationship with Ukraine. If they couldn't control Ukraine, they did not want it to be controlled by the United States and Europe. This was, of course, not their only international interest, but it was the pivotal one.

Russia's invasion of Georgia had more to do with Ukraine than it had to do with the Caucasus. At the time, the United States was still bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. While Washington had no formal obligation to Georgia, there were close ties and implicit guarantees. The invasion of Georgia was designed to do two things. The first was to show the region that the Russian military, which had been in shambles in 2000, was able to act decisively in 2008. The second was to demonstrate to the region, and particularly to Kiev, that American guarantees, explicit or implicit, had no value. In 2010, Yanukovich was elected president of Ukraine, reversing the Orange Revolution and limiting Western influence in the country.

Recognizing the rift that was developing with Russia and the general trend against the United States in the region, the Obama administration tried to recreate older models of relationships when Hillary Clinton presented Putin with a "restart" button in 2009. But Washington wanted to restore the relationship in place during what Putin regarded as the "bad old days." He naturally had no interest in such a restart. Instead, he saw the United States as having adopted a defensive posture, and he intended to exploit his advantage.

One place he did so was in Europe, using EU dependence on Russian energy to grow closer to the Continent, particularly Germany. But his high point came during the Syrian affair, when the Obama administration threatened airstrikes after Damascus used chemical weapons only to back off from its threat. The Russians aggressively opposed Obama's move, proposing a process of negotiations instead. The Russians emerged from the crisis appearing decisive and capable, the United States indecisive and feckless. Russian power accordingly appeared on the rise, and in spite of a weakening economy, this boosted Putin's standing.


The Tide Turns Against Putin

Events in Ukraine this year, by contrast, have proved devastating to Putin. In January, Russia dominated Ukraine. By February, Yanukovich had fled the country and a pro-Western government had taken power. The general uprising against Kiev that Putin had been expecting in eastern Ukraine after Yanukovich's ouster never happened. Meanwhile, the Kiev government, with Western advisers, implanted itself more firmly. By July, the Russians controlled only small parts of Ukraine. These included Crimea, where the Russians had always held overwhelming military force by virtue of treaty, and a triangle of territory from Donetsk to Luhansk to Severodonetsk, where a small number of insurgents apparently supported by Russian special operations forces controlled a dozen or so towns.

If no Ukrainian uprising occurred, Putin's strategy was to allow the government in Kiev to unravel of its own accord and to split the United States from Europe by exploiting Russia's strong trade and energy ties with the Continent. And this is where the crash of the Malaysia Airlines jet is crucial. If it turns out — as appears to be the case — that Russia supplied air defense systems to the separatists and sent crews to man them (since operating those systems requires extensive training), Russia could be held responsible for shooting down the plane. And this means Moscow's ability to divide the Europeans from the Americans would decline. Putin then moves from being an effective, sophisticated ruler who ruthlessly uses power to being a dangerous incompetent supporting a hopeless insurrection with wholly inappropriate weapons. And the West, no matter how opposed some countries might be to a split with Putin, must come to grips with how effective and rational he really is.

Meanwhile, Putin must consider the fate of his predecessors. Nikita Khrushchev returned from vacation in October 1964 to find himself replaced by his protege, Leonid Brezhnev, and facing charges of, among other things, "harebrained scheming." Khrushchev had recently been humiliated in the Cuban missile crisis. This plus his failure to move the economy forward after about a decade in power saw his closest colleagues "retire" him. A massive setback in foreign affairs and economic failures had resulted in an apparently unassailable figure being deposed.

Russia's economic situation is nowhere near as catastrophic as it was under Khrushchev or Yeltsin, but it has deteriorated substantially recently, and perhaps more important, has failed to meet expectations. After recovering from the 2008 crisis, Russia has seen several years of declining gross domestic product growth rates, and its central bank is forecasting zero growth this year. Given current pressures, we would guess the Russian economy will slide into recession sometime in 2014. The debt levels of regional governments have doubled in the past four years, and several regions are close to bankruptcy. Moreover, some metals and mining firms are facing bankruptcy. The Ukrainian crisis has made things worse. Capital flight from Russia in the first six months stood at $76 billion, compared to $63 billion for all of 2013. Foreign direct investment fell 50 percent in the first half of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013. And all this happened in spite of oil prices remaining higher than $100 per barrel.

Putin's popularity at home soared after the successful Sochi Winter Olympics and after the Western media made him look like the aggressor in Crimea. He has, after all, built his reputation on being tough and aggressive. But as the reality of the situation in Ukraine becomes more obvious, the great victory will be seen as covering a retreat coming at a time of serious economic problems. For many leaders, the events in Ukraine would not represent such an immense challenge. But Putin has built his image on a tough foreign policy, and the economy meant his ratings were not very high before Ukraine.


Imagining Russia After Putin

In the sort of regime that Putin has helped craft, the democratic process may not be the key to understanding what will happen next. Putin has restored Soviet elements to the structure of the government, even using the term "Politburo" for his inner Cabinets. These are all men of his choosing, of course, and so one might assume they would be loyal to him. But in the Soviet-style Politburo, close colleagues were frequently the most feared.

The Politburo model is designed for a leader to build coalitions among factions. Putin has been very good at doing that, but then he has been very successful at all the things he has done until now. His ability to hold things together declines as trust in his abilities declines and various factions concerned about the consequences of remaining closely tied to a failing leader start to maneuver. Like Khrushchev, who was failing in economic and foreign policy, Putin could have his colleagues remove him.

It is difficult to know how a succession crisis would play out, given that the constitutional process of succession exists alongside the informal government Putin has created. From a democratic standpoint, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin are as popular as Putin is, and I suspect they both will become more popular in time. In a Soviet-style struggle, Chief of Staff Sergei Ivanov and Security Council Chief Nicolai Patryushev would be possible contenders. But there are others. Who, after all, expected the emergence of Mikhail Gorbachev?

Ultimately, politicians who miscalculate and mismanage tend not to survive. Putin miscalculated in Ukraine, failing to anticipate the fall of an ally, failing to respond effectively and then stumbling badly in trying to recoup. His management of the economy has not been exemplary of late either, to say the least. He has colleagues who believe they could do a better job, and now there are important people in Europe who would be glad to see him go. He must reverse this tide rapidly, or he may be replaced.

Putin is far from finished. But he has governed for 14 years counting the time Dmitri Medvedev was officially in charge, and that is a long time. He may well regain his footing, but as things stand at the moment, I would expect quiet thoughts to be stirring in his colleagues' minds. Putin himself must be re-examining his options daily. Retreating in the face of the West and accepting the status quo in Ukraine would be difficult, given that the Kosovo issue that helped propel him to power and given what he has said about Ukraine over the years. But the current situation cannot sustain itself. The wild card in this situation is that if Putin finds himself in serious political trouble, he might become more rather than less aggressive. Whether Putin is in real trouble is not something I can be certain of, but too many things have gone wrong for him lately for me not to consider the possibility. And as in any political crisis, more and more extreme options are contemplated if the situation deteriorates.

Those who think that Putin is both the most repressive and aggressive Russian leader imaginable should bear in mind that this is far from the case. Lenin, for example, was fearsome. But Stalin was much worse. There may similarly come a time when the world looks at the Putin era as a time of liberality. For if the struggle by Putin to survive, and by his challengers to displace him, becomes more intense, the willingness of all to become more brutal might well increase.

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Bob Drage 7 years ago Member's comment

MR PUTIN, WILL STILL REMAIN PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION,? IN THEYEAR 2050,? BECAUSE THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE TRUST HIM,? SO DO ALL EXPATS FROM ALL E.U. COUNTRIES LIVING IN RUSSIA,? MR PUTIN TELLS THE TRUTH TO THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE, UNLIKE CAMERON, OBAMA,, WHO LIE THOUGH THERE BACK TEETH, TO THE ELECTORATE,? DO THE BRITISH TRUST CAMERON, HOW MANY YANKS TRUST OBAMA,?? THERE WORD MEANS NOTHING? CAMERON., OBAMA, BUSH,, BLAIR,? ARE THE SCUMBAGS? THERE ACTIONS ARE NEO NAZIES,?

Alexa Graham 4 months ago Member's comment

Seems that you are probably right.

B Kfia 7 years ago Member's comment

This analysis lacks depth or direction. It ignores what is happening in Yemen (and why) ; it ignores the degree to which Putin's image depends upon propaganda that could be exposed leaving the would be Emperor with no clothing; it ignores what might be accomplished by a direct open full military intervention designed to destroy the Ukrainian Army and render Kyiv impotent if it succeeds --or fails; it ignores the power Putin's liaisons outside of Russia/the Kremlin give him over Kremlin insiders, etc. etc. What was the purpose of this article? What does it add to the cacophony of similar analyses? Nothing, I'm afraid.

Frank Underwood 4 months ago Member's comment

What is your current take on Putin?

Bob Drage 7 years ago Member's comment

B KFIA, I CAN SEE YOUR ANOTHER ARM CHAIR EXPERT, ON MR PUTIN, AND RUSSIA, WHO KNOW DOUBT HAS NEVER VISITED RUSSIA,,? THE REASON I SAY THIS,? YOUR LETTER IS ABOUT ON PARR WITH A MICKY MOUSE COMIC,? THERES 5000 OF US EXPATS BRITS LIVING RUSSIA, AND MANY IN CRIMEA,,? YOU READ TO MUCH AMERICAN PROPAGANDA, AND BIAS REPORTING, TELL MY WHY,?? MR PUTIN RELIANCE ON PROPAGADA, WHEN HE HAS A 89 PERCENT POPULARITY VOTE, EVEN US 5000 EXPATS BRITISH, SUPPORT MR PUTIN,? HE A VERY GOOD LEADER, THAT WILL BE THE DAY,? WHEN CAMERON, OR OBAMA, CAN GET AN 89 PERCENT POPULARITY VOTE,? NEVER MIND, JUST CARRY ON DREAMING, AND TAKING THE TABLETS,????

Frank Underwood 4 months ago Member's comment

What is your current take on Putin?

Sylvia Gary 7 years ago Member's comment

What a stupid question.....Of course Putin will survive and long after many other Prime Ministers and Presidents will.....

Adam Reynolds 4 months ago Member's comment

You were right. Putin is still here!

GOKE 7 months ago Member's comment

This post is an encyclopedia for those interested in Russia and West

Adam Reynolds 4 months ago Member's comment

You are right. It's fascinating to read this old take on Putin, in light of what's happening today.

Corsiero Corsieri 7 years ago Member's comment

Definitely not, on the simple account that he is not recognised as a reliable interlocutor any more...

Andrzej Tereszkiewicz 7 years ago Member's comment

Mam nadzieję, że jego chwile są policzone

Jaun Einsig 7 years ago Member's comment
What a bunch of HYPOCRITES, lying to protect Putin who is actually, a coward, murderer, thief, and these so called Russian's are promoting his phony deception all across Russia, with these absolutely despicable low life's. In reality they are bring more pain & suffering to their brothers & sisters in Russia. You have a lot to fear now, all your stations are now under surveillance, and what for a few near worthless Rubles. Watch who is standing around outside, you really are a bunch of stooges, finks, or rats of betray your own comrades.????
Angelo Cinarelli 7 years ago Member's comment

Before talk turn on your brain!!

Bob Drage 7 years ago Member's comment

TALK OF COWARDS, THERES NO BIGGER COWARDS THAN THE YANKS,? OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE TO FIGHT YOUR WARS FOR YOU,? WHEN HAS AMERICA EVER GONE TO WAR ON IT'S OWN,? NEVER, THEY ARE SPINELESS, GUTLESS,? AND TALK OF MURDER,? SINCE WWII, AMERICA HAS BOMBED AND SMASHED OVER 50 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES. ALL YOU GET FROM THE YANKS, IS ONE LIE AFTER ANOTHER, W.M.D.?

179 BRITISH SOLDIERS, MY COUNTRYMAN, DIED BECAUSE OF BUSH'S LIES, IN IRAQ,? BUSH, BLAIR. SHOULD BE AT THE HAGUE, ON TRIAL FOR GENOCIDE,? THE BRITISH ELCTORATE. WANT BLAIR THERE,? HOW MANY YANKS WANT BUSH TO STAND TRIAL,?

NONE,? ALL AMERICA WANTS TO DO, IS GO TO WAR,? YOUR POLITICIIANS ARE ALL WAR MONGERS, THERES BEEN TWO WORLD WARS IN EUROPE, NEVER AGAIN,??

IF EVER THERE IS A WW III, LETS HOLD IT ON AMERICAN SOIL,? AMERICA HAS NEVER BEEN BOMBED,? YOU THINK 9/11 WAS BAD,? WAIT UNTILL ALL YOUR CITES IN AMERICA ARE FLATTED,? ONCE AMERICA HAS EXPERIENCED SEEING THERE COUNTRY BOMBED,? THEN THEY WILL STOP WARMONERING?

IN THE EYES OF THE BRITISH,? AMERICA. CAN PISS OFF? AND TAKE YOUR BASES WITH YOU, ONLY PRATTS LIKE CAMERON, LIKE YOUR YANKIE NEO NAZI POLITICIANS.

THE BRITISH PEOPLE, TRUST THE YANKS LIKE A RABID DOG,?

Dan Boy 7 years ago Member's comment

This piece of Work, Upvotes Himself...How Moronic...

Alexis Renault 7 years ago Member's comment

Every comment starts with one upvote. Not sure why you downvoted yourself.

Dan Boy 7 years ago Member's comment

179, Big Deal, Look at what they did in Northern Ireland, let alone they Invented Concentration Camps, Indian people tied over Cannons Bores, Calcutta Hell Holes, Please... Butchers

Sergey Hudiev 7 years ago Member's comment

I'm from Russia, Moscow. I'm afraid, I don't understand, what you talking about.

Wolf Angel 7 years ago Member's comment

Exactly. The view from the inside is much different. I've a friend formerly from Moscow, and he views Russia's decline as inevitable. So much of your personal perceptions depend on the frame of reference you exist in.

Anastasija Janevska 4 months ago Member's comment

What does your friend think about the current situation?

Art Michel 7 years ago Member's comment

Wolf Angel..very astute of you. I want to share a thought of something that I just read online as it relates to "The best advice ever given by your father". It states that one should consider other points of views and was submitted by Mr. Mohamed El-Erian and go goes like this: "Unless you read different points of view, your mind will eventually close and you'll become a prisoner to a certain point of view that you'll never question". There is no doubt that most if not all world leaders hold back on the whole truth, if not lie directly to us but one must understand that as unfortunate as this sounds, it is at times (under certain circumstances), a necessity. I support but do not trust nor like my American government as it is functioning today. I also, can say the same for most of the world's governments as well. The point is to communicate intelligently and without prejudice.

Henry Caruana 7 years ago Member's comment

Probably are short time survival Let say 25 - 30 years then retire to Sochi

Joseph Thomas 7 years ago Member's comment

putin is the best