Chris, thanks for this incredible article. I have committed to trading volatility in my options acct for the last 18mths (via Uvxy puts and Vix 15 calls 3-4 mths out when Vix tests quarterly lows) and my acct has blown up. In a good way.
However, i've struggled to find consistent buy/sell points for Uvxy, and when to fully commit to Vix calls. Your cycle chart is a great tool to have, and your article will help send me down a new path of learning that will no doubt help me in the future..
Jennifer, since the Mar '09 bottom, the Dow has back tested every 1k round number break (with the exception of the 7k level, since it was only 300pts above that low), anywhere from the same week to 6wks later, and also resulting in a number of severe pullbacks following. Fyi.....
As for the S&P, same story, and since the 1550 2007 high break, every ATH has been back tested also. Oh, except one, the 2214 breakout. Mkts dropped to 2233 on 12/30/16, never quite got there. Markets tend to sniff out those gaps when the selling starts...
"as long as it stays above that base at 20000, the chances of seeing 20500-700 are very strong."
Paul, fyi. Since the start of this bull market, the Dow has back tested every 1k round number break (with the exception of the 7k break, since it was only 300pts above the March '09 bottom), and in some cases, resulted in severe pull backs and/or corrections.
The same can be said for the S&P, which has back tested every break since the 800 level, and has yet to back test the 2214 all-time high break (again, every ATH break has been back tested since breaking the 2007 top).
Certainly 2 magnets once we do see some selling...
Curious how 'total US debt' is 70 trillion, 50trill above the current total national debt of 20trill. And i have yet to hear any estimate of unfunded liabilities over 80-100trill (although magnificent in those totals), yet you mention 200trill.
Granted, the future isn't the brightest yet listening to someone from any 'Gold' association tell me i need to buy gold is just a bit like the car salesman telling me i need to buy that Corvette because it's 'me'.
Lance, outstanding article. I've been trading for 7 years, full time for the last 2. I continually look for authors, like yourself, who ask the questions that most don't want to hear, or answer. I keep a list of 10 who i read regularly, and i do this because they, as a group, help me maintain a neutral bias and keep an open mind into every week.
I call my list "Anti-#Cramer Inc.". And you're a member, thanks, this was the best article i've read in quite awhile, along with anything Brett Steenbarger has to offer.
It's all about time frames, of course. So if you check the monthly chart with the same moving averages, the 50 has passed down thru the 100 for the 1ST time in at least 14yrs (as far back as TOS goes on the /GC)
Check $XAU, the 50 break down is more pronounced and price has just lost the 50 after breaking up thru it.
Gary, why do you feel that way.? If they were to, it would force the gov't to address it. There is no current accounting principle that not only forces them to address it, there is nothing in place to force politicians to address their constituents in regards to it.
Steve, great article, Thnx.! Gov't relies on con't sleight of hand for ops to continue. CPI calc changed 8 times since 1980, though we know that energy/food are excluded, how is inflation so low when rents are at all time highs.? And why isn't healthcare, the single greatest tax, included.?
BLS figures are, again, another sleight of hand, as a 4.6 UR is massively misleading, for reasons we all know: work 1hr a week and a job has been created, yet no weighting on PT v FT. Similar to ludicrous manner in which the Dow is weighted.
In the end, misleads run amuck, which gives our career poliicians plenty of time to kick the can, then blame the other party as the 'grass is greener' public cont's to bounce back and forth between each political party looking for a resolution.
One that'll never come, as their pensions slowly erode
I feel that we have a little upside from here myself, but give me 2180-85 and i'll close the longs i have (although i'll be long volatility early this week)
Upon hearing Gundlach say that Thursday's close was a juicy short, that's all i need to hear, i'll close out and watch. To get 'rally caps' and a basic daily chart, for me, just lacks the type of market analysis i'm used to getting from TalkMarkets, especially after reading superb analysis from Chris Ciovacco, Doug Short and countless others...
Latest Comments
Vix Cycles Set To Explode In March/April 2017 – Part 2
Chris, thanks for this incredible article. I have committed to trading volatility in my options acct for the last 18mths (via Uvxy puts and Vix 15 calls 3-4 mths out when Vix tests quarterly lows) and my acct has blown up. In a good way.
However, i've struggled to find consistent buy/sell points for Uvxy, and when to fully commit to Vix calls. Your cycle chart is a great tool to have, and your article will help send me down a new path of learning that will no doubt help me in the future..
Appreciate your work....!! Jim McKee
Bulls & Bears: A Look At The Dow Jones Beyond 20,000
Jennifer, since the Mar '09 bottom, the Dow has back tested every 1k round number break (with the exception of the 7k level, since it was only 300pts above that low), anywhere from the same week to 6wks later, and also resulting in a number of severe pullbacks following. Fyi.....
As for the S&P, same story, and since the 1550 2007 high break, every ATH has been back tested also. Oh, except one, the 2214 breakout. Mkts dropped to 2233 on 12/30/16, never quite got there. Markets tend to sniff out those gaps when the selling starts...
Good luck....
Crude, Oil, Silver Markets Briefing
"as long as it stays above that base at 20000, the chances of seeing 20500-700 are very strong."
Paul, fyi. Since the start of this bull market, the Dow has back tested every 1k round number break (with the exception of the 7k break, since it was only 300pts above the March '09 bottom), and in some cases, resulted in severe pull backs and/or corrections.
The same can be said for the S&P, which has back tested every break since the 800 level, and has yet to back test the 2214 all-time high break (again, every ATH break has been back tested since breaking the 2007 top).
Certainly 2 magnets once we do see some selling...
Pound, Dollar, Euro And Yen Will Be Worthless Within Five Years?
Curious how 'total US debt' is 70 trillion, 50trill above the current total national debt of 20trill. And i have yet to hear any estimate of unfunded liabilities over 80-100trill (although magnificent in those totals), yet you mention 200trill.
Granted, the future isn't the brightest yet listening to someone from any 'Gold' association tell me i need to buy gold is just a bit like the car salesman telling me i need to buy that Corvette because it's 'me'.
Technically Speaking: Common Trading Mistakes
Lance, outstanding article. I've been trading for 7 years, full time for the last 2. I continually look for authors, like yourself, who ask the questions that most don't want to hear, or answer. I keep a list of 10 who i read regularly, and i do this because they, as a group, help me maintain a neutral bias and keep an open mind into every week.
I call my list "Anti-#Cramer Inc.". And you're a member, thanks, this was the best article i've read in quite awhile, along with anything Brett Steenbarger has to offer.
Appreciate all your hard work....!
Chart Of The Day – Golden Cross
It's all about time frames, of course. So if you check the monthly chart with the same moving averages, the 50 has passed down thru the 100 for the 1ST time in at least 14yrs (as far back as TOS goes on the /GC)
Check $XAU, the 50 break down is more pronounced and price has just lost the 50 after breaking up thru it.
Time frames...
Accounting Gimmicks Won’t Stop The U.S.A. Titanic From Sinking
Gary, why do you feel that way.? If they were to, it would force the gov't to address it. There is no current accounting principle that not only forces them to address it, there is nothing in place to force politicians to address their constituents in regards to it.
Accounting Gimmicks Won’t Stop The U.S.A. Titanic From Sinking
Steve, great article, Thnx.! Gov't relies on con't sleight of hand for ops to continue. CPI calc changed 8 times since 1980, though we know that energy/food are excluded, how is inflation so low when rents are at all time highs.? And why isn't healthcare, the single greatest tax, included.? BLS figures are, again, another sleight of hand, as a 4.6 UR is massively misleading, for reasons we all know: work 1hr a week and a job has been created, yet no weighting on PT v FT. Similar to ludicrous manner in which the Dow is weighted. In the end, misleads run amuck, which gives our career poliicians plenty of time to kick the can, then blame the other party as the 'grass is greener' public cont's to bounce back and forth between each political party looking for a resolution. One that'll never come, as their pensions slowly erode
Rally Caps
I feel that we have a little upside from here myself, but give me 2180-85 and i'll close the longs i have (although i'll be long volatility early this week)
Upon hearing Gundlach say that Thursday's close was a juicy short, that's all i need to hear, i'll close out and watch. To get 'rally caps' and a basic daily chart, for me, just lacks the type of market analysis i'm used to getting from TalkMarkets, especially after reading superb analysis from Chris Ciovacco, Doug Short and countless others...