Thanks for the thoughtful response. I think your point about long-term investments being disinflationary through productivity makes sense. My lingering concern is whether those gains will be large enough — and fast enough — to counterbalance the structural issues you noted. Historically, productivity booms that supported middle-class expansion were tied to strong labor institutions, robust public investment, and a different global competitive landscape.
On the inflation point: the historical 3.3% average is interesting, though the context was a century of very different demographics, globalization dynamics, and debt levels. With the U.S. now carrying far higher public debt and experiencing tighter labor markets, I wonder whether raising the inflation target would risk eroding real wages before productivity gains fully materialize.
So overall, I’m optimistic about the investment wave, but I’m not sure the policy framework is aligned yet to make the benefits as broad-based or durable as hoped.
You say the U.S. is at an inflection point because of huge investments and a revival of industries like energy and AI infrastructure — but how sustainable are these advantages given the structural risks you mentioned (e.g. rising debt, potential AI-driven job losses, inflation, policy uncertainty)?
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