I am not nearly as concerned as the two of you. #Trump is a lot of things (many of them bad). But he is a great deal maker - I'd much rather have him on our side of any negotiation. And while we may not be privy to the finder details, when were we ever?
Did #Obama let us know about his deals, such as when he gave hundreds of million (maybe more) in ransom to #Iran to secure the release of American? Or when he reached a nuclear agreement with Iran, which entrusted them to inspect their own facilities?
We've been on the losing side of deals for a long time. Trump will squeeze the best arrangement he can.
I too would like to know what #Trump has been offering all these companies to close these deals. I don't trust him. But saying the deal with #Softbank will only lead to more homelessness is a big leap. What are you basing that on?
@[Joe Johnson](user:35978), while to a large extent you are correct about the "Broken Window Fallacy," that doesn't take into consideration those who save money rather than pump it back into the economy. As an extension, that's the reason why I think #Trump will fail with his policies is because when companies get tax breaks, they horde the money, they don't give it to their employees.
These are great charts. The Republicans could have helped Obama
with more stimulus, but chose political power over helping the economy. Now, #Trump has inherited a mess caused by his own party. If he cannot fix it, he will be fired and that won't be attributed to Russian propaganda, but to his disfunctional party.
The last thing we want is hot Asian money to come in and buy up our assets which have been mainly buying up hot properties. It helps #Trump's assets but at the cost of out of control housing inflation. I have the feeling #Softbank's deal will only make more Americans homeless although no one knows the details because he is not President and feels that he has no need to disclose deals he makes in the name of the American people. This sounds very Hillaryish and is why people didn't want her in office. The perception of corruption is another word for this secret deal making.
That's a creepy comment for #Trump to make (though he is the king of creepy comments). We can agree to disagree on Israel, but America's policy of regime change has nothing to with any country but America.
As for Israel, we've gotten far more from our alliance with them. Not to mentioned the countless medical and technical advances that have benefited the entire world. All those who argue that we should boycott Israel would likely not get far in life if they truly boycotted EVERYthing that came out of that little country on the other end of the world. Check out this great list, I think you'll be surprised:
We tolerate far more from countries who kill thousands of their own people or who openly support anti-America rhetoric, not to mention countries who supported and helped hide Bin Laden. Sad.
Can you really claim that #Trump is Anti-Semitic when his own daughter, #Ivanka is Jewish? He seems to have an unhealthy attraction to her, and an obvious appreciation for her husband's business and political acumen (Jared #Kushner). And there's nothing wrong with being pro-Zionist... a strong #Israel makes for a strong America.
Remember that #Trump will not destroy all free trade. He makes stuff out of the country. And Al, my aunt's car broken down in the desert when I was 7 and it was 110 degrees has nothing to do with an Ivory Tower. How more real can you be, stuck in the middle of the desert in a top of the line blue beautiful Buick? Stuff is made in superior fashion now, and there are big dangers to tariffs. The economy will slow down if too many tariffs are thrown up, unless you get a lot of nations to start bringing factories here. If it is profitable, in certain industries, tariffs are appropriate. As an article on Business Insider explained back in 2010, there were already 12,000 tariffs on products in industries that our government has chosen to protect. www.businessinsider.com/americas-biggest-tariffs-2010-9
Remember those shoes I talked about? There is still a 37 percent tariff on leather shoes, Al.
He's likely going to continue offering tax incentives in order to prevent manufacturing jobs from leaving the US. Most notably, the #Carrier deal organized by #Trump and Indiana Governor where they offered carrier 7 million dollars in incentives for maintaining the factory in Indiana
Your predictions are antithetical to more than 100 years (1816-1967) of real world experience as the most tariff protected nation on earth.
You are clinging to an Ivory Tower theory. In the real world tariff protection made us wealthy while free trade has resulted in declining prosperity for the vast majority of Americans. Enough Americans no longer believe the myth of free trade to make #Trump president. Are you also a member of the Flat Earth Society?
If you take the real (inflation adjusted) wages of American blue collar workers from 1947 to their peak in 1972 and project the trend to today and compare that trend line number to what they have failed to gain the wage loss is greater than the lower prices, if any, from free trade. The last time I did that calculation the required wage increase was 80 percent. It varies from month to month but unlikely to change much. I used a least squared fit in a PERL script. Let me know if you get a different number.
To the extent that free trade produces lower prices then those lower prices would tend to push real (inflation adjusted) wages up yet blue collar wages today are below what they were in 1972. The inescapable conclusion from that fact is that combination of price and wages have worked to the disadvantage of American blue collar workers.
Let me also point out that there exists no peer reviewed economic analysis proving free trade produces lower price. Moreover, the lower prices argument assumes that consumer price is directly related to cost. Economic theory says that is wrong. Price is determined by what the market will bear not cost of production. Consider the margins Apple gets. If Foxconn charges them less to assemble them are they really going to reduce price below what the market will give them? The same considerations apply if #Trump requires #Apple to make them here.
Now that you accurately predicted a #Trump win, how did these stock picks work out for you @[John Thomas](user:21421)? What kind of time-frame should we be looking at?
I still think monetary or very long bond solutions are preferable to shorter term deficit spending. #Trump people are at least talking about the 100-year bond.
My biggest concern with #Trump is that he seems to lack any sort of filter. And he wields his #Twitter account like a weapon without thinking. That's one thing when you are a private individual. It is another when you are the president representing all of America to the world!
Thanks @[Harry Dent](user:5932), I hadn't expected a #Trump win, but once he did, I had thought the markets would crash and #gold to skyrocket. Thanks for putting some clarity on the situation. But what about @[Gary Tanashian](user:4809)'s comment below?
The Art Of The Autocrat
I am not nearly as concerned as the two of you. #Trump is a lot of things (many of them bad). But he is a great deal maker - I'd much rather have him on our side of any negotiation. And while we may not be privy to the finder details, when were we ever?
Did #Obama let us know about his deals, such as when he gave hundreds of million (maybe more) in ransom to #Iran to secure the release of American? Or when he reached a nuclear agreement with Iran, which entrusted them to inspect their own facilities?
We've been on the losing side of deals for a long time. Trump will squeeze the best arrangement he can.
The Art Of The Autocrat
I too would like to know what #Trump has been offering all these companies to close these deals. I don't trust him. But saying the deal with #Softbank will only lead to more homelessness is a big leap. What are you basing that on?
My Housekeeper Has a Nicer Car Than Me
@[Joe Johnson](user:35978), while to a large extent you are correct about the "Broken Window Fallacy," that doesn't take into consideration those who save money rather than pump it back into the economy. As an extension, that's the reason why I think #Trump will fail with his policies is because when companies get tax breaks, they horde the money, they don't give it to their employees.
Our "Gaslight" Economy
These are great charts. The Republicans could have helped Obama
with more stimulus, but chose political power over helping the economy. Now, #Trump has inherited a mess caused by his own party. If he cannot fix it, he will be fired and that won't be attributed to Russian propaganda, but to his disfunctional party.
The Art Of The Autocrat
The last thing we want is hot Asian money to come in and buy up our assets which have been mainly buying up hot properties. It helps #Trump's assets but at the cost of out of control housing inflation. I have the feeling #Softbank's deal will only make more Americans homeless although no one knows the details because he is not President and feels that he has no need to disclose deals he makes in the name of the American people. This sounds very Hillaryish and is why people didn't want her in office. The perception of corruption is another word for this secret deal making.
Trump Part IV – The Causes and Uses of An Economic Crisis
That's a creepy comment for #Trump to make (though he is the king of creepy comments). We can agree to disagree on Israel, but America's policy of regime change has nothing to with any country but America.
As for Israel, we've gotten far more from our alliance with them. Not to mentioned the countless medical and technical advances that have benefited the entire world. All those who argue that we should boycott Israel would likely not get far in life if they truly boycotted EVERYthing that came out of that little country on the other end of the world. Check out this great list, I think you'll be surprised:
www.facebook.com/.../820698877940154/
We tolerate far more from countries who kill thousands of their own people or who openly support anti-America rhetoric, not to mention countries who supported and helped hide Bin Laden. Sad.
Trump Part IV – The Causes and Uses of An Economic Crisis
Can you really claim that #Trump is Anti-Semitic when his own daughter, #Ivanka is Jewish? He seems to have an unhealthy attraction to her, and an obvious appreciation for her husband's business and political acumen (Jared #Kushner). And there's nothing wrong with being pro-Zionist... a strong #Israel makes for a strong America.
Trump Part IV – The Causes and Uses of An Economic Crisis
Remember that #Trump will not destroy all free trade. He makes stuff out of the country. And Al, my aunt's car broken down in the desert when I was 7 and it was 110 degrees has nothing to do with an Ivory Tower. How more real can you be, stuck in the middle of the desert in a top of the line blue beautiful Buick? Stuff is made in superior fashion now, and there are big dangers to tariffs. The economy will slow down if too many tariffs are thrown up, unless you get a lot of nations to start bringing factories here. If it is profitable, in certain industries, tariffs are appropriate. As an article on Business Insider explained back in 2010, there were already 12,000 tariffs on products in industries that our government has chosen to protect. www.businessinsider.com/americas-biggest-tariffs-2010-9
Remember those shoes I talked about? There is still a 37 percent tariff on leather shoes, Al.
Thomas Friedman: Automation Is Killing Jobs
He's likely going to continue offering tax incentives in order to prevent manufacturing jobs from leaving the US. Most notably, the #Carrier deal organized by #Trump and Indiana Governor where they offered carrier 7 million dollars in incentives for maintaining the factory in Indiana
Trump Part IV – The Causes and Uses of An Economic Crisis
Your predictions are antithetical to more than 100 years (1816-1967) of real world experience as the most tariff protected nation on earth.
You are clinging to an Ivory Tower theory. In the real world tariff protection made us wealthy while free trade has resulted in declining prosperity for the vast majority of Americans. Enough Americans no longer believe the myth of free trade to make #Trump president. Are you also a member of the Flat Earth Society?
Trump Part IV – The Causes and Uses of An Economic Crisis
If you take the real (inflation adjusted) wages of American blue collar workers from 1947 to their peak in 1972 and project the trend to today and compare that trend line number to what they have failed to gain the wage loss is greater than the lower prices, if any, from free trade. The last time I did that calculation the required wage increase was 80 percent. It varies from month to month but unlikely to change much. I used a least squared fit in a PERL script. Let me know if you get a different number.
To the extent that free trade produces lower prices then those lower prices would tend to push real (inflation adjusted) wages up yet blue collar wages today are below what they were in 1972. The inescapable conclusion from that fact is that combination of price and wages have worked to the disadvantage of American blue collar workers.
Let me also point out that there exists no peer reviewed economic analysis proving free trade produces lower price. Moreover, the lower prices argument assumes that consumer price is directly related to cost. Economic theory says that is wrong. Price is determined by what the market will bear not cost of production. Consider the margins Apple gets. If Foxconn charges them less to assemble them are they really going to reduce price below what the market will give them? The same considerations apply if #Trump requires #Apple to make them here.
Stock Picks For A Trump Win In November
Now that you accurately predicted a #Trump win, how did these stock picks work out for you @[John Thomas](user:21421)? What kind of time-frame should we be looking at?
Trump Should Absolutely Issue 100-Year Bonds
I still think monetary or very long bond solutions are preferable to shorter term deficit spending. #Trump people are at least talking about the 100-year bond.
Trump Should Absolutely Issue 100-Year Bonds
I'd say we should probably issue a few trillion dollars in 100 year bonds and spend that money on infrastructure, asap.
Here's an interesting and related story on CNBC. Apparently #Trump is a Keynesian.
www.cnbc.com/.../...ho-supported-clinton-says.html
Politics Vs Reality
My biggest concern with #Trump is that he seems to lack any sort of filter. And he wields his #Twitter account like a weapon without thinking. That's one thing when you are a private individual. It is another when you are the president representing all of America to the world!
Why Gold Isn’t Rallying After Trump’s Win
Thanks @[Harry Dent](user:5932), I hadn't expected a #Trump win, but once he did, I had thought the markets would crash and #gold to skyrocket. Thanks for putting some clarity on the situation. But what about @[Gary Tanashian](user:4809)'s comment below?