#Trump's acts inhibiting free trade and creating trade barriers by taxes will have an even worse chilling effect on growth and cause inflation to boot. That said, his budgetary ambitions are only acceptable when compared to #Hillary Clinton. The Republicans have elected a Democrat when it comes to spending. It is up to them to reign him in.
#Trump wants to spend an exorbitant amount of money which is why I derided the Republican choice early on. Still, it's better than #Clinton. In either case, Congress' job is to manage the nations purse like it is their job to manage the Federal Reserve. Hopefully they, won't fail us twice by giving that duty away.
The snowball is a big bully named #Trump who got into office talking about getting government out of business and is instead injecting government into it. We still await real measures that cut bureaucracy, taxes, etc. Even so, talking up and down stocks in an irate fashion by the President and implying threats to do things is causing chaos the longer it continues.
They refuse to trust their guru, #MiltonFriedman. Helicopter money crosses that divide between the financial economy and the real economy. Base money for the people is a no brainier. I think the Fed knows this, but doesn't really care. It just does not care. It would rather risk the rise of people like #Trump than to share base money with the real economy.
This is the first real result of #Trump policies. I hope future ones will be kinder in many senses of the word and more well thought out. Regardless of what's fair, the world watches the US closely because we are a role model.
Expectations for #Trump are mostly fueled by Trump himself. And yes, they are most likely way too high. Reagan and Obama came in as the economy bottomed. #Reagan did better as #Obama got sidetracked by #Obamacare and then the Republicans took the house and wouldn't let him do anything. Moral to that story is do something when you have the votes. Trump has the votes but maybe not the economy with which to achieve much more.
#Reagan was a spender. #Trump may shrink GDP with a trade war. And companies are awash with cash. Tax cuts will not spur a whole lot of investment if companies are only interested in holding cash because they fear the financial system. Trump may spur a few new factories but port business will slow as a result. The factories will pay poorly and high paying port jobs may diminish.
Lenders are drooling to lend to people who cannot pay it back, Bernard. What will be interesting is to actually see if lenders are equipped with guaranteed loans that are toxic. Maybe #Trump wants to cut other things out of the budget in order to prepare for the next housing bubble, a guaranteed one by the Federal Government.
Companies know not to get on #Trump's bad side, but it will hopefully be the average American who benefits from this. And while yes, many companies were planning these expansions anyway, pressure from Trump can't hurt to ensure those jobs stay in the US. Plus a little good PR never hurt a company. $WMT$AMZN
You hit the nail on the head. #Trump is a complete wild card. I would not be surpriused if his instability causes market turmoil or even wars. On the other hand, he could surprise us all and make some amazing progress (if he can keep his ego in check and his mouth/tweets filtered). It will certainly be an interesting year, but one also filled with uncertainty and anxiety.
Most people I talk to fear #Trump's instability. He has not helped himself with his relentless tweets as his enemy list seems to grow almost daily. What issues I agree with him about are on the back burner. His economics is reckless at best.
I expect #Trump to be as soft on banks as Hillary given his newfound ties with Goldman and his lack of care about his campaign promises to be tough on them including his reversal in reinstating Glass-Stegall which is America's best hope of preventing a downturn like the last one.
Seems like #Trump wants much higher rates, hoping that this would cause the long rates to go up. If that happened, maybe he wants another housing bubble, with teaser rates. That would not be a solid foundation for recovery, but would end up being, like the last housing crash, a con on the middle class. The Fed could step in to prop up prices unlike last decade. But then that would be a massive tax on renters. Hard to please all the people all the time. But a bubble in real estate is hardly sustainable. The millennials will be sensitive to that bubble and may not want to play that musical chair game.
If Trump thinks that saddling the middle class with more debt would be an economic victory he is a predator not unlike George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. They allowed easy money toxic loans. Is that what Trump calls recovery? He will be same ole as the other globalist tools.
Great charts, must read. Considering people already knew Donald #Trump had won, this slowing of non gasoline retail growth certainly doesn't justify a lot of Wall Street exuberance.
Don't call it a #Trump rally. It is not and until he takes office no bounce is his doing. We shall see what happens the week after next and on. I feel the politicization of stock market reporting is tragically deceiving a lot of people. As we can see with these charts the movement is not that unusual and is a continuation of the recent rally before Trump.
Enjoy it before rates go up, inflation rears its head, and the Fed cuts its support. The result of this will mostly be non Trump related as well, however, he can make it worse by precipitating a global trade war.
Financing US Twin Deficits: Reliance On The Kindness Of Foreigners
#Trump's acts inhibiting free trade and creating trade barriers by taxes will have an even worse chilling effect on growth and cause inflation to boot. That said, his budgetary ambitions are only acceptable when compared to #Hillary Clinton. The Republicans have elected a Democrat when it comes to spending. It is up to them to reign him in.
Richard Maybury: Trump Will Spend Astounding Amounts Of Money
#Trump wants to spend an exorbitant amount of money which is why I derided the Republican choice early on. Still, it's better than #Clinton. In either case, Congress' job is to manage the nations purse like it is their job to manage the Federal Reserve. Hopefully they, won't fail us twice by giving that duty away.
Does A Snowball Have A Chance In Hell?
The snowball is a big bully named #Trump who got into office talking about getting government out of business and is instead injecting government into it. We still await real measures that cut bureaucracy, taxes, etc. Even so, talking up and down stocks in an irate fashion by the President and implying threats to do things is causing chaos the longer it continues.
Review 2011: The FOMC Begins A Debate That Should Have Been Instead Closing
They refuse to trust their guru, #MiltonFriedman. Helicopter money crosses that divide between the financial economy and the real economy. Base money for the people is a no brainier. I think the Fed knows this, but doesn't really care. It just does not care. It would rather risk the rise of people like #Trump than to share base money with the real economy.
Dow 20,000: Real Or Memorex?
This is the first real result of #Trump policies. I hope future ones will be kinder in many senses of the word and more well thought out. Regardless of what's fair, the world watches the US closely because we are a role model.
Trump's Embracing Unions Will Cause Economic And Oil Strife
I'm greatly concerned that #Trump is in the white house. I'm willing to give the man a chance, but for now, I'm worried.
Are Expectations Too High For Trump?
Expectations for #Trump are mostly fueled by Trump himself. And yes, they are most likely way too high. Reagan and Obama came in as the economy bottomed. #Reagan did better as #Obama got sidetracked by #Obamacare and then the Republicans took the house and wouldn't let him do anything. Moral to that story is do something when you have the votes. Trump has the votes but maybe not the economy with which to achieve much more.
Trump Markets and The Future
#Reagan was a spender. #Trump may shrink GDP with a trade war. And companies are awash with cash. Tax cuts will not spur a whole lot of investment if companies are only interested in holding cash because they fear the financial system. Trump may spur a few new factories but port business will slow as a result. The factories will pay poorly and high paying port jobs may diminish.
The Big "Ifs" Of The Next Four Years
Lenders are drooling to lend to people who cannot pay it back, Bernard. What will be interesting is to actually see if lenders are equipped with guaranteed loans that are toxic. Maybe #Trump wants to cut other things out of the budget in order to prepare for the next housing bubble, a guaranteed one by the Federal Government.
Companies Scramble to Avoid the "Trump Tweet"
Companies know not to get on #Trump's bad side, but it will hopefully be the average American who benefits from this. And while yes, many companies were planning these expansions anyway, pressure from Trump can't hurt to ensure those jobs stay in the US. Plus a little good PR never hurt a company. $WMT $AMZN
Off To An Interesting Start
You hit the nail on the head. #Trump is a complete wild card. I would not be surpriused if his instability causes market turmoil or even wars. On the other hand, he could surprise us all and make some amazing progress (if he can keep his ego in check and his mouth/tweets filtered). It will certainly be an interesting year, but one also filled with uncertainty and anxiety.
Off To An Interesting Start
Most people I talk to fear #Trump's instability. He has not helped himself with his relentless tweets as his enemy list seems to grow almost daily. What issues I agree with him about are on the back burner. His economics is reckless at best.
How Trump Could Save Deutsche Bank And The European Financial Sector
I expect #Trump to be as soft on banks as Hillary given his newfound ties with Goldman and his lack of care about his campaign promises to be tough on them including his reversal in reinstating Glass-Stegall which is America's best hope of preventing a downturn like the last one.
Will The US Property Markets Emerge From The Current State Of Flux Stronger?
Seems like #Trump wants much higher rates, hoping that this would cause the long rates to go up. If that happened, maybe he wants another housing bubble, with teaser rates. That would not be a solid foundation for recovery, but would end up being, like the last housing crash, a con on the middle class. The Fed could step in to prop up prices unlike last decade. But then that would be a massive tax on renters. Hard to please all the people all the time. But a bubble in real estate is hardly sustainable. The millennials will be sensitive to that bubble and may not want to play that musical chair game.
If Trump thinks that saddling the middle class with more debt would be an economic victory he is a predator not unlike George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. They allowed easy money toxic loans. Is that what Trump calls recovery? He will be same ole as the other globalist tools.
Retail Sales Redistribution, Not Recovery
Great charts, must read. Considering people already knew Donald #Trump had won, this slowing of non gasoline retail growth certainly doesn't justify a lot of Wall Street exuberance.
S&P 500 Snapshot: The Trump Rally Appears To Be Stalled
Don't call it a #Trump rally. It is not and until he takes office no bounce is his doing. We shall see what happens the week after next and on. I feel the politicization of stock market reporting is tragically deceiving a lot of people. As we can see with these charts the movement is not that unusual and is a continuation of the recent rally before Trump.
Enjoy it before rates go up, inflation rears its head, and the Fed cuts its support. The result of this will mostly be non Trump related as well, however, he can make it worse by precipitating a global trade war.