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#FED

Some Thoughts On What Is Happening
Marc Chandler 12/30/2018 12:31:15 AM

I do not think #Powell broke fresh ground indicating that the balance sheet reduction was on autopilot. The #Fed has intimated it before. It indicated that the balance sheet is not long a policy signal and that its reduction was technical in nature and would continue unless, the Fed approached the zero- bound again.

I also disagree about transparency being oversold. Given the immense power of the Fed and its relative insulation, transparency it seems to me, is integral to its accountability What is it doing and why? I get strategic ambiguity and can accept temporal inconsistencies, but I for one am happy that the purposeful obfuscation of the #Greenspan era is over--that "Secrets of the Temple" is a period piece. The system evolves.

Did The Fed Just Make Another Mistake?
James Goldstein 12/20/2018 4:14:35 PM

The #Fed makes lots of mistakes!

How The Fed's Inflation Policies Crucify Workers In Pictures
Alexa Graham 2/21/2018 10:39:24 PM

Is that the job of the #Fed?

“Oil Is The Fed’s Canary”: Is The Fed “Sleepwalking Into A Policy Mistake”?
Gary Anderson 6/12/2017 7:21:40 PM

The #Fed will help the #banks. They don't care about #oil or #commodities. They probably want a decline in building commodities to offset possible interest rate difficulty for housing, and the lack of workers in the housing market that drive costs up.

What Wall Street And Capitol Hill Could Have In Store For 2017
Cynthia Decker 1/10/2017 9:19:24 PM

I agree, #Trump doesn't respect that fact and tends to be rather bull headed about getting his way. Could spell trouble for his working relationship with the #Fed.

What Wall Street And Capitol Hill Could Have In Store For 2017
Gary Anderson 1/9/2017 9:39:25 PM

Author asks a good question: Will #Trump and the #Fed play nice? I don't believe they will. While #InterestRates should be at the top of the ceiling, there is a ceiling which if breached will contract the deals and loans made, and ultimately contract the economy. I don't think Trump and his team really respect this fact.

BOE: Economic Forecasting in a World 'Tipped Upside Down'
Gary Anderson 1/8/2017 3:34:06 PM

At least the #BOE is more willing to accommodate than the #Fed. It will nip inflation going forward, IMO, because it has #TBTF banks too. At least growth is better than the #Eurozone, which is why having one's own currency is important.

Will The Fed initiate a (Mini) Crisis?
Gary Anderson 12/6/2016 10:23:14 PM

I would be surprised if the #Fed would let the #inflation genie out of the bottle.

The Emerging Markets Are About to Feel the Pain of a Soaring Dollar
Norman Mogil 11/26/2016 6:37:45 PM

I agree that there are lots of scary outcomes. Past crisis, like in 97-98 were easy to handle because the USD #debt load was manageable. Now, the #USD overhang is around $25 T( in 2016)--- about 6 times the size of the #Fed's balance sheet--- and the Fed cannot help should things really come apart. A strong #dollar policy is not in anyone's interest.

Did the Failure of Orthodox Economics Contribute to Trump’s Win?
Gary Anderson 11/26/2016 1:23:10 PM

I agree with almost everything about this article except that the #HousingBubble and crash was only in 4 states, primarily, and yet, the #Fed took down the entire #subprime and commercial paper market making it depression-like. Also, the new gold of structured finance, bonds, are being hoarded like no tomorrow. That hurt mainstreet by crushing yield.

Over $1 Trillion In Bond Losses In Days: Second Worst Week Ever
Moon Kil Woong 11/11/2016 5:02:06 PM

#Hillary and #Trump proposed massive deficit spending. Thus I have no idea what people were hoping for betting on for lower and lower bond rates post election. I guess they were betting Republicans held the House and Senate still (which they did) or that the #Fed would announce the end of raising rates and the US or even go back to #zirp. One can't realistically blame Trump alone for any of this.

Why Hilsenrath Just Hinted That A Rate Hike Is Coming
Moon Kil Woong 8/9/2016 2:26:51 PM

The #Fed will have a hard time backing out of a December rate hike. That said, Yellen's capable of not doing anything, lol.

#Hilsenrath is really not indicating anything new and the Federal Reserve continues to push that it may raise rates at any time as they have been doing for years now. #Obfuscation or more simply lying is the path of this Federal Reserve. Don't pay attention to the gibberish and expect a miniscule raise in December which may even be taken off the table. Yellen will do nothing significant until it's too late. Then pray since the Federal Reserve can't drop rates substantially to head off even the mildest downturn.

Decisive Week For The Q2 Earnings Season
Louis Jackson 7/23/2016 8:06:30 PM

It's almost hard to be bearish on anything when the bar has been set so low. I'm not even sure I can be bearish on $AAPL at this point, despite how horrendous their earnings could be relative to the previous quarters. With earnings and the #FED this week, I plan to do a lot of sitting on hands and doing nothing.

The Subprime U.S. Economy: Disintegrating Due To Subprime Auto, Housing, Bond & Energy Debt
Steve St. Angelo 7/23/2016 2:22:35 AM

Gary,

I appreciate the thoughtful reply. While bonds presently have a higher rating than gold, I don't believe this will be true several years down the road. Furthermore, there are a shortage of bonds, because of the massive #liquidity injections by #CentralBanks. Bonds can be in short supply when Central Banks print money to buy them.

Actually, the #Fed and Central Banks are running out of assets to buy. This is why several analysts believe the next Central Bank BULLET will be outright #HelicopterMoney.

Lastly, the production of energy is different than comparing outstanding #EnergyDerivatives to the Interest Rate Derivative Market. While it's true that the Interest Rate Derivative Market totally overwhelms anything else by several orders of magnitude, I would like to kindly remind you financial instruments are worthless without the burning of energy. Burning #energy translates to economic activity. Profitable economic activity translates to a functioning financial system.

When U.S. and global expensive oil production declines in earnest, this will cause a serious dislocation in the Financial System that will result in collapse. Unfortunately, this will be a depressionary collapse we never come out of.

Of course.. this is my humble opinion.

Steve

S&P 500 Snapshot: Another Day, A Fractional Loss After Four Record Highs
Moon Kil Woong 7/16/2016 3:12:16 AM

Great, now the view the #Fed won't raise rates for a few more months is firmly in place. Now what? They put on the thought they may raise rates again so they can play the won't raise rates again card. I think I'm having getting off #zirp deja vu all over again?

The Fundamental Reason The Silver Price Will Explode Much Higher Than Gold
Moon Kil Woong 7/14/2016 4:21:58 PM

Simply put, #silver is more volatile. Also silver is more a commodity than #gold which is more a store of value play. Commodities are heading higher even though it seems like the price increases can't be easily passed onto consumers, thus the weak corporate profits. If oil joins in on the #commodities price rise the #Fed may get what it wants, inflation exceeding US growth which will not stimulate the economy as the Fed chairwoman is implying. Quite the reverse.

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