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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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Key Recession Signal That’s Not The Yield Curve
Q1 2019 earnings results won’t be great, but the market is looking past that. The leading indicators suggest there won’t be a recession this year.
Fed Funds Rate To Stay Below The Neutral Rate
The Fed met expectations, but treasuries rallied sharply. The 10-2 year spread could invert in the next few weeks which would signal a recession will occur sometime in 2020 or even as late as 2021.
Why Counter-Cyclical Is Outperforming Cyclical Sector
The S&P 500 has been on an amazing run as it has increased 20.5% since the Christmas Eve bottom. It is up 1.74% in March and 13.01% year to date. This is the best first quarter since 1998.
Stocks And Treasuries Tell A Different Story
The most interesting action in markets is the relationship between stocks and treasuries because stocks are acting as though the economy is ready to rally higher, while Treasuries are showing bond investors expect growth to decrease.
What Real Rates Are Saying About Economy
Inflation expectations are low. If core PCE estimates are reached, the Fed fund futures will be correct about the Fed not raising rates in 2019 even though real rates are barley positive.
Are Rising Labor Costs A Problem For Economy?
Policy makers need to be careful not to destroy the incentive structure of capitalism when they try to increase labor’s share of the economy. Immigration will help America outperform other developed economies with aging populations.
February CPI & Implication For March FOMC Meeting
Inflation fell in February which helped real hourly wage growth hit a cycle high.
How Much Slack In The Labor Force?
The economy is at a unique point where there has been an increase in people looking for work while the percentage of people who got a job isn’t falling.
Leading Indicator For Jobless Claims & Minimum Wage Impact
There’s not much for American workers and firms to complain about as jobless claims are low, real wage growth has increased, and profits have increased which has boosted the amount of capital returned to shareholders.
Americans Living Paycheck To Paycheck
America’s demographics are solid. The consumer is in great shape relatively speaking because its leverage has declined.
Is The U.S. Economy Still In A Slowdown?
The housing market looks like it will rebound in the spring which would be great for GDP growth as there are many housing projects in the pipeline to be started.
Q4 GDP Report Implications For Stock Market
The bears have left the market in droves. The Q4 GDP report was solid because of the spike in business investment growth and the solid consumption growth. If the housing market rebounds in 2019, it will be a solid year.
EC The Distorted Reality Of The Housing Market
It’s very easy to get caught up in the housing bubble talk because many indicators in November and December showed weakness and the last cycle ended with a housing bubble burst.
Housing Market Impact On Fed Balance Sheet
The housing market was terrible in November and December. However, there are some green shoots. A strong labor market with high real wage growth and lower mortgage interest rates should increase demand for housing this spring.
Margins May Be Close To Plummeting
The stock market is at a very interesting juncture because its rally has been impenetrable despite the global economic slowdown.
Leading Indicators Signal Slowdown Will Continue
The most important aspect of the economy is inflation because low inflation allowed the Fed to turn dovish which helped reverse last year’s bear market.
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