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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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On Pace For 20% Unemployment Rate (Doubling In April Alone)
Hourly workers are in grave danger. We think if the shutdowns last into June, there will be an extension of jobless claims benefits.
Fastest Pace Of Downgrades Ever (Since 2002)
There has been a huge slew of bond downgrades especially in the energy sector which has been hit by the price war and demand destruction.
33% Don’t Have $100 Saved
People aren’t prepared to deal with losing their jobs. That’s why the government passed a bill to give people $1,200 in relief. Many large businesses were also not prepared.
Unlike 2001 Or 2008
The Fed went all in for real this time by buying muni and commercial bonds. This should help the plumbing of markets and increase investors’ risk appetite in the medium term.
Will The Economy Recover Quickly?
Small businesses are facing an apocalypse. You might be surprised to find out that being shut down for just a few weeks is enough to put thousands of small firms out of business. If 21% of small firms go bust and they represent 45% of the economy.
Record Jobless Claims Coming Next Thursday
Stocks were relatively stable on Thursday and Friday, but make no mistake about it, the labor market is like the Titanic headed for an iceberg. Technically, it has already hit the iceberg, but it’s not reflected in the data yet.
Biggest Recession Since The Great Depression?
The hotels, restaurants, airlines, and small businesses (outside of grocery stores) are getting hammered. JP Morgan expects the deepest recession since the Great Depression. The good news is anything less, is a positive.
Labor Market Recession To Start This Spring
The labor market is about to be hit very hard as leisure and hospitality firms will hemorrhage jobs. The U.S. fiscal stimulus won’t do enough to help families and small businesses.
The Data Is Bad: Expectations Are Even Worse
The economic data is just starting to come in. It’s terrible. The good news is stocks have mostly priced in a recession and forecasts are starting to get extremely bleak.
Market Participants Still Too Optimistic
The preliminary March consumer sentiment report was better than expected, but even it quantified the negative expectations for the economy in the next year. Global capex will collapse and this will be an earnings recession.
Unprecedented Decline: How Bad Will It Get?
The U.S. economy is very likely to go into a recession in 2020. You don’t need to be an economist to know that a wholesale economic shutdown isn’t good for growth.
Is This Like 2008?
This bear market has reached extreme pessimism according to most metrics. We are still at the beginning phases of the outbreak in America. The hope is these latest actions to curtail the spread work.
What Stocks Are Pricing In
There is a lot of uncertainty about how bad the virus will get and what people and governments’ responses will be. That doesn’t even get into the point that stocks were expensive before the correction.
What To Monitor To Understand Impact Of Virus On US Economy
The Fed can’t save the economy. It needs a fiscal response. The only good news is stocks are getting cheaper.
Stocks Aren’t Cheap & The Economic Data Is Worsening
Stock market shocks are becoming more common. The 6-day correction off the peak might be the new normal. Fewer people are going to the movies because of the coronavirus.
Financial Conditions Getting More Stressed
The Fed has a few options to deal with the impact of the coronavirus once it reaches zero percent interest rates. The Fed likely won’t cut rates to negative, isn’t allowed to buy stocks and isn’t likely to buy corporate bonds.
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