Tony is an all-round investment professional with a broad range of credentials, skills, contacts and work experience in Canada, England, the United States and Australia. His career spanning five decades has been in the investment and mining industries as a corporate director, president, executive ...
more Tony is an all-round investment professional with a broad range of credentials, skills, contacts and work experience in Canada, England, the United States and Australia. His career spanning five decades has been in the investment and mining industries as a corporate director, president, executive director, research manager, and money manager as well as being a top-ranked Canadian metals and mining analyst in the 1970s and 1980s. Hailing from Aberdeen, Scotland he now lives in Niagara-on-the Lake in the deep south of Canada where he blogs and publishes on equity markets.
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Latest Comments
US$ 3,000 Gold Likely By Year-End
Dear Danny,
The following is the Fed's definition
M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) and automatic transfer service (ATS) accounts at depository institutions, credit union share draft accounts, and demand deposits at thrift institutions. Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.
Kind regards
Tony
Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry
Dear Mr Moon
Nice to hear from you again. It seems that you are still as cautious as you were in April 2016 when you wrote:
"... stocks will be rocked by a downturn caused by the Fed's low rate policy that has created an even greater asset boom than Greenspan. Sadly, this spike has made it that much more impossible for the Fed to correct the downturn when it hits. Rather than learning its lesson it seems to be actively trying to recreate the last downturn and Yellen seems to be fashioning another great depression rather than trying to take measures to prevent one".
On April 15, 2016, the DJIA price stood at 17,926 while its dividend discount value was 40.607. Both the value and the price have risen since then to 66.192 and 28,130 respectively.
Is there anything that I can say that will help you out of your gloom?
Kind regards
Tony
Predicted Acceleration In DJIA Rise To Continue
Dear Danny,
The DJIA dividend is published every week in Barron's market Lab.
www.barrons.com/.../9_0210-indexespeyields.html
The Economy: Mostly Good
Dear David,
The two vectors that impact the value of the DJIA are dividends and 30 year T Bond Yiel
Re-balancing is slowing the rise of DJIA Price but Santa should help
Please see :-
www.talkmarkets.com/.../at-24329-price-of-djia-at-44--discount-to-value-of-43533
Regards
Tony
At 24,329 Price Of DJIA At 44 % Discount To Value Of 43,533
Dear Readers,
This was published at 2.38 pm this afternoon. It is now 6.05 pm and no one has commented one way or another on the contents. I am looking for positive and negative criticism. Surely some one out there has questions.
Since May 5 2014 I have published 29 articles and had only 4 comments, which is most disheartening. TalkMarkets should be a sounding board for the exchange of ideas but this seems to me to be just a one way street of good research which I have made available free to all. It would be nice to here from you in return.
Should you think that my efforts are just BS then let me know but I would like to hear supporting arguments if that is your opinion.
Kind regards
DJIA Driven By Fundamentals, Not White House Twitter
You should start with a book by the master of value investing Ben Graham and see how you go,
www.chapters.indigo.ca/.../9780060555665-item.html
I am sure that it is available elsewhere, The paper back edition is available for $20,
Kind regards
Tony
S&P 500 Facing A Correction
Dear Gregor,
Nonsense, and here is why:
www.talkmarkets.com/.../while-declared-dead-djii-just-wont-stay-down
JNJ is at least a double.
Kind regards
Tony Hayes
Are Stocks Ready To Rocket Higher?
Dear Chris
Yes bonds have been outperforming equities because world bond rates have been sinking to negative levels. Absolute madness and the start of the modern day Tulip Mania and the South Sea Bubble.
Real assets have been rising because some folk are recognising that the new paradigm of taking money from the lender to pay the borrower is nonsense. Gold is telling you this as are equities. There is just too much money sloshing around the world and not enough places to put invest it.
I suggest you read the following along with the comments and my answers.
www.talkmarkets.com/.../while-declared-dead-djii-just-wont-stay-down
I see that Peter Schiff is horning in on your website. Too bad for him that the world does not work as he would like it too with the Austrian School of wannabe economics that have made him a legend in his own mind.
Kind regards
Tony Hayes
Things Are Different Post Lehman, Even If They Shouldn't Be
Dear Gary,
If the banks will do nothing but sit on their $ 2.5 trillion of excess reserves then long rates will fall further pushing up the dividend discount value of the DJII. At some point the banks will have to move either into the real economy or into the equity market.
For more thoughts on this please visit:
http://tonyhayesblog.com/
Kind regards
Tony
A Tale Of Two Crashes
Dear Jeff,
I think that you should look at the amount of the monetary base that is actually at work in the US economy and not the total monetary base. US$2,3 trillion is stashed as excess reserves at the Fed. Thus while hyperinflation may be coming it is unlikely to be soon.
perhaps you would like to read the following and give me a ring.
www.talkmarkets.com/.../negative-interest-rates-are-insane