Terence Grennon Blog | Fundamentals Point To Overvaluation/ Very Low Future Returns | TalkMarkets
Strategist
Location: New York, NY, United States
Contributor's Links: Wave-Trend Strategy
30+ yrs in finance with a concentration in asset allocation

Fundamentals Point To Overvaluation/ Very Low Future Returns

Date: Thursday, March 9, 2023 4:01 PM EDT

Regarding value, it's alluring to think that the market collapse in 2022 will have erased the overvaluation brought on by a decade of yield-seeking speculation, ushering in a fresh and long-lasting bull market. If our internal metrics were to improve, we wouldn't completely rule out a time of speculation, but from the perspective of value, the chart below depicts the current situation. Nothing but the most extreme froth was removed from valuations by the 2022 fall, leaving the price/sales ratio of the S&P 500 above the peak it attained during the 2000 bubble and at the same level as the market peaks in 2018 and 2020.
 

To expect an extended market advance from here is essentially to view the area in the red box as the “new normal,” and to dispense with all of market history before late-2020.

The chart below shows the relationship between the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio and actual subsequent S&P 500 10-year returns, in fairly recent data, from 1990 to the present.

 

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