Terry Grennon Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Asset Allocation Strategist / Fiduciary Consultant
Location: NYC, New York, NY, United States
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Dynamic asset allocation insights are for educational purposes only and not a solicit to buy or sell securities. Mr. Grennon is not a registered investment adviser.

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Bubbles Pop, They Don't Just Deflate
When stock valuations are this high, you can expect not just lower average returns going forward, there is also the potential for a pop in the bubble.
The Fed Is Absolutely Right
Money velocity and wage inflation is the key to understanding inflation.
Bearishness Hits Advisors
Mood and sentiment with investment advisors turn; the 'smart money' is in a bearish mood.
The Price Wave Plus The Price Wave-Trend Of Bonds Remain Bearish
Both the Price Wave plus the Price Wave-Trend of bonds remain bearish.
Stocks Have Been In A Downward Oscillating Trend Since June Of 2020
Measured by the Wave-Trend in stocks, the pattern has clearly topped for US stocks.
Long-Term TIPs Market Pointing To Deflation (Not Inflation)
The TIPs Wave Trend is still very negative which means that the bond market looks at long-term inflation and is more concerned about deflation than inflation.
Has The Market Topping Process Ended?
With the new question of a second virus wave and the recent Fed Chairman Powell's comments on an economic path that sounds more like a greater potential for an L shaped recovery, this could also be a catalyst for a mood shift.
Stocks Are At An Optimal Pivot Point
Stocks have reached a pivot point technically. Without fundamental support, there is a high potential for a change in the Primary trend from bullish to bearish.
The Worst For Stocks Is Not Over, It's About To Start
The Primary wave 2 (bear rally) in stocks ended on April 29. Since then, the weekly trend in price and volume has been bearish. Even with last Friday's "the worst is over" move in stocks.
The Bear Rally Is Over
Both large and small caps appear to have completed their rallies based on retracement ratios, frequency, and volume. The next wave down will be ushered in by the May 12 BLS inflation report.
US Q1 GDP Is Projected To Be 3x Worse Than During The Great Recession
Weekly business activity now being reported by the NY Fed, paints an extreme decline in GDP when it's reported.
Beware Of The Sucker Rally
Also known as the "bull trap," bear market rallies are mentally agonizing because they numerous investors into assuming the bear has finished. As evident by the following chart that is the reason they are alluded to as "a sucker's rally."
The Reduction In Buybacks That Is Coming Is Going To Be A Knock-Out Punch
Reduced buyback spending means less downside support for equity prices since fewer firms will step in to repurchase shares if their stock prices fall.
Forecasting The Market Requires Knowing The Magnitude Of The Anxiety We'll Experience
Nobel laureate and Yale Professor Robert J. Shiller sees the ability to predict the future price behavior of the market requires knowing both the economic impact of the virus but also the impact of investors' ability to control their anxiety.
When Will This Bear End?
From today, can you sensibly expect better than expected bull returns as we found during the 1980s and ’90s … or do we face one more decade or longer of below-average bear returns?
Unfortunately The Twin Shocks In China Will Mean A U Or L Shaped Recovery
Twin shocks, first being a supply shock, beginning from shutdowns in China, now the demand shock originating from the Western world, is unfolding right in front of us.
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