A lot of things are not “confirming” the stock market’s rally right now.

1998 saw a rapid stock market crash, a retest (something we have yet to see today), followed by a massive nonstop rally. Everyone at the time thought that the 1998 crash was the start of a much bigger crash.

As the S&P 500 stalls at its 200 day moving average, recession probabilities are rising according to the New York Fed. Let’s look at what this means for the stock market.

As the stock market rallies higher and is on the verge of breaking out above its 200 day moving average, the outlook for Q1 2019 corporate earnings growth is falling.

This has been a terrific January for stocks. Risk-on assets like stocks and oil have risen, while safe-haven assets like the U.S. Dollar have fallen.

The S&P is still hovering around its 50% Fibonacci retracement, which is a very important resistance. Meanwhile, the macro data is mixed.