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Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ... more

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CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned - Saturday, March 28
The Fed – and other major central banks – want markets to stabilize, animal spirits to kick in and wealth effect to begin to reverberate through the global economy.
Sentiment Witnesses Rapid U-Turn From Greed To Fear, Raising Odds Of Bear Market Rally
Investors Intelligence bulls fell further this week, with bears jumping to an eight-plus-year high.
NYSE, Nasdaq Short Interest Rises To Multi-Year Highs – Bulls Put Foot Down At/Near Crucial Support
NYSE and Nasdaq short interest jumped mid-March, to multi-year highs. Bears could not have ridden the latest crash in stocks any better.
Bulls Cannot Afford Breach Of 2100+ On S&P 500 And 950-960 On Russell 2000
The issue at hand is accelerating downward momentum in stocks, no matter how oversold they are. Fear rules. Mid-February, greed did. In this regard, what transpires north of 2100 on the S&P 500 and in the 950-960 area on the Russell 2000 is key.
An Opportunity For Volatility Bears
This week, the volatility index struggled in the low-80s. Of note, after persistently remaining above 70, the daily RSI dropped below that threshold early this week. Friday, VIX lost six points even as stocks once again were slammed.
Longest Bull Market In U.S. Stocks Bid Adieu But Not Before Flashing Warning Signs
The longest bull market in U.S. stock market history abruptly came to an end last month. Between March 9, 2009 and February 19, 2020 – that is, 131 months – the S&P 500 large cap index rallied 401 percent.
Longest Bull In US Stocks Ended Last Month – Panicky Fed Cannot Afford End Of ‘Fed Put’
No one rang the bell when the longest bull in US stock market history came to an end last month. The drop was swift and decisive.
Peek Into Future Through Futures, What To Expect Next Week
The 21-day moving average of the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio ended the week at 0.769, which reflects the prevailing fear in the markets (more on this here). As this gets unwound, equities should get a tailwind.
With Stocks Amidst New Round Of Selling Pressure, FOMC Meeting Next Week Could Decide If This Stops
Bears are making a killing. Stocks have come under renewed selling pressure. The S&P 500 is very close to losing 20 percent on a closing basis.
Peeking Into The Future Through Current Hedge Fund Positions
On a day the bond market found out the US economy produced much-better-than-expected 273,000 non-farm jobs in February, the 10-year Treasury yield (0.71 percent) tumbled 22 basis points on Friday. In two weeks, rates have been more than cut in half.
Last Week’s Heavy Selling Drives Several Metrics Into Severely Oversold Territory, Not Investors Intelligence Bulls
Last Friday, amidst heavy selling, bulls put foot down near October 2019 lows. By then, several indicators got pushed into grossly oversold territory. Not Investors Intelligence bulls, whose count this week was 41.7 percent.
Fed Caves In To Market Demands Tue, But Fails To Induce Favorable Reaction From Assets, Including Stocks
Intra-meeting Tuesday, the Fed delivered a 50-basis-point reduction in the fed funds rate. Stocks yawned, gold rallied and the 10-year T-yield fell to a new low.
Amidst Last Week’s Bloodbath, Bulls Defend Crucial Support On Major US Equity Indices Friday
Last week, all major US equity indices lost north of 10 percent and were down a lot more at session lows Friday. Amidst the carnage, bulls stepped up to defend important support. Some metrics are near washout levels.
How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
In this environment, the thing to watch is not what new tools the Fed – or other major central banks – come up with, rather how equities react, or whether or not the initial positive reaction to central bank action will be lasting.
VIX In Midst Of Cash And Futures Dynamics
With one session to go this week, VIX shot up in the cash market. In futures, non-commercials are still heavily net short the volatility index.
Margin Debt Diverges From S&P 500, But Not Russell 2000 – Latter Big Laggard
Margin debt has diverged from US stocks – or not. It depends if margin debt is pitted against large- or small-caps.
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