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Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ... more

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Bulls Tried To Put Foot Down Monday, Major Equity Indices Remain Under 50-Day
Bulls tried to put foot down on Monday. If they succeed in building on this further, the next tug of war on major indices lies around their respective 50-day, reclaiming of which can even induce short squeeze, particularly in tech.
A Lot Has To Go Right For Tech Bulls Who Are Hoping For Short Squeeze Of Non-Commercials
Short squeeze of non-commercials in the futures market was a big factor behind the rally in the S&P 500 since mid-June. These traders have now targeted the Nasdaq 100. This has raised tech bulls’ hopes for a squeeze.
Peek Into The Future Via Commitment Of Traders This Week
Markets are essentially treating the Fed's plans as a pipe dream, suggesting more QE is needed to achieve something. Real rates are already negative.
Foreigners, Who Have Been Aggressively Buying US Equities, Pose Risk When They Turn
The S&P 500 large cap index eclipsed its February high of 3393.52 in the middle of August, before rallying all the way to 3588.11 on the 2nd this month. From March’s low to the high early this month, it jumped nearly 64 percent.
S&P 500 Buybacks Collapse In 2Q, Hitherto Tailwind Turns Into Headwind For Stocks
S&P 500 buybacks declined substantially in the second quarter. The trend is likely to persist. Historically, the S&P 500 and buybacks move in tandem. The two have diverged big time in the current quarter.
After Massive Rally Post-March Lows, Major Equity Indices Falling Under Their Own Weight
The recent selloff in equities has come at a time of elevated Fed balance sheet, stabilizing earnings estimates and improving macro data. Either stocks believe these positives are not lasting or they are falling under their own weight.
CoT: Positions Of Non-Commercials, The Future Via Futures
In the 12 months to June, net foreign purchases of US equities totaled $165.2 billion – the highest since April 2010. This represents quite a U-turn in their sentiment. In April last year, they were selling $214.6 billion worth – a record.
Post-Sharp 3-Day Selloff, Equity Indices Rally Wednesday – VIX One To Watch For Signal
Sentiment indicators are beginning to come in from elevated levels.
Bears Put Foot Down Near Crucial Resistance
Bears are putting their feet down. On both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, bulls last week were unable to break through multi-year resistance, even as the Nasdaq 100 finished right on rising-channel support from March.
Commitment Of Traders: What Hedge Funds Are Buying
VIX rallied big this week. Longer-term, on the monthly, several indicators including the RSI are hooking up from the median. The path of least resistance increasingly is looking up.
With 8 Months In, US Corporate Bond Issuance This Year Already Sets New Record!
There are four more months before 2020 is out, but US corporate bond issuance already set a new record.
Spread Between ISM Manufacturing Orders And Inventories Beginning To Signal End Of Recession
US manufacturing is coming back with a vengeance. Orders are soaring and inventories remain low, raising the odds that the recovery in manufacturing has life left in it.
S&P 500 Approaches Potentially Important Technical Level
The same way investor fear was pervasive in March, greed is reflected in several metrics now. Reversal risks are very high medium- to long-term. Near-term, how VIX behaves in the next several sessions will decide if sentiment gets ever frothier.
CoT: Futures Positions Of Non-Commercials
As and when unwinding begins, demand rises for nearer-term protection, which is VIX in this case.
Investors Intelligence Bulls Reach 99-Week High 60% — Bulls-To-Bears Ratio Still Sub-4
In the event of downward pressure in the sessions/weeks ahead, what happens around 3390s will be telling.
Nasdaq Up 73% Since March Low, Short Squeeze Helps – Bruised Tech Shorts Unfazed
It is easy to see why bears get tempted to short. Fundamentally, things are ugly. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has essentially backstopped stock prices. Shorts have gotten squeezed over and over. Bruised tech shorts are still not giving up.
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