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Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ... more

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CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned - Monday, Aug. 15
For the first time in nearly four months, VIX broke 20, closing last week at 19.53. The volatility index has now declined for eight weeks in a row.
Russell 2000’s Mini-Breakout Needs Confirmation From S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100
A section of markets is behaving as if July’s job gains are sustainable, and the US economy is not on the verge of falling apart. The Russell 2000 has scored some technical wins, but the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are bound by crucial resistance.
CoT: Looking At The Future Thru The Recent Past
Bulls did manage some important technical wins. Last week, they rallied the Russell 2000 through a declining trend line from last November when the index peaked at 2459. This week, 1900 was won, closing the week at 1922.
Looking Into The Future Through Futures, What Hedge Funds Buy
Once again, it is likely to be a case of markets leading the Fed – this time, it will be to the downside.
Big Week For Tech Earnings; Ahead Of This, Nasdaq 100 Acts Strong, With Weakness Brewing Friday
The Nasdaq 100 filled the gap but kept rallying, only to see some selling on Friday. Tech’s relatively better performance, slightly, comes ahead of June-quarter results this week from the leading tech outfits.
CoT Report - Peeking At Futures, Big Buys
Next week, tech heavy hitters will report their June quarter. For market cap-weighted indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, these results will matter a lot.
Encouraging Signs For Beat-Up Equity Bulls In Latter Sessions Last Week
US stocks in general sold off last week, but the lows of Wednesday and Thursday were bought, with Friday’s rally the icing on the cake. This took place amidst June’s red-hot CPI report and disappointing earnings from JPM.
CoT Report - Futures, Hedge Fund Positions
Non-commercials, who are now sitting on the highest net shorts since June 2020, can become a catalyst for a rally as they cover. Perhaps tellingly, VIX was unable to rally this week even though the S&P 500 ended in the red.
Aggressive Rate-Hike Expectations Subject To Change Should Inflation Show Signs Of Stability
The Fed is using both conventional and unconventional tools to deal with surging inflation. This is bound to impact economic activity, which is already showing signs of deceleration. Inflation could be the next shoe to drop.
Peek Into The Future Thru Futures, Hedge Fund Positions - Latest CoT Report
It is probable that flows begin to improve in the sessions/weeks ahead. Dips in the S&P 500 were consistently bought later last week and early this week.
Corporate Bond Issuance Continues To Soften, Can Potentially Impact Buybacks In Coming Quarters
Corporate bond issuance is on pace to decline 14.3 percent this year. This comes at a time when corporations have been aggressively buying back shares.
Managements Have Opportunity To Use 2Q Earnings Season As Kitchen-Sink Quarter
Next week, the 2Q earnings season begins in earnest. Equities took a big hit in the first half. The sell-side is yet to bring out scissors as relates to 2022/2023 earnings estimates.
Futures Positions Of Noncommercials, Large Specs' Net Short - CoT Report
In perhaps a telling sign for the sessions to come, both VIX and the S&P 500 were down this week. In all probability, VIX wants to go lower.
Equity Bulls Put Foot Down At Or Near Support
After a slight breach of support in the week before, both small- and large-cap bulls put their foot down last week. This came after weeks of selling pressure. There is more room to run. Non-commercials are aggressively short and can unwillingly help.
Looking At The Future Thru Futures, Hedge Fund Positions
Non-commercials are now the most net short in two years. In the right circumstances, this could end up helping the longs through short squeeze.
In Q1, S&P 500 Companies Spent Record Amounts In Buybacks When Prices Were Falling
A new high was established in S&P 500 buybacks in Q1. Unlike most of the time in the past, shares were bought at lower prices as the S&P 500 sold off during the quarter.
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