Paban Pandey Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
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Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ... more

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U.S. Money-Market Funds Drop In Recent Weeks – Bulls Hope This Is Beginning Of Trend
Major U.S. equity indices have rallied massively – particularly since the lows of December 2018.
Peek Into The Future, How Are Hedge Funds Are Positioned?
The Fed for all intents and purposes has been preparing the markets for more liquidity to come.
Loss Of Support On RVX Can Help Small-Cap Bulls, But A Falling Ratio Of Russell 2000 To S&P 500 Looms Large
RVX is clinging on to support.A breakdown may help small-cap bulls near term, as the Russell 2000 itself is at/near resistance. That said, a ratio between the index and the S&P 500 just made a multi-year low.
Divergence Between Job Openings And Creation – Early To Call It A Trend, But Deserves Close Attention
There is a divergence in progress in the U.S. job market. Historically, non-farm job creation and openings move in tandem.
U.S. Fascination With Debt Knows No Bounds
Debt addiction is pervasive among consumers, corporations as well as the federal government. Several debt-related metrics are in uncharted territories. The craving is built into the system and can continue until markets rebel.
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures For The Week Ahead, February 9
One more week of additional liquidity from the Fed!In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went up $18.8 billion to $3.79 trillion.Since the last week of September last year, they have gone up by $239.1 billion.
Relationship Between Housing Inventory (Tight), Home Price (Up), And Consumer Sentiment (Up)
US home prices continue to rise. Consumer sentiment is more or less sideways at an elevated level.
Bears Waste Another Opportunity – One More Possibly Around The Corner
Bulls put foot down. Bears had an opening but were unable to make much out of it. Another opportunity to take on the snorting bulls may be just around the corner.
S&P 500 Forebodingly Starts With A Down January — January Barometer’s Record Mixed
Up 3.3 percent at one time, the S&P 500 ended January down 0.2 percent. ‘As January goes, so goes the year’ adage is not fail-safe but worth paying attention to. Not the least because the index rallied nearly 29 percent last year...
CoT: See How Hedge Funds Are Positioned Through Futures
Reading the Fed’s tea leaves, the balance sheet is headed a lot higher in quarters/years to come. This is bound to reverberate through a whole host of assets, not the least of which is the bond market.
Big Drop In S&P 500 Companies’ Income Tax Rate Last 2 Years, But Questions About Earnings Quality Remains
In the wake of the tax cuts of December 2017, S&P 500 companies are paying less than 20 percent in income taxes. All good except the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP income remains.
Nasdaq Short Interest Rises To 4-Plus-Year High; Shorts Unwillingly May Be Helping Longs
Mid-January, Nasdaq's short interest rose to a four-plus-year high.
Rates Diverge With Equities – TLT Pushes Through Aug ’19 Falling Trendline
The year is quite young, but things have not quite turned out the way bond bears were hoping they would.
Peek Into The Future Through Futures
Fed funds futures are leaning toward one more 25-basis-point cu. Should it come to pass, the policy rate obviously will have dropped further – closer to one percent. For this to occur, the US economy likely needs to decelerate quite a bit.
US Housing Data Improve; ITB Breaks Out, Possible Breakout Retest N/T Will Be Telling
Over the past year, housing data – both survey- and activity-based – have gotten better.
Investors Intelligence Bulls Hit 68-Week High, Even As R2K Clings On To Crucial Support
Investors Intelligence bulls this week posted the highest since early October 2018 when US stocks were peaking.
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