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Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ... more

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Dynamics Between Buybacks, Margin Debt, Foreigners’ Purchases Of US Stocks And Extended Multiples
Buybacks made a comeback in 1Q21. Nonetheless, they are no longer as strong a tailwind for equities as they were in 2018 and 2019. Margin debt and foreigners continue to support stocks, and will pose problems once they turn.
Breakouts Imminent On Major US Equity Indices, Staying Power A Question Mark
Major US equity indices are itching to break out. The question is, what then? Indices remain stretched on several timeframes. Longs have shown dogged determination but shorts are likely to decide if the momentum will have the staying power.
CoT This Week - What Funds Are Buying, Future Hints
The overall action is listless, with bulls beginning to wish for softer economic data, even as they doggedly maintain a buy-the-dip mentality.
Household Income Boosted By Stimulus Checks, Job Openings Hitting New Highs
Job openings are at record highs. If past is prelude, this leads to job creation. This time around, thanks to stimulus money, Americans do not seem desperate for jobs, unless wages rise enough to tempt them back into the labor force.
Hooked On Monetary Morphine, Large-Caps Are Beginning To Wish For Softer Data
The Fed is committed to its current pace of asset accumulation. But at some point, tapering will happen. The question is, will markets suffer from withdrawal symptoms?
CoT This Week: First June Look At What Hedge Funds Are Buying
They are trying to prepare the markets for a day when the Fed starts unwinding its already-massive balance sheet. Meanwhile the status quo remains, which is volatility bulls’ inability to hold the rallies.
After 4 Up Weeks, Gold At Crucial Juncture – Pause Likely Before $1,920s Get Taken Out
Gold has rallied for four straight weeks – up more than 14 percent from early March. Last week, the metal just about tested crucial resistance at $1,920s.
This Week's Peek At What Noncommercials Are Buying, CoT
The question is, when would the markets begin to seriously worry about tapering?
VIX Unable To Hold Rallies, But At Lower Bound Of Dual Trend-Line Support
Volatility bulls have not been able to sustain rallies. Amidst this, non-commercials have been quietly reducing net shorts in VIX futures. If the past is any guide, VIX does not peak until these traders go net long or get close.
Commitment Of Traders: Weekly Peek At Futures, Hedge Fund Buying
Non-commercials have been quietly reducing their net shorts, which are currently at a 48-week low. The short-covering has not yet resulted in meaningful upward pressure on VIX.
Mar ’20 Trend Line Breached Intra-Week Last Week But Saved By Close, Matter Of Time Before S&P 500 Joins Nasdaq 100
Last week, equity bulls stepped up in time to save a rising 14-month trend line on the S&P 500.
This Week's CoT: Futures And What Hedge Funds Are Buying
Right here and now, Jerome Powell and the team need not worry. Buy-the-dip mentality is intact.
Yellen Dip Bought, Bulls Buoyed By Fed’s Focus On Labor Market
Equity bulls used the Yellen dip last Tuesday as an opportunity to add to risk. The Fed is making sure liquidity remains plentiful, and the short end of the yield curve is cooperative. On Friday the VIX breached short-term trend line support.
CoT This Week: Futures And What Hedge Funds Are Buying
The prevailing perception is that a rising rate environment is not good for tech stocks...Bulls may have something to work with here.
With Fed Assets And US Stocks In Lockstep, Yellen Suggests Fed Behind The Curve
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pretty much implied on Tuesday that the Fed is behind the curve, although she tried to walk back her comments later.
Stocks Unable To Respond To Earnings Results From Top-6,Continued Stimulus And A Red Hot US Economy
Last week’s excellent earnings results from five of the top six US companies were unable to lift equities, which had rallied big into the reporting season. With major equity indices extended on several timeframes, weakness could be brewing.
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