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Paban Pandey

Analyst
Contributor's Links: Hedgopia

Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ... more

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Manufacturing Orders Snap Back With V Shape – Strength Not Uniform Across The Board
Thursday, August 6, 2020 3:01 AM EDT
Orders activity in manufacturing have snapped back with a V shape. But this recovery is not uniformly seen across the economy. Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft dropped y/y in March through June.
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Likely February 24th Gap-Fill Only 0.7% Away
Wednesday, August 5, 2020 7:16 AM EDT
Volume is anemic, but ultimately price is the final arbiter. A 0.7-percent rally from Tuesday’s close will have filled a February 24th gap, which is likely to happen in the sessions ahead.
In this article: VIX
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Shine Is Back On Gold – Breakout Retest Will Further Strengthen Gold Bugs’ Hands
Monday, August 3, 2020 2:38 AM EDT
Gold just broke out of a massive base, suggesting much higher prices in the future. At the same time, its current pace of gains has a parabolic touch to it.
In this article: GLD Also: TLT, UDN, UUP
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CoT This Week: Looking Into The Near Future
Sunday, August 2, 2020 7:30 PM EDT
The 21-day moving average of the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio ended the week at 0.468, with Wednesday’s 0.463 the lowest ever going back to October 2003. Greed is rampant.
In this article: IAU, QQQ, GLD, IJR, IVV, IWM, SPY, VOO, VIX Also: FXE, IEF, OIL, TLT
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FINRA Margin Debt Up $105.4bn From March Low – Absolute Low Probably Not In Yet
Wednesday, July 29, 2020 5:26 AM EDT
Between March and June, FINRA margin debt increased $105.4 billion, providing a nice tailwind for stocks.
In this article: IWM, NDX, SPX
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4 Of Top 5 US Stocks Set To Report This Week, July Is Shaping Up As Potentially Bearish Shooting Star On Nasdaq 100
Monday, July 27, 2020 2:46 AM EDT
Tech stocks rallied massively in the past four months, with the leaders outpacing the soldiers by a wide margin. Last week, post-earnings reaction to several tech stocks including MSFT indicated a ‘sell the news’ phenomenon.
In this article: IBM, ISM, QQQ, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, TSLA, FB, SOX, GOOGL
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Commitment Of Traders: A Look Into The Near Future
Sunday, July 26, 2020 9:00 PM EDT
CoT: Peek into the future through futures, how hedge funds are positioned.
In this article: IBM, IAU, MSFT, TSLA, GLD, IVV, SPY, VOO, INTC Also: FXE, QQQ, IWM, VIX, IEF, OIL, TLT, UDN, UUP
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Equity Options Lean Heavily Bullish – Matter Of When, Not If, Current Greed Gives Way To Fear
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 5:57 AM EDT
US equity indices have had massive gains in the past four months. In the options market, calls heavily outweigh puts – to a point where it is beginning to look dangerously lop-sided. During such times it pays to take out the caution hat.
In this article: QQQ, IWM, SPY
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Subtle Warning Signs From Tech – After Massive Gains Since March Low, Profit Protection Likely To Drive Decisions
Monday, July 20, 2020 2:16 AM EDT
Last week, the Russell 2000 jumped 3.6 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.8 percent. If investors are indeed moving away from tech toward small-caps, this is not good news for markets as a whole.
In this article: QQQ, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, SPY, FB, IWM, GOOGL
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Looking Into The Future Via CoT This Week
Sunday, July 19, 2020 7:53 PM EDT
The index has essentially gone sideways for six weeks. Some signs of distribution appeared this week, but bulls are yet to let go of the prevailing momentum.
In this article: IAU, QQQ, GLD, IVV, IWM, SPY, VOO Also: FXE, IEF, OIL, TLT, USO, VIX
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After Several Tries, Russell 2000 Breaks Out Of 1450s, But Bears Not Backing Down Just Yet
Friday, July 17, 2020 5:29 AM EDT
The Russell 2000 Wednesday broke out of 1450s, although bulls were forced to retest the breakout in the very next session.
In this article: IWM
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Well-Behaved Inflation – And Outlook – Key To Fed’s Ultra Accommodative Monetary Policy
Wednesday, July 15, 2020 7:21 AM EDT
June’s CPI was reported yesterday. Inflation behaves well. This makes the Fed’s job easier to continue to pour liquidity into the system. All hell breaks loose once inflation refuses to cooperate – whenever that is.
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Nasdaq Bulls Eye Squeeze Opportunity, Bears Fancy Repeat Of How Index Collapsed Late ’08
Monday, July 13, 2020 2:29 AM EDT
In the latest period, Nasdaq/QQQ shorts went on an offensive. The index/ETF rallied to a fresh high last Friday. Longs are salivating over the jump in short interest as yet another squeeze opportunity.
In this article: QQQ Also: BAC, C, JPM, MS, WFC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, GLD, SPY, COMP, FB, SPX
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CoT: Looking At The Future Thru Futures, July 12
Sunday, July 12, 2020 9:01 PM EDT
Non-commercials continue to cover their shorts, which three weeks ago had surged to the highest since October 2011, and that has helped the bulls. Otherwise, fund flows have not been in cooperation.
In this article: IAU, QQQ, GLD, IVV, SPY, TLT, VOO, VIX Also: IEF
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1H20 Corporate Debt Issuance Already Matches Last Year’s Issuance
Friday, July 10, 2020 4:51 AM EDT
Already-levered US corporations are levering up even more. The first half this year already matched issuance of last year.
In this article: HYG
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CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned, Tuesday, July 7
Tuesday, July 7, 2020 2:51 AM EDT
Gold has come a long way, having dropped to $1,450.90 intraday on March 16th. In the event it proceeds to unwind its daily overbought condition, $1,750s, or between $1,700 and $1,750s, should generate buying interest.
In this article: QQQ, GLD, TLT, COMP, VIX, FXE, IWM, BNO, OIL
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