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Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ... more

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Rates Diverge With Equities – TLT Pushes Through Aug ’19 Falling Trendline
The year is quite young, but things have not quite turned out the way bond bears were hoping they would.
Peek Into The Future Through Futures
Fed funds futures are leaning toward one more 25-basis-point cu. Should it come to pass, the policy rate obviously will have dropped further – closer to one percent. For this to occur, the US economy likely needs to decelerate quite a bit.
US Housing Data Improve; ITB Breaks Out, Possible Breakout Retest N/T Will Be Telling
Over the past year, housing data – both survey- and activity-based – have gotten better.
Investors Intelligence Bulls Hit 68-Week High, Even As R2K Clings On To Crucial Support
Investors Intelligence bulls this week posted the highest since early October 2018 when US stocks were peaking.
Too Much Of A Good Thing Not Always Good
The post-Great Recession recovery has been uneven. Jobs have been one of the bright spots. In the dying months of last year, job openings – both non-farm and small-business – weakened.
Commitment Of Traders: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Bond bulls and bears continue to fight over control of trend-line support. There is plenty of overhead resistance for a sustained rally to occur
7 Weeks After 1600-Plus Breakout, Russell 2K Trying To Force Another Breakout
Once again, small-caps are at a crucial juncture. The Russell 2000 slightly retreated three weeks ago after rallying hard post-1600+ breakout.
S&P 500, Rising To Yet Another Record Intraday Tuesday, Increasingly Top-Heavy
US stocks continue to make fresh highs, with the leaders doing all the heavy lifting.
Investor Optimism Giddy Going Into 4Q19 Earnings Season
Elevated multiples have not bothered equity bulls. In recent months, the Fed too has come to their aid. Investor optimism is dangerously elevated going into the 4Q19 earnings season.
2019 Corporate Bond Issuance Up 5.8%, Outstanding Corporate Debt Elevated
US corporations issued 5.8 percent more bond last year than they did in 2018.
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned - Tuesday, Jan. 7
Last week, the 10-year T-yield (1.81 percent) essentially closed on trend-line support from September 3 when it fell to 1.43 percent.
Major US Equity Indices Show Indecision
It is early to declare that a trend is beginning, but last week was the first time in a while that major US equity indices were indecisive, showing early signs of fatigue.
Already-Extended S&P 500 Begins 2020 With A Bang, Investor Sentiment Exuberant
Last year was a bumper year for stocks. Conditions are extended, sentiment effusive. History has taught us over and over again unwinding can be painful.
Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned - Tuesday, Dec. 31
Last Tuesday’s intraday high of 1.95 percent was yet another instance in the last month and a half bond bears (on price) were denied just shy of two percent.
Despite Record S&P 500 Dividends, Yield Stagnant But Better Than 10-Year T-Yield
S&P 500 companies are doling out record dividends. Because the index has rallied massively, the dividend yield continues to linger around two percent.
Nasdaq Shorts Continue To Cover, Short Interest Remains Elevated
The Nasdaq rallied to yet another record high Tuesday. It is up over 16 percent since early October.
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