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Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ... more

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Nasdaq 100 Hesitates Around Important Resistance, Bulls Still Hold Ball
Tech’s role in this market needs no elaboration. Information technology makes up just north of 22 percent in the S&P 500 large-cap index.
Buybacks, Margin Debt Increasingly Headwind Than Tailwind
Stars may be lining up near term for equity bulls, but medium-term worries remain. Margin debt and corporate buybacks are no longer providing the kind of tailwind they did until recently.
Stars Lining Up For Decent Rally In Stocks
After rallying in June and most of July, stocks began selling off late last month. Bulls nonetheless have managed to defend major support, even as stars seem to be lining up for them – magnitude and duration notwithstanding.
Commitment Of Traders: Futures, Hedge Fund Positions This Week
It is too soon to conclude but it is possible the US dollar index has priced all this in. In this scenario, the path of least resistance is up – timing and duration notwithstanding.
Small-Business Optimism Near Record Highs, Several Sub-Indexes Diverge
Small-business optimism continues to remain near all-time highs, although several sub-indexes are diverging, including profit trend, which the Russell 2000 closely tracks.
Both Bulls And Bears Put Foot Down Last Week, This Week Crucial
Arguably, both bulls and bears won last week. Bears began the week with a big growl. Monday, the S&P 500 large cap index dropped three percent and the Nasdaq 100 3.6 percent.
Commitment Of Traders, Hedge Fund Positions For This Week
Peeking into the future through futures; how hedge funds are positioned.
VIX Acts Like It Is Itching To Go Lower N/T
VIX just rallied to a seven-month high. At the same time, it struggled to hang on to the gains in the past couple of sessions.
Equity Bulls Focused On Oversold Daily, Bears On Overbought Weekly
From currency to trade to Fed policy to the economy, traders are having a hard time keeping up.
After Last Week’s Drop, Relief Possible, But Downside Risks Remain
Stocks took it on the chin last week. Friday, major US equity indices all tested major averages – successfully.
Peeking Into The Future Thru Futures - Commitment Of Traders This Week
In the past, a spike reversal in the VIX is followed by downward pressure, so it bears watching next week.
Small-Cap Bulls Again Denied 1600 Breakout, 2950s-60s On S&P 500 Next Crucial Level
The Fed eased. This was expected. Chair Powell suggested it is not going to be a long rate-cutting campaign.
Sustained Drop In Fed Funds Correlates With Sustained Drop In Both Economy And Stocks
Later today, the Fed will have eased – probably by 25 basis points, to a range of 200 to 225 basis points. After having gone up 225 basis points over four years, the fed funds rate has remained unchanged since last December.
Breakout In Small-Caps Can Drive Several Metrics Into Dangerously Extended Territory
Large-caps keep making new highs. Should small-caps, which currently sit at a crucial juncture, manage to break out, risk-on sentiment can get a tailwind, driving several indicators – already extended – to dangerously extended territory.
This Week's Futures Positions Of Non-Commercials; Commitment Of Traders
The weekly remains grossly overbought. Shorter-term averages on the S&P 500 are flattening out. This could be a precursor to an imminent rollover. Next week’s trading is crucial.
Fed Set To Ease Next Week – Balance Sheet And IOER Repercussions Ahead
Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased. Besides being a first cut in nearly 11 years, the move has the potential to also impact the bank’s balance sheet and commercial bank earnings.
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