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Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ... more

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Manufacturing Orders Snap Back With V Shape – Strength Not Uniform Across The Board
Orders activity in manufacturing have snapped back with a V shape. But this recovery is not uniformly seen across the economy. Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft dropped y/y in March through June.
Likely February 24th Gap-Fill Only 0.7% Away
Volume is anemic, but ultimately price is the final arbiter. A 0.7-percent rally from Tuesday’s close will have filled a February 24th gap, which is likely to happen in the sessions ahead.
Shine Is Back On Gold – Breakout Retest Will Further Strengthen Gold Bugs’ Hands
Gold just broke out of a massive base, suggesting much higher prices in the future. At the same time, its current pace of gains has a parabolic touch to it.
CoT This Week: Looking Into The Near Future
The 21-day moving average of the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio ended the week at 0.468, with Wednesday’s 0.463 the lowest ever going back to October 2003. Greed is rampant.
FINRA Margin Debt Up $105.4bn From March Low – Absolute Low Probably Not In Yet
Between March and June, FINRA margin debt increased $105.4 billion, providing a nice tailwind for stocks.
4 Of Top 5 US Stocks Set To Report This Week, July Is Shaping Up As Potentially Bearish Shooting Star On Nasdaq 100
Tech stocks rallied massively in the past four months, with the leaders outpacing the soldiers by a wide margin. Last week, post-earnings reaction to several tech stocks including MSFT indicated a ‘sell the news’ phenomenon.
Commitment Of Traders: A Look Into The Near Future
CoT: Peek into the future through futures, how hedge funds are positioned.
Equity Options Lean Heavily Bullish – Matter Of When, Not If, Current Greed Gives Way To Fear
US equity indices have had massive gains in the past four months. In the options market, calls heavily outweigh puts – to a point where it is beginning to look dangerously lop-sided. During such times it pays to take out the caution hat.
Subtle Warning Signs From Tech – After Massive Gains Since March Low, Profit Protection Likely To Drive Decisions
Last week, the Russell 2000 jumped 3.6 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.8 percent. If investors are indeed moving away from tech toward small-caps, this is not good news for markets as a whole.
Looking Into The Future Via CoT This Week
The index has essentially gone sideways for six weeks. Some signs of distribution appeared this week, but bulls are yet to let go of the prevailing momentum.
After Several Tries, Russell 2000 Breaks Out Of 1450s, But Bears Not Backing Down Just Yet
The Russell 2000 Wednesday broke out of 1450s, although bulls were forced to retest the breakout in the very next session.
Well-Behaved Inflation – And Outlook – Key To Fed’s Ultra Accommodative Monetary Policy
June’s CPI was reported yesterday. Inflation behaves well. This makes the Fed’s job easier to continue to pour liquidity into the system. All hell breaks loose once inflation refuses to cooperate – whenever that is.
Nasdaq Bulls Eye Squeeze Opportunity, Bears Fancy Repeat Of How Index Collapsed Late ’08
In the latest period, Nasdaq/QQQ shorts went on an offensive. The index/ETF rallied to a fresh high last Friday. Longs are salivating over the jump in short interest as yet another squeeze opportunity.
CoT: Looking At The Future Thru Futures, July 12
Non-commercials continue to cover their shorts, which three weeks ago had surged to the highest since October 2011, and that has helped the bulls. Otherwise, fund flows have not been in cooperation.
1H20 Corporate Debt Issuance Already Matches Last Year’s Issuance
Already-levered US corporations are levering up even more. The first half this year already matched issuance of last year.
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned, Tuesday, July 7
Gold has come a long way, having dropped to $1,450.90 intraday on March 16th. In the event it proceeds to unwind its daily overbought condition, $1,750s, or between $1,700 and $1,750s, should generate buying interest.
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