Norman Mogil Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

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E The Economic Recovery Is Slowing Before Our Very Eyes
Consumers continue to be reluctant to spend on personal services, while consumption of goods has been satisfied and now is tapering off.
E The Canadian Economy Stumbles Out Of The Gate
Today's release of the Canadian GDP numbers for the second quarter demonstrated that we are clearly not in a recovery mode, despite all the predictions of the bank economists.
E Business Loans Have Virtually Collapsed Hurting The Canadian Recovery Efforts
The Canadian banks chalked up significant profits last quarter, as the accountants decided to re-instate provisions for loan losses taken in prior quarters.
E The Myth Of Pent-Up Demand
Canadians have been hearing a lot about the “pent-up demand” that will characterize the recovery from the 2020 deep recession.
E Real Wages And Inflation Or Where Here The Rubber Meets The Road
The anticipated economic recovery is now facing one of its most severe tests as real wages confront the recent surge in consumer prices.
E Real Interest Rates Continue Their Descendent Sending A Deflationary Message
The current decline in real interest rates largely reflects a major shift in investor expectations for future inflation and economic growth.
E For The Bank Of Canada, It Is All About Closing The Output Gap, Not The Recent Surge In Consumer Prices
At today’s decision, the Governing Council judged that the recovery still needs extraordinary support from monetary policy.
E Canadian Job Market Rebounds, But Only For Part-time Workers
The Canadian labour market is a long way from approaching, let alone returning to normal.
E Do The Inflation Targets Set By The Central Banks Really Matter?
The bond market has staked out a position that rapid growth and accompanying inflation are no longer revealed in the tea leaves.
E Liquidity Is Trapped In The Banks
In rare fashion, the banks are no longer greatly eager to have your deposits, despite the surge in individual and corporate cash balances looking for a home.
E Canadian Net Worth Increases Despite COVID-19
We are all familiar with the Canadian data regarding the nearly millions of workers still without jobs. For these individuals it is the “worst of times.” But for the nation as a whole, it has been the “best of times.”
E Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
The May employment numbers in Canada serve as a perfect example of how damaging the pandemic has been to the economy.
E The Deflationary Forces From Rising Debt Loads Will Keep Interest Rates Low
There is a steady drumbeat that inflation is on its way, conjuring up reminders of the 1970s and early 1980s experience.
E Canadian Banks Are Not In A Lending Mood
It is one thing to stage a recovery from this pandemic-induced recession, but it is entirely a different matter to promote an expansion.
E Canada’s Employment Situation Takes A Turn For The Worse
Canada’s recovery process was severely knocked on its heels with the revelation that 207,000 jobs were lost in April.
E Canada Is Challenged To Fill The Hole Created By The Pandemic
Let me describe the impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy to date and just how large is the economic hole in which we find ourselves.
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