New Deal Democrat | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog
As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ...more

All Contributions

Latest Posts
1 to 16 of 1071 Posts
1 2 3 ... 67 >>>
The Bifurcation Of The New Vs. Existing Home Markets Continues
The bifurcation of the new vs. existing home markets continued in March, per the report on existing home sales and prices yesterday.
Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday, April 18
For the last 8 months, initial and continuing claims have been remarkably consistent.
Simultaneous Declines In Housing Permits, Starts, And Units Under Construction In March Suggests Seasonality Glitch, Not A Change In Trend
There was a big decline in housing starts last month, and a smaller but significant decline in permits. Whether that signifies a change in trend or just noise is the issue.
Industrial Production For March Is Positive, But The Overall Trend Remains Flat
In March, total production increased by 0.4% from an upwardly revised, 0.2%, February; but it is still down -0.6% from its September 2022 post-pandemic peak.
Real Retail Sales Rebound, Forecast A Continued “Soft Landing” For Jobs Growth
Nominally retail sales increased 0.7% in March, while February’s number was revised higher by 0.3% to 0.9%.
March Consumer Price Inflation Was Still Mainly About The Dynamics Of Shelter And Gas Prices
The big takeaway for the last several months has been a renewed increase in gas prices, while the deceleration in shelter inflation has slowed.
Real Average Wages And Aggregate Payrolls Signal Continued Growth
Real wages have declined in the past several months, but they have not broken the trend yet.
Initial Claims Continue To Be Rangebound, And A Positive For The Near Term Forecast
Initial claims continued to be rangebound this week, declining -11,000 to 211,000.
Scenes From The Robust March Jobs Report
The news from the employment report was almost all good. Let’s follow up on the most important points today.
March Jobs Report: Almost Uniformly Positive, Making A “Soft Landing” The Default 2024 Scenario
This month’s report hit on nearly all cylinders, with both the Household and Establishment Surveys participating.
Decline In Continuing Claims, Stability In Initial Claims Suggest Downward Pressure On The Unemployment Rate
Initial claims in the last week rose 9,000 to 221,000, while the four-week moving average increased 2,750 to 214,250. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims declined 19,000 to 1.791 million.
Does Consumer Sentiment Correlate With The Real Economy?
The University of Michigan has been measuring consumer sentiment for over half a century. The last 45 years are available on FRED.
February JOLTS Report: Soft Landing-ish? - Except For A Noisy Jump In Layoffs
The JOLTS report for February showed stabilization or slight improvement to all but one of its components, generally suggesting, well, stabilization in the overall jobs market.
Monthly Data Starts Out With Slightly Positive News In Manufacturing, Slightly Negative In Construction
The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading indicator in that sector for 75 years.
Real Personal Income And Spending: If Last Month Was “Goldilocks”, This Month Was Close To “Anti-Goldilocks”
Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports.
Initial Claims Remain Somnolent, While Continuing Claims Pop Slightly
The divergence in the trends between initial and continuing claims continued this week.
1 to 16 of 1071 Posts
1 2 3 ... 67 >>>