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Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog

As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more

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Nailed It!
Three weeks ago I wrote No, the Meuller report ***DID NOT*** “find no collusion!”
Weekly Indicators For March 11 - 15 Are Up
The rebound after the government shutdown has lifted the nowcast into slightly positive territory. Still, it seems clear at this point that the shutdown caused the already-weakening economy to skirt with recession during December and January.
More Evidence For A Q4 “Recession Watch”
About a month ago, based on those Q4 2018 reports that had not been delayed by the government shutdown, plus workarounds for those that were missing, I went of “Recession Watch” for Q4 of this year.
Weekly Indicators For February 11 - 15
There was some widespread deterioration among both the short leading and coincident weekly data, as well as the monthly data.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: More Contrary Movement In Long And Short Leading Indicators
The short term and long term forecasts continued to diverge ever so slightly.
1 to 5 of 5 Posts