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New Deal Democrat

Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog
As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ...more
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Blogs

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1 to 16 of 19 Posts
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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Calm Before The Category 5 Constitutional Hurricane?
Saturday, September 26, 2020 1:42 AM EDT
All three time frames remain very positive, as they have been for the past month or better. But for the first time, political risk must be mentioned as a factor in the near-term picture.
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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Rebounding Metrics Confront Rebounding Virus
Friday, June 26, 2020 6:43 PM EDT
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: The Housing Market Returns To Life
Saturday, May 16, 2020 6:59 AM EDT
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: First Likely Impact Of Coronavirus Fears, While Financial Measures Look For A Bottom
Saturday, March 7, 2020 7:00 AM EDT
Stocks, bonds, and commodities all appeared to grope for a deflationary bottom this past week. Meanwhile, the only "hard" data that likely showed coronavirus impact as a significant further deterioration in intermodal rail shipments.
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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Nowcast Falls To Neutral, Still Buoyed By Consumer Spending
Saturday, February 15, 2020 7:00 AM EDT
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Coronavirus And A Jump In Regional Manufacturing Take Center Stage
Saturday, February 1, 2020 12:45 AM EDT
New orders as reported by the regional Fed bank jumped to their best level since 2018. But this was overwhelmed by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic scare on bonds and commodities in particular.
In this article: DDM, DIA
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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Volatile Short-Term Forecast Rebounds
Saturday, January 18, 2020 1:50 AM EDT
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because, while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
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Republics And The War-Making Power
Sunday, January 5, 2020 4:21 PM EDT
In view of the military carrying out Trump’s order to kill an Iranian general, I thought I would weigh in on the issue of the war-making power historically by republics.
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Live-blogging The Fifteenth Amendment: December 15, 1868
Sunday, December 15, 2019 4:17 PM EDT
Sen Orrin S. Ferry (R-Conn), in the course of offering a joint resolution to lift the disabilities mandated by the 3rd Section of the Fourteenth Amendment against those who participated in the rebellion:
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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Solid Corporate Profits Further Indicate Recession Risk Receding
Saturday, November 2, 2019 7:12 AM EDT
Recession risk is receding as the weak manufacturing sector is simply not enough to overcome the solid consumer sector.
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Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Stocks Fail To Make New Highs, But Consumers Keep Powering Along
Saturday, October 26, 2019 7:09 AM EDT
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Read
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Dovish Fed Adds To Positive Long-Term Forecast
Saturday, July 13, 2019 12:40 AM EDT
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Read
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Short-Term Forecast Returns To Negative
Saturday, July 6, 2019 7:35 AM EDT
With the continuing slide in long-term interest rates, the long term forecast has turned even more positive. But the short-term forecast has returned to negative from neutral.
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Weekly Indicators For June 10 - 14
Sunday, June 16, 2019 2:35 AM EDT
The divergence between the near term vs. longer term forecast is increasing, and the risk that the forecast is too optimistic is asymmetrical, because Trump’s chaotic tariff behavior cannot improve the situation, but can definitely cause harm.
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Nailed It!
Sunday, April 21, 2019 11:24 PM EDT
Three weeks ago I wrote No, the Meuller report ***DID NOT*** “find no collusion!”
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Weekly Indicators For March 11 - 15 Are Up
Saturday, March 16, 2019 5:18 PM EDT
The rebound after the government shutdown has lifted the nowcast into slightly positive territory. Still, it seems clear at this point that the shutdown caused the already-weakening economy to skirt with recession during December and January.
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1 to 16 of 19 Posts
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