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Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog

As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more

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Initial And Continued Claims Show Stalling Progress In Rehiring
Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment.
June Jobs Report: The Last Hurrah Of The Wished-For “V-Shaped” Coronavirus Recovery
4,800,000 million jobs added. This makes up about 22% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April.
June Data Starts Out With A Bright Spot In Manufacturing
This morning the ISM reported that manufacturing in the US rebounded strongly, up +9.5 from a contracting reading of 43.1 to an expanding reading of 52.6.
All 4 Coincident Indicators Of Recession Improved In May Vs. April
With this morning’s release of personal income and spending, we now have all 4 coincident indicators for May that the NBER uses to determine whether the economy is in a recession or recovery/expansion.
Initial Jobless Claims Improve Slightly; Continuing Claims Resume Decline
Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment.
New And Continued Jobless Claims Level Off, As Spreading Secondary Impacts And Job Recalls Balance
Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment.
The Coronavirus Recession May Already (Technically) Have Ended: Sales And Production Both Increased In May
Sales and production are two of the four things that economists look for in gauging whether the economy is in expansion or recession, and this morning both of them - retail sales and industrial production - were released for May.
The Costs Of Recklessly Reopening Begin To Come Due
It is pretty clear now that in general those States which left lockdowns the earliest and with the most lax continuing restrictions are suffering renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus, 'possibly' in several cases verging on exponential spread.
Initial Jobless Claims Decline Further, But Continuing Claims Fail To Make Meaningful Progress
Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus to the average worker. Twelve weeks after calamity first struck, the theme remains “less awful.”
May Inflation Steadies: Meanwhile, An Artificial All Time High In “Real” Wages
In May, overall consumer prices declined by -0.1%, while consumer prices excluding energy (gas) rose +0.1%.
Jobless Claims: “Less Awful” Trend Mainly Continues - For Now
The monthly May data has started to come in, giving us our first comparable data after the coronavirus recession struck.
April Personal Income And Spending: Considering The Extreme Circumstances, A Good Report
April personal income and spending, reported this morning, showed the impact of both the lockdowns and the stimulus that was passed by the Congress.
Initial And Continuing Jobless Claims: Good "Less Worse" News
Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the best snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus to the average worker.
Initial Jobless Claims: Employment Damage Continues To Spread
Now that there is more than one month of data from initial and continuing jobless claims since the coronavirus lockdowns started.
Housing Permits And Starts Plummet In April, But Mortgage Applications Suggest Big Rebound In May
The April report on housing permits and starts, released yesterday morning, sets the baseline both for the impact of the coronavirus recession and for a potential recovery.
Three Virus-Related Thoughts For Sunday
Here are my thoughts, as of today on the COVID-19 pandemic...
1 to 16 of 259 Posts
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