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Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog

As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more

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New Home Sales Suggest Housing Bottom Is In
New home sales are extremely volatile and extremely revised, but they do have the advantage of probably being the single most leading housing statistic, ahead of permits and starts.
When Will Residential Construction Employment Start To Decline?
While construction jobs as a whole do lead, residential construction jobs have been the most leading sector of construction jobs.
March Real Retail Sales Very Strong, But No "All Clear" Yet
This morning’s retail sales report for March was very strong on both a nominal basis, up +1.6%, and also on a real, inflation-adjusted basis, up +1.2%.
YoY Industrial Production And Structural Changes To The US Economy Since 1980
One of the things that made the “Great Recession” so “great” was that it had the biggest ever downturn in jobs in the services sector, over -3%:
Industrial Production Continues To Decelerate
March 2019 production continued a string of recent disappointments, with overall production declining -0.1%, and manufacturing production unchanged.
February JOLTS: A Mirror Of The Poor Jobs Report
The JOLTS report on labor is noteworthy and helpful because it breaks down the jobs market into a more granular look at hiring, firing, and voluntary quits.
Real Wages Got Gassed In March
The consumer price index rose +0.4% in March, mainly as a result of a big monthly increase in gas prices.
Downturn In Manufacturing New Orders Adds To Evidence Of Slowdown
Overall new orders nor core new orders have made a new high in 6 months as of February, and are likely to be down two quarters in a row once we have March’s data, is certainly evidence of a slowdown in manufacturing.
I Told You So: The March Employment Report Showed A Slowdown In The Leading Sectors
For the past few months, I have been forecasting a jobs slowdown. That has been based in part on the natural progression of a downturn in long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, and finally to coincident indicators.
March Jobs Report: Good Nowcast, Concerning Forecast
The headline jobs number was very good, although a little below the pace of last year. But the internals were generally neutral to negative.
March News Good So Far; The Fed Has Plenty Of Scope To Cut Rates
So far, March data is running pretty positive.
Watch For Temp Jobs Weakness In Friday’s Employment Report
After the 2015-16 shallow industrial recession, the growth in temp jobs picked up decently. But in the last four months, only about 2250 temp jobs per month have been added.
Manufacturing Slowdown Apparent, But No Contraction
The ISM manufacturing index, and its more leading new orders sub-index, both continued positive in March, with the former at 55.3 and the latter at 57.4.
Retail Sales Flash Yellow
This morning’s retail sales report for February was disappointing on a monthly basis, but also signals caution for the economy as a whole.
Real Personal Income And Spending Sag
Along with jobs and wages, household and personal income and spending are my main focus on how average Americans are doing in the economy.
The Last Long Leading Indicator, Corporate Profits, Declined In Q4 2018
Three months after the quarter ended, corporate profits for Q4 of 2018 were reported this morning, and they were down slightly (-0.1%).
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