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Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog

As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more


Latest Posts
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Initial Jobless Claims Make Further Progress Towards November Lows
This week, on an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims increased by 31,519 to 748,078. Seasonally adjusted claims increased by 9,000 to 745,000. The 4-week moving average declined by 17,250 to 790,750. 
Household Debt And The Pandemic
The Federal Reserve publishes a quarterly update tracking the issue of how stretched were American households in paying their monthly bills.
Two Leading Sectors Of The Economy - Manufacturing And Housing - Turn Even Hotter
Both construction spending and ISM manufacturing data are at levels not seen in years.
January Personal Income And Spending Show How Important Government Stimulus Has Been To Keeping The Economy Afloat
This morning’s report on January's personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enacted by the federal government both last spring and last month have been to sustain the economy.
Initial Jobless Claims: It Appears That The Worst Of The Winter 2020-21 Increase Is Behind Us
This week, on an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 131,734 to 710,313. Seasonally adjusted claims decreased by 111,000 to 730,000.
New Home Sales Rise M/M, But Signal Caution For Housing Market Going Forward
New home sales increased to a three-month annualized high of 923,000 in January. This is of a piece with the positive news last week on housing permits.
You’re Reading The Right Blog: 2021 Economy Edition
Yesterday morning, January’s index of leading indicators came in at plus 0.3%, the 9th positive reading in a row
Strength In Housing And Cars, Oh My!
The two consumer goods which turn down before recessions, and up before recoveries, are houses and motor vehicles, in that order.
Jobless Claims: Huge Upward Revisions For The Second Week In A Row
This week, on an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 5,702 to 862,351. Seasonally adjusted claims increased by 13,000 to 861,000.
Industrial Production Continues Strong Growth
If real retail sales is the best proxy for the health of the consumer, Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, is the same for production. 
Blockbuster January Retail Sales Presage Gains In Jobs
Real retail sales is my bellwether for the health of the consumer. And after 3 months of declines, we got a huge upturn in January.
Initial And Continued Jobless Claims: Signs That The Worst Of The Pandemic Related Layoffs May Be Behind Us
Some - very relative - good news in unemployment claims this week. It looks like the recent increase in new claims has peaked, while continued claims continue to decline.
December JOLTS Report Shows Renewed Stalled Jobs Market Due To Out Of Control Pandemic
This morning’s JOLTS report for December confirmed a jobs market recovery that has paused due to the increasing effects of the out of control pandemic.
January 2021 Jobs Report: A Strong Divergence Between Very Weak Job Gains, But A Big Drop In Unemployment
49,000 million jobs added, only 5,000 of which were in the private sector and 43,000 in government.
Initial Claims Decline, Continuing Claims Set Another New Pandemic Low
On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 23,525 to 816,247. Seasonally adjusted claims declined by 33,000 to 779,000. The 4-week moving average also declined by 1,250 to 848,250. 
The Two Most Leading Sectors Of The Real Economy - Manufacturing And Construction - Remain “On Fire”
While the ISM manufacturing reading declined from 60.7 to 58.7, since 50 is the break-even point, this is still a very strong positive.
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