Kirk Spano Blog | CES 2020: EVs Could Dominate New Car Sales By 2030 | Talkmarkets
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I grew up in a middle class working family in Milwaukee. I remember long gas lines, the first home my parents bought and the recession of the early 1980s. My parents sacrificed to put me through Catholic Schools at a time that Milwaukee Public Schools were beginning to fail. I also ... more

CES 2020: EVs Could Dominate New Car Sales By 2030

Date: Monday, January 13, 2020 12:17 PM EDT

Summary

  • EVs will likely make up 50-80% of new car sales by 2030.
  • Even with potentially watered down fuel efficiency standards by the Trump administration, European and Chinese mandates guarantee mass EV penetration.
  • Level 5 autonomous driving won't happen in the 2020s.
  • Tesla (TSLA) could become one of the biggest car companies, but Ford looks likely to drive mass EV adoption in the U.S.
  • GM (GM) is in a precarious position as it lags most of the industry for both luxury EVs and mass market EVs.

The 2020 Consumer Electronics Show [CES] is over and I have been doing some reading, reviewing and reflecting as I await a flight home after being delayed by ice and snow.

The major takeaway from CES 2020 is we are about to see a massive technological and economic shift in the 2020s as the merger of 5G, IoT and AI impacts almost everything.

IoT 5G AI

The implications for investors from the coming technology wave are massive. We are going to witness the best positioned companies break away from the pack, while others, literally, go to zero.

Over the next two weeks, I will cover the most important investor takeaways from CES 2020. The thoughts I present are derived from what I have heard, seen and read during CES 2020 and subsequent follow-up. Here is a link to the first in the series: CES 2020: Investing In Artificial Intelligence

Today, we dive into what the future of the automotive industry looks like from an investment standpoint. Deeper dives into individual investment ideas will be required.

The EVs ARE Coming!

There has been ongoing debate among investors about the future of electric vehicles. As always, I try to take a step back from the noise, especially when it gets ideological (you should too), and fall back on our 4-step investment process.

The first stop in our investment research process at Margin of Safety Investing is to evaluate the big secular trends. By knowing which way the long-term trends are moving, we can break down the impacts on investment ideas at the industry and corporate level.

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