I think your concerns are very valid.

Not a big fan of Facebook the platform as a user, either. But ultimately, FB the company has the tech (algorithms), data, know-how, business network etc. to quickly grow any social network they may acquire or develop organically.

It may well be that social networks have generational life cycles of 20 years of so. But the human need to connect with others will not go away. And while platform "brands" may age, competitive advantages in the underlying infrastructure (back-end) remain. Yesterday the trendy brand was Facebook, today it is Instagram and tomorrow it'll be something else. Chances are FB the company will keep reigning because they can afford to pay 2x as much as any other company for the next social "brand"/front-edge and still generate lots of value thanks to their advantages in the back-end.

With news curation: it is a problem to all platforms, not only FB. Not competitor will be able to allow fake-news/hate speech etc. on its platform and get away with it for very long...

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You're right that the case is more clear for $TSLA than for $AAPL.

I think for $AAPL, it boils down to the progress of Project Titan --their automotive program.

It Titan is in better shape than the consensus belief, then they may do well to pass on the opportunity. Although I'm very skeptical of Titan. Even if they are developing a 1st class self-driving solution consisting of sensors, chips and SW, it would be the first time they don't take full control of the overall product --the car.

Also, EV brand authenticity belongs to Tesla. It is too late for Apple to develop the brand power it has on handheld devices in EV, IMO.

Yes, that's why we think there would be a chance of Musk agreeing this time.

Although he is unlikely to relinquish control. That was apparently the deal breaker with Softbank one year ago.

That ideal for investors would be that he maintains control (and 20% ownership) but welcomes outside help (financial and operational).

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Hi Carol,

There will be many winners, and Google has everything on its favor to win big time.

Not only have they taken an early lead in deep learning academic research (as measured by contributions to key conferences, deep mind's achievements, etc.), but they also have the data and go-to-market platforms to capitalize that lead commercially (think Search, Android, Play, Maps, YouTube...).

The question is how well will they monetize those advantages. Admittedly, there are better executors than Alphabet management, but the advantages are so many and the stock price so moderate as to provide compelling risk-reward, in our view.

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