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Professional Bear
Contributor's Links: Credit Bubble Bulletin

I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a “professional bear”.  My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco.  Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during ... more

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Weekly Commentary: Collision Course
Everything points to powerful inflationary dynamics and a Federal Reserve hopelessly “behind the curve.' The war in Ukraine drags on, and all you need to know about the past week.
Weekly Commentary: Playing With Fire
Rate markets are now pricing in a 2.54% Fed funds rate by the FOMC’s Dec. 14, meeting. This is up from 33 bps in October, 82 bps to begin 2022, and 1.30% on March 1. Seems the stock market took this ratcheting up of tightening expectations in stride.
Weekly Commentary: Historic Q1 2022
IS Putin’s overarching goal to divide the world? Putin has over the years railed against a U.S.-dominated world. He abhors the dollar-based global financial apparatus.
Weekly Commentary: The Big Test
It’s been some time since the Fed commenced a serious tightening cycle. Previous moves to raise rates progressed gingerly, so as not to risk upsetting the cherished stock market.
Weekly Commentary: War In Ukraine
The situation has deteriorated beyond what anyone thought likely. The evil is more extreme; the courage and determination of the Ukrainians even more phenomenal. Myriad risks are of an extreme nature.
Weekly Commentary: Decision Made
Bubbles are sustained only by ever increasing amounts of Credit. The most pernicious Bubbles are those fueled by “money” – perceived safe and liquid Credit instruments.
Weekly Commentary: Lost Control
Hyperbole is unnecessary. Inflation is out of Control. The Fed would prefer us to believe otherwise, offering assurances that it is prepared to use “all its tools” to return inflation back to its comfortable 2% target level.
Weekly Commentary: A Changing World
The global central bank community has been wrong on inflation. Their analysis lacked objectivity and analytical vigor. Groupthink. Flatfooted.
Weekly Commentary: The High-Wire Act Has Commenced
Geez. I guess it’s been a long time since we’ve experienced a hawkish central banker. Powell needed to talk tough on inflation. Yet he seemed determined to occupy the middle ground. There was no suggestion of a possible 50 bps rate hike in March.
Weekly Commentary: Kaufman Knows Inflation
For those unfamiliar with the esteemed Henry Kaufman, he was a Fed economist before becoming a Wall Street legend in the seventies as chief economist and head of bond market research at Salomon Brothers. Kaufman Knows Inflation.
Weekly Commentary: 2021 Year In Review
Books will be written chronicling 2021. I’ll boil an extraordinary year’s developments down to a few simple words: “Things Ran Wild”. COVID ran wild. Monetary inflation ran wild. Inflation, in general, ran completely wild.
EC Rounding Up A Wild Week
It was another volatile week for global markets, stoked by a combination of central bank meetings and heightened COVID anxieties.
Weekly Commentary: Two Developments And The Q3 2021 Z.1
China in an about face implemented policy easing measures, cutting reserve requirements and announcing a loosening of property finance. This was to get ahead of an Evergrande default along with rapidly deteriorating developer financing conditions.
Weekly Commentary: Walk The Walk
Chair Powell (and the Fed) have stepped away from the ledge. Their dismissive approach to inflation risk was both untenable and an increasing embarrassment and because of this institutional credibility has taken a major hit.
Weekly Commentary: Trouble On The Horizon
I am not optimistic about the impact Europe’s COVID outbreak will have on the unfolding global financial crisis. Germany reported a record 65,000 new infections Thursday. And, according to Bloomberg, infections are now doubling every 12 days.
Weekly Commentary: Dow 36,000 And Policy Mistakes
More evidence this week of a historic mania running unchecked. The Russell 2000 jumped 6.1% this week, with the Semiconductors up 8.8%. The Goldman Sachs Most Short Index surged 11.7%. The Dow hit 36,000 and it was Deja Vu All Over Again.
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