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Professional Bear
Contributor's Links: Credit Bubble Bulletin

I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a “professional bear”.  My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco.  Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during ... more

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Weekly Commentary: Un-Anchored
We live in a period of acute disorder – monetary and otherwise. The Fed's dovish Fed policies and the great bull market are all equally well anchored. Yet this is not an environment where we should expect anything to be securely anchored.
Weekly Commentary: Peak Monetary Stimulus
Too soon to be discussing a new “conundrum,” but I am finding the various explanations of Treasury market behavior interesting – if not convincing.
Weekly Commentary: Huarong And Chinese Banking
China’s Aggregate Financing (their measure of broad system credit) jumped $512 billion during March, pushing Q1 growth to $1.569 TN. Over the past 15 months, China’s Aggregate Financing expanded an unprecedented $6.9 TN – or 17%.
Weekly Commentary: Archegos And Ponzi Finance
Why would Archegos employ such a risky strategy – basically reckless leveraging of volatile equities exposure? We can only assume the firm was emboldened by the hyper-loose policy and liquidity backdrop.
Weekly Commentary: Powell On Inflation
The Treasury yield spike runs unabated. Ten-year Treasury yields rose another 10 bps this week to 1.72%, the high since January 23, 2020. The Treasury five-year “breakeven” inflation rate rose to 2.65% in Tuesday trading, the high since July 2008.
Weekly Commentary: The Great 2021 Squeeze Mania
Yet another week for the history books. For posterity: GameStop gained 400%, AMC Entertainment 278%, Express 235%, Siebert Financial 122%, Cel-Sci 75%, Novavax 74%, Vaxart 68%, Fulgent Genetics 60%, Vir Biotech 59%, National Bev 54%, and Fossil 47%.
Weekly Commentary: 2020 Year In Review
In the middle of a devastating pandemic, financial conditions loosened dramatically throughout the emerging markets. Equities and bond markets rallied spectacularly. It was truly a year for the history books.
Weekly Commentary: $10.275 TN In Nine Months
Federal Reserve Assets surged $120 billion last week to a record $7.363 TN. Fed Assets inflated $3.593 TN, or 95%, over the past 66 weeks. M2 “money” supply surged $228 billion in this week’s report to a record $19.226 TN.
Weekly Commentary: Pondering The New Treasury Secretary
Janet Yellen as the new Secretary of the Treasury is being universally well-received by the markets. But in my commitment to accurately chronicle history there’s an aspect of Yellen’s career that should not be overlooked: Her failure as Fed chair.
Weekly Commentary: Critical Juncture
We’ve grown accustomed to the “new normal”: Stock market ebullience even as the country suffers through a distressing confluence of hardships. The S&P 500 surged 7.3% this week, the strongest weekly advance since April.
Weekly Commentary: The New Massive
The system has commenced a grand experiment in New Massive deficit spending. This follows years of very large (formerly known as “massive”) deficits.
Weekly Commentary: Covid Uncertainties
It significantly raises the stakes for a potential nightmare scenario: with less than five weeks until election day, the President contracts COVID-19.
Weekly Commentary: Extraordinary Q2 2020 Z.1 Flow Of Funds
The Fed’s own data illuminate the historic Monetary Disorder that today runs wild. In short, finance has completely run amok, with the data corroborating the super cycle “end game” thesis.
Revisiting "Coin In The Fuse Box"
Powell is struggling to reinforce flagging Federal Reserve credibility. Trichet was focused on establishing credibility for the unproven European Central Bank.
State-Directed Credit Splurge
With 2020 GDP estimates in the 2.0 to 3.0% range, the divergence between Chinese Credit and economic output is unprecedented.
Summer Of 2020
QE fundamentally changed finance. What commenced at the Federal Reserve with a post-mortgage finance Bubble, $1TN Treasury buying operation morphed into open-ended purchases of Treasuries, MBS, corporate bonds and more.
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