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Professional Bear
Contributor's Links: Credit Bubble Bulletin

I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a “professional bear”.  My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco.  Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during ... more

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Weekly Commentary: Global Lender Of Last Resort
Understandably, attention remains focused on the dominant U.S. tech stocks, record highs in Nasdaq, sector rotation opportunities, and the Robinhood phenomenon. It’s a mania, after all.
Weekly Commentary: Precarious World
Compliments of COVID, inequality is now rightfully considered one of the critical issues of this era. Fed measures directly – and conspicuously - benefit Wall Street firms and clients, the general markets, corporations, and the wealthy.
Weekly Commentary: Crossing Red Lines
COVID stimulus stoked Bubble Dynamics for global risk assets, certainly including Chinese equities. This Bubble has turned unstable.
Weekly Commentary: Drone Money
With highly speculative securities markets having fully recovered COVID losses – and Nasdaq sporting a 17% y-t-d gain – why the talk of more QE?
Weekly Commentary: Utmost Crazy
The Shanghai Composite surged 7.3% this week, increasing y-t-d gains to 10.9%. The CSI 300 rose 7.6%, with 2020 gains of 16.0%. China’s growth-oriented ChiNext Index’s 12.8% surge boosted year-to-date gains to 54.5%.
Weekly Commentary: Two Down, Two To Go
US stocks finished their best quarter in over 20 years with the SP500 returning 20.5%, DJT up 19.2%, NYSE Financial Index up 13.1%, and the broader market outperforming. It's a year for the history books with two quarters down and two to go.
Weekly Commentary: More W Than V
The much vaunted “V” recovery is improbable. To simplify, a somewhat “w”-looking scenario is a higher probability. After such an abrupt and extraordinary collapse in economic activity, a decent bounce was virtually assured.
Weekly Commentary: Extraordinary Q1 2020 Z.1 Flow Of Funds
Financial crisis erupted in March. The Fed slashed rates at a March 3rd emergency meeting – and then began aggressively expanding its holdings/balance sheet. Even from a “flow of funds” perspective, it was one extraordinary quarter.
Weekly Commentary: Bubble Meets Pandemic Consequences
Over the past three weeks (14 sessions), the S&P 500 gained 11.5%. The KBW Bank Index surged 36.1%, with the NYSE Financials up 23.9%. The Dow Transports rose 27.2% in 14 sessions, with the Bloomberg Americas Airlines Index up 75.8%.
Weekly Commentary: Just The Facts - May 24, 2020
All you need to know from the past week...
Weekly Commentary: Global Bubbles Are Deflating
“Bubble” is commonly understood to describe a divergence between overvalued market prices and underlying asset values. A Bubble is a self-reinforcing, but inevitably unsustainable, inflation.
Weekly Commentary: Schumpeter's Business Cycle Analysis
Central bankers are these days keener than ever to fixate on their inflation mandate and targets. That inflation dynamics evolve over recent decades is apparently not worthy of discussion. The impetus is to stimulate more aggressively than ever.
Weekly Commentary: Going Nuclear
At the commencement of WWII, President Roosevelt marshaled an agreement from the major warring parties to avoid the bombing of civilian targets. It was not long before civilians living near military installations were considered collateral damage.
EC Weekly Commentary: Fault Lines
Now on a weekly basis, we're witnessing things that couldn’t happen – actually happen.
Weekly Commentary: Crazy, Dangerous Things
Crazy, dangerous things have taken root in policy circles. Traditional norms are being tossed out. Deficits don’t matter; the size of central bank balance sheets doesn’t matter; what central banks purchase doesn’t matter; money doesn’t matter.
Weekly Commentary: When Money Died
M2 “money supply” surged another $371 billion for the week (ending 3/30) to a record $16.669 TN. M2 expanded an unprecedented $1.136 TN over five weeks (up $2.123 TN, or 14.6%, y-o-y).
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