Professional Bear
Contributor's Links: Credit Bubble Bulletin

I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a “professional bear”.  My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco.  Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during ... more


Weekly Commentary: Collision Course
Everything points to powerful inflationary dynamics and a Federal Reserve hopelessly “behind the curve.' The war in Ukraine drags on, and all you need to know about the past week.
Weekly Commentary: Playing With Fire
Rate markets are now pricing in a 2.54% Fed funds rate by the FOMC’s Dec. 14, meeting. This is up from 33 bps in October, 82 bps to begin 2022, and 1.30% on March 1. Seems the stock market took this ratcheting up of tightening expectations in stride.
Weekly Commentary: Historic Q1 2022
IS Putin’s overarching goal to divide the world? Putin has over the years railed against a U.S.-dominated world. He abhors the dollar-based global financial apparatus.
Weekly Commentary: The Big Test
It’s been some time since the Fed commenced a serious tightening cycle. Previous moves to raise rates progressed gingerly, so as not to risk upsetting the cherished stock market.
Weekly Commentary: War In Ukraine
The situation has deteriorated beyond what anyone thought likely. The evil is more extreme; the courage and determination of the Ukrainians even more phenomenal. Myriad risks are of an extreme nature.
Weekly Commentary: Decision Made
Bubbles are sustained only by ever increasing amounts of Credit. The most pernicious Bubbles are those fueled by “money” – perceived safe and liquid Credit instruments.


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