Professional Bear
Contributor's Links: Credit Bubble Bulletin

I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a “professional bear”.  My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco.  Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during ... more


Weekly Commentary: Un-Anchored
We live in a period of acute disorder – monetary and otherwise. The Fed's dovish Fed policies and the great bull market are all equally well anchored. Yet this is not an environment where we should expect anything to be securely anchored.
Weekly Commentary: Peak Monetary Stimulus
Too soon to be discussing a new “conundrum,” but I am finding the various explanations of Treasury market behavior interesting – if not convincing.
Weekly Commentary: Huarong And Chinese Banking
China’s Aggregate Financing (their measure of broad system credit) jumped $512 billion during March, pushing Q1 growth to $1.569 TN. Over the past 15 months, China’s Aggregate Financing expanded an unprecedented $6.9 TN – or 17%.
Weekly Commentary: Archegos And Ponzi Finance
Why would Archegos employ such a risky strategy – basically reckless leveraging of volatile equities exposure? We can only assume the firm was emboldened by the hyper-loose policy and liquidity backdrop.
Weekly Commentary: Powell On Inflation
The Treasury yield spike runs unabated. Ten-year Treasury yields rose another 10 bps this week to 1.72%, the high since January 23, 2020. The Treasury five-year “breakeven” inflation rate rose to 2.65% in Tuesday trading, the high since July 2008.
Weekly Commentary: The Great 2021 Squeeze Mania
Yet another week for the history books. For posterity: GameStop gained 400%, AMC Entertainment 278%, Express 235%, Siebert Financial 122%, Cel-Sci 75%, Novavax 74%, Vaxart 68%, Fulgent Genetics 60%, Vir Biotech 59%, National Bev 54%, and Fossil 47%.


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