David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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Liquidity Impact On The Stock Market
All three major indices have continued their rallies in June: The S&P 500 is up 2.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.54%, and the Nasdaq composite is up 1.33%. There is one important factor we can’t ignore: Fed liquidity.
Inflation, Deflation, And Capacity Utilization – Part 2
The Dallas Fed has just released its April trimmed mean PCE inflation rate, which is touted as a measure of the overall movement of inflation based upon the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE).
S&P 500 After COVID-19
The S&P 500 Index is widely used as the benchmark for over $9.9 trillion in investments. After losing 35.4% in just a month, the index has rebounded 36.5% from its March 23rd bottom.
Inflation And Capacity Utilization
We know that excess demand serves to bid up prices, but is there reliable information on the supply side, in terms of capacity utilization, that also conveys meaningful information about price pressures as well?
Inflation/Deflation: What Do We Know Now?
The most recent CPI numbers show a decline of 0.8% for the month of April, triggering questions about both a possible deflation and where prices are likely to go in the future.
Risking An Investment War With China
Not having learned the costly lessons of a US-China trade war, the US government has now taken action that risks triggering an investment war with China that could have serious negative effects on the economies of both countries.
Comments On April Job Losses
An appalling employment report, reflecting massive dislocation and misery. An appalling employment report, reflecting massive dislocation and misery. And the real unemployment rate is actually almost 20%, 5 points higher than reported.
Black Swan And SKEW
SKEW has been unbelievably suppressed throughout the COVID-19 sell-off. It briefly touched the 140 level in mid-February and dropped to 110 afterwards.
Market Commentary: Short-Term Vs. Long-Term VIX
As the equity markets rally from the March 24th bottom gains steam, the volatility index has more than halved since its all-time high on March 16. VIX hit the 80 level for the first time during the financial crisis.
The UK Economy Falls Off The Cliff; Brexit Negotiations Resume
The UK’s epidemic may have peaked, but the difficult battle is far from over. As of April 20, the number of cases in the UK was 120,067, compared with 145,742 cases in Germany.
Market Commentary: Narrow Banks
In a move overlooked due to the virus pandemic, on March 25, Judge Andrew L. Carter, Jr. dismissed a case filed by principals of The Narrow Bank against the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. What is The Narrow Bank, and what are the issues it poses?
Understand Leveraged ETFs
Investors’ appetite for leveraged ETFs has been growing rapidly in the past decade. ETF providers upped the initial 2X leverage to 3X to satiate the market demand. But that growth coincided with the longest bull market in history.
Why States Are Not Going To Default From The Coronavirus Fallout
In our opinion this is a short-term shock, although it will likely change some behaviors for the long term that will need to be monitored.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Airlines And COVID19
Since the advent of widespread air travel following World War II, the world has gotten much smaller. These days, it’s just a hop, skip, and a jump for an American to spend a few days in Europe. Or, at least, that’s how it was until a few weeks ago
The VIX Spread
The VIX does not fly above 50 often: There have been only 71 days where the VIX rose above 50 in its history, dating back to 1993.
Coronavirus Infects Bond Yields
The turmoil and volatility in the equity markets is also greatly affecting bond markets, with both taxable and tax-free yields shifting down sharply.
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