Cullen Roche Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Founder at Orcam Financial Group, LLC

Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism. 

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Inflation Debates – YoY Vs MoM
It’s reassuring to see inflation moderating on a monthly basis. But the long-term trend in long-term trimmed mean data is still high so it’s far too early to celebrate.
Three Things I Think I Think - Inflation Has Peaked
The more likely outcome in the coming years is deflation relative to hyperinflation.
Is The USA In A Recession?
While the media has traditionally referred to a recession as 2 quarters of negative GDP the White House and NBER disagree that the recent 2 quarter decline is consistent with a recession.
Three Things I Think I Think – What Is A Recession?
In reality, this economic environment isn’t that great. Whether we quantify that as a technical recession or not doesn’t matter.
Three Things I Think I Think – Some Things Never Die
Myths and paradoxes that persist over time leave a lot of myth-busting yet to do.
The Risk Of Deflation Is Now Greater Than The Risk Of Prolonged High Inflation
While the CPI is a rear-view-looking indicator many forward-looking indicators are starting to tell a very different story – a story of falling demand and falling prices.
Three Things I Think I Think – Flation, Flation, Flation
Here are some things I think I am thinking about:
The Fed Lost Some Money
Since they started raising rates late last year the Fed has $540B of unrealized losses.
Your Balanced Index Still Isn’t Balanced
If you didn’t rebalance your 60/40 then it would grow to 70/30 (or more stocks) over time and this would create an imbalance between your risk profile and your allocation.
The Fed’s Policy Mistake Has Been Made
The Fed made a huge policy mistake and has already overtightened which will not only result in a recession but rising unemployment which is a direct breach of their mandate.
Is This The Return Of The 1970s?
It does look like year over year inflation peaked back in February, but the outlook going forward is more and more muddled as time goes on.
Government Bankruptcy, Misery & The Return Of The 70s
When inflation is high it doesn’t even matter if you have a job because you still feel like you’re going backwards in many ways.
Is The Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status?
A look at reserve currencies and whether the U.S. Dollar is losing its status as the “King Dollar”.
When Things Break
The Fed made a policy mistake by not being more proactive and then overreacting and raising rates very rapidly by essentially pricing in 12 rate hikes in a matter of months.
Is It Time To Panic?
A look at the current market environment and how we can think about navigating it.
3 Minute Money, Inflation & Elon Buys Twitter
People often say that 40 years of falling rates made investors look smart. But was it falling rates that made investors look smart or was it 40 years of disinflation that made investors looks smart?
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