Cullen Roche Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Founder at Orcam Financial Group, LLC

Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism. 

Orcam Financial Group, LLC is a low fee ... more


Latest Posts
1 to 16 of 517 Posts
1 2 3 ... 33
Inflation Debates – YoY Vs MoM
It’s reassuring to see inflation moderating on a monthly basis. But the long-term trend in long-term trimmed mean data is still high so it’s far too early to celebrate.
Three Things I Think I Think - Inflation Has Peaked
The more likely outcome in the coming years is deflation relative to hyperinflation.
Three Things I Think I Think – What Is A Recession?
In reality, this economic environment isn’t that great. Whether we quantify that as a technical recession or not doesn’t matter.
Three Things I Think I Think – Some Things Never Die
Myths and paradoxes that persist over time leave a lot of myth-busting yet to do.
The Risk Of Deflation Is Now Greater Than The Risk Of Prolonged High Inflation
While the CPI is a rear-view-looking indicator many forward-looking indicators are starting to tell a very different story – a story of falling demand and falling prices.
Three Things I Think I Think – Flation, Flation, Flation
Here are some things I think I am thinking about:
The Fed Lost Some Money
Since they started raising rates late last year the Fed has $540B of unrealized losses.
Your Balanced Index Still Isn’t Balanced
If you didn’t rebalance your 60/40 then it would grow to 70/30 (or more stocks) over time and this would create an imbalance between your risk profile and your allocation.
The Fed’s Policy Mistake Has Been Made
The Fed made a huge policy mistake and has already overtightened which will not only result in a recession but rising unemployment which is a direct breach of their mandate.
Government Bankruptcy, Misery & The Return Of The 70s
When inflation is high it doesn’t even matter if you have a job because you still feel like you’re going backwards in many ways.
When Things Break
The Fed made a policy mistake by not being more proactive and then overreacting and raising rates very rapidly by essentially pricing in 12 rate hikes in a matter of months.
3 Minute Money, Inflation & Elon Buys Twitter
People often say that 40 years of falling rates made investors look smart. But was it falling rates that made investors look smart or was it 40 years of disinflation that made investors looks smart?
A Cautionary Note About Home Prices
It was just a year ago that I was here saying residential real estate is not a bubble and that hyperbolic narratives were going too far. Today, I feel bearish and I think new buyers need to be prudent in navigating their home purchasing decisions.
Some Pleasant Arithmetic Behind Falling Prices
Lower prices today mean better returns in the future. Let me explain.
Loans Create Deposits & Deposits Fund Loans (Again)
One of the most valuable lessons from the Financial Crisis was that banks don’t lend their reserves to non-banks in the way that the textbook money multiplier implied.
The Fed Is About To Make A Huge Policy Error
The Fed now wants to swipe a punch bowl that they should have been watering down long ago.
1 to 16 of 517 Posts
1 2 3 ... 33