Cullen Roche | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Founder at Orcam Financial Group, LLC
Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism. Orcam Financial Group, LLC is a low fee financial services firm ...more

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No Or November?
Higher rates for 2024 will mean that we’re about to find out how real those “long and variable lags” are.
Yes, The Labor Market Is Still Not Tight
One of the big lessons from the 2010-2020 environment was that headline payrolls could increase substantially without putting upward pressure on inflation.
Chart Of The Day: Lowered Expectations
In the last few years RGDP has averaged just 2.2%. More recently, GDP Now is expected to come in at 2.8% based on latest estimates. So, is this overheating? Is this even hot?
Weekend Reading – Inflation, Inflation, Inflation
Core PCE came in at 2.78% on Friday. This was the lowest rate of inflation we’ve seen since March of 2021 right before the big spike.
Q&A: Fed Rate Cut Edition
The Fed is concerned about the risk of sticky inflation, but they’re not overreacting because their baseline expectation is still a move towards the low 2% range.
Weekend Reading – Short Selling Is Good!
This week’s retail sales data came in at just 1.5% year over year which would put it near the bottom of the 10 year average. I suspect this is going to be the norm in the coming year.
Inflation Is Still In A Downtrend
Tuesday’s CPI report came in a touch hotter than expected at 3.2% on the headline and 3.8% on the core. Analysts were looking for 3.1% and 3.7%.
How Do Higher Interest Rates Push Inflation Down?
Interest rates are different and have a much more meaningful impact on the economy by impacting banks and credit markets.
Magazine Covers And Market Caps
Super Micro Computer is being added to the S&P 500. This probably won’t impact the overall returns much (if at all), but it raises some interesting questions about the passive decisions of active index funds like the S&P 500.
The Problem With 60/40
60/40 is a wonderful portfolio for anyone with an intermediate or long-term time horizon of 5-15 years.
How To Use Macroeconomic Investing Analysis?
Macroeconomics is the study of aggregate economies or large components of the economy.
The Holy Grail Of Investing
I have some exciting news to announce. I will be publishing a new book later this year that was titled “The Holy Grail of Investing”. I saw “was” because some guy named Tony Robbins just announced that he published a book by the same name today
Is The June Rate Cut Off The Table?
We’re unlikely to get many cuts this year, inflation will move lower, but will be stickier than some expect.
Weekend Reading – Money Isn’t Boring
I have always liked the idea that certain “alternative” assets are insurance. The basic thinking is that stocks and bonds are the core assets in our financial system
The Future Is Amazing (And Lonely)
The idea of a March rate cut is officially dead. Friday’s hot labor report sealed the deal there.
Media: Fed Decision Analysis
The market seemed surprised by the Fed decision and especially the commentary that the Fed would not be cutting rates in March
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