Cullen Roche Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Founder at Orcam Financial Group, LLC

Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism. 

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Three Things I Think I Think – Housing Bubble 2.0, Passive Investing And Hyperinflation
Here are some things I think I am thinking about.
Let’s Talk Some More About Assflation
“Asset inflation” is the idea that the “inflation” that was supposed to show up in consumer prices has been showing up in asset prices like stocks and housing.
Stocks Don’t “Only Go Up”
Life is all about tradeoffs and one of those tradeoffs is recognizing that the stock market not only doesn’t “only go up”, but in fact recognizing that sometimes it must go down in order to make the upside sustainable.
Why Stocks And Bonds Are The Core Of Any Portfolio
Stocks are overvalued by most metrics. They’re very likely to generate lower risk adjusted returns going forward than they have in the past. So what? You could have said that at many points in the last 20 years.
How Worrisome Is The Rise In Interest Rates?
The key to understanding the COVID-19 recession was in understanding that it was an exogenous shock. This made it quite different from your standard recession in the sense that a boom did not cause the bust.
Why Pump & Dumps Are Dangerous
Short and distort schemes are no more harmful than pump and dump schemes. And that’s the frustrating thing about GameStop.
Three Things I Think I Think – YOLO Gambling Is Reckless
 The GameStop saga has been a nearly endless stream of bad narratives. And the one narrative that no one is discussing, the one that actually makes sense is “YOLO gambling is reckless”.
My View On: Short Selling
Every single person pumping the price of Gamestop unsustainably above its intrinsic value is involved in something that is just as harmful as every person who dumps the price of Gamestop unsustainably below its intrinsic value.
Three Things I Think I Think – Civil What?
The most interesting thing in finance these days is companies investing their cash in Bitcoin, literally treating it as their “cash reserve”.
Is All Of Finance Just A Big Network Effect?
There’s probably some truth to the idea that currencies have value because the taxman says so. There’s also truth to the idea that currency is valuable because the network effect makes it valuable.
Is Inflation Really 10%?
When I say I expect higher inflation I am saying that I expect inflation to return to 2019 or higher levels and that the Fed could start to feel pressure to raise rates by 2022. That means 2-3% inflation and rising rates.
Three Things I Think I Think – Happy New Year!
2020 – what a strange year. Awful in many ways and weirdly good in others.
This Man Lost Everything Betting On Stocks
Betting your life’s savings on a single stock is more akin to betting it all on black. In fact, you have better odds of picking the right spin of the roulette wheel than you do picking the next Tesla.
The Psychology Of The Stock Market, In One Image
Successful investing is mostly a battle between our ears and staying grounded when everyone else is losing it on the extremes.
Revisiting S = I + (S – I)
If you view the economy through a two-sector lens then the only way the private sector can have a “net” financial asset is if it comes from outside the private sector. This is where MMT gets sloppy.
The Markets And The Economy Don’t Care About Your Politics
The economy is a massively complex system with outcomes that are so broadly impacted that no single person or entity can influence them single-handedly.
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