Bill Conerly | TalkMarkets | Page 5
Connecting The Dots Between The Economy... And Business!
Dr. Bill Conerly connects the dots between the economy and business decisions. As a consultant, he not only forecasts the economy but also helps business leaders understand how their challenges will change with the evolving economy. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Duke University and was ...more

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Housing Forecast: Lower Prices And Less New Construction
Home prices and rents will decline in the next year, on average, though different parts of the country will experience somewhat differing paths. In the aggregate, housing prices will decline for both homeowners and tenants.
Car Sales Are Down But The Outlook Isn’t So Bad
Car sales remain low, at levels usually seen only in recessions. Rising interest rates scare auto industry investors, but volume will likely gain in coming years, considering supplies and coming price cuts.
Human Resource Management In Recession
The coming economic downturn—which will probably become a recession—will change how human resources policy should be made by small businesses as well as large corporations.
Global Economy Headed Into Recession
The global tightening is likely to slow economic growth around the world and lead to a recession in some countries.
Falling Computer Chip Prices Show Cycles In Capital-Intensive Businesses
Computer chip prices are plummeting. The chip prices illustrate an important economics lesson: Prices in capital-intensive industries are highly volatile.
China Economy Is Weakening
The Chinese economy is faltering. The risk of a real recession looms large, and the most optimistic scenario under current leadership would be slow growth, far slower than in recent decades.
With Higher Mortgage Rates, Fewer Move-Up Home Buyers
Home sales are falling, down 20% in the last year. Big declines occurred among people thinking about moving up to a larger, nicer, or newer house. The simple arithmetic of home payments drives this decline.
Confusing Employment Data: Maybe Jobs Are Above Pre-Pandemic Level
Recent economic data produced conflicting stories: total employment has fully recovered all pandemic losses, but the labor force participation rate has not fully recovered.
Maximizing High-Impact Employees
Some employees keep the business running. Some employees are taking big steps to improve sales, production, or financing. A company needs both kinds.
Meta Sales Decline: Facebook Now An Old Cyclical Business
Facebook and its parent company Meta Platforms have not lost their mojo. Rather, the company has reached a new stage in its lifecycle.
Inflation Near Top, Soon To Drop
The change in my forecast from inflation pessimist to inflation optimist does not come from a failure of the old economic thinking, but rather from the Federal Reserve’s change in diagnosis of the problem.
People Aren’t Moving For Better Opportunities - But Maybe They Should
There are many locations in the U.S. with higher unemployment rates, where people want jobs but don’t want to leave for greener pastures. It’s time, in this tight labor market, to move some of the jobs to where the people are.
Social Changes: Can The Economy And Business Survive?
Nothing happening today will sink the economy or business in general. Changes have to be made, for sure, but nothing happening today warrants massive despair.
Already In Recession? Close, But Not Quite In July 2022
Real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2022, and it looks like it will drop in the second quarter as well. The evidence is that we are not in recession, but certainly close enough to be worried.
Stagflation: Causes And When It Will Come
Stagflation will show early signs late in 2022 and get roaring in 2023. By the end of that year, the risk of recession will be much higher, even though inflation will just be starting to decline. That will be our stagflation.
Unions And Stress - What Businesses Should Learn
Businesses where employees feel fairly treated and adequately compensated are not likely to demand union representation, and that makes the business manager’s job easier and the company more profitable.
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