Bill Conerly Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Connecting The Dots Between The Economy... And Business!

Dr. Bill Conerly connects the dots between the economy and business decisions. As a consultant, he not only forecasts the economy but also helps business leaders understand how their challenges will change with the evolving economy. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Duke University and was ... more

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Maximizing High-Impact Employees
Some employees keep the business running. Some employees are taking big steps to improve sales, production, or financing. A company needs both kinds.
Meta Sales Decline: Facebook Now An Old Cyclical Business
Facebook and its parent company Meta Platforms have not lost their mojo. Rather, the company has reached a new stage in its lifecycle.
Inflation Near Top, Soon To Drop
The change in my forecast from inflation pessimist to inflation optimist does not come from a failure of the old economic thinking, but rather from the Federal Reserve’s change in diagnosis of the problem.
People Aren’t Moving For Better Opportunities - But Maybe They Should
There are many locations in the U.S. with higher unemployment rates, where people want jobs but don’t want to leave for greener pastures. It’s time, in this tight labor market, to move some of the jobs to where the people are.
Social Changes: Can The Economy And Business Survive?
Nothing happening today will sink the economy or business in general. Changes have to be made, for sure, but nothing happening today warrants massive despair.
Already In Recession? Close, But Not Quite In July 2022
Real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2022, and it looks like it will drop in the second quarter as well. The evidence is that we are not in recession, but certainly close enough to be worried.
Stagflation: Causes And When It Will Come
Stagflation will show early signs late in 2022 and get roaring in 2023. By the end of that year, the risk of recession will be much higher, even though inflation will just be starting to decline. That will be our stagflation.
Unions And Stress - What Businesses Should Learn
Businesses where employees feel fairly treated and adequately compensated are not likely to demand union representation, and that makes the business manager’s job easier and the company more profitable.
The Fed Still Doesn’t Get It; Inflation Will Stay High Next Year
Americans will continue to see high inflation for a couple of years, and the Fed will end up pushing interest rates even higher than it currently expects.
Consumer Forecast: More Spending In 2022, Cutbacks In 2024
Consumers in America will keep spending in 2022 despite inflation running higher than wage gains.
Why Mortgage Rates Matter For Cash Buyers Of Houses
Mortgage interest rates have increased by over two and a half percentage points from their low in early 2021 to recent quotations. Higher mortgage rates have historically dampened sales of housing.
Why The Stock Market Drop Does Not Predict Recession
There are plausible reasons for stocks to fall that do not involve recession.
What Business Leaders Should Know About The Economy
A little focus on the business impacts of economic analysis can help an executive or small business owner better understand how the external environment impacts sales and costs.
The Yield Curve Predicts Recession - Sometimes, But Not Today
No foolproof formula predicts the economy in general or recessions in particular, but one of the indicators does a better job than the others: the yield curve.
Drop In U.S. Immigration Further Tightens Labor Market
Foreign immigration into the United States has been unusually low since peaking in 2016, according to Census Bureau data.
Rising Home Prices And Apartment Rents Will End Soon
Rising housing costs—both for houses and apartment rents—are a mystery. This is the story that Agatha Christie might have written if Mrs. Marple were a retired economist.
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