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Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E Slumping Energy Prices Doubled Canada’s Merchandise Trade Deficit In November
Canada’s merchandise trade deficit rose sharply to $2.1 billion in November from just under a $1 billion in each of the two previous months.
E Canada’s Stringent Stress Test Rules Slowed Residential Mortgage Growth
Canada’s new mortgage credit and accessibility rules not only slowed the growth of mortgage credit but also deflated resale home prices.
E Canadian Housing Starts Declined In December
Canada’s housing starts declined in December, and new housing starts in all of 2018 dropped for the first time in five years.
E The Current Oil Price Weakness Is Not Hurting Canada’s Economy As Much As The 2014 Price Slump
Oil and gas production accounts for about 3.5% of Canada’s GDP today compared to 6% in 2014.
E The US Job Market Is Tighter Today Than It Was Just Before 2008-09 Financial Collapse
When it comes to the monthly labor force statistics, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are widely followed indicators that are regularly reported in the media.
E Is The Weak Stock Market Predicting A New Recession?
The stock market has been in a down phase for more than a year now, and volatility has increased over the past three months.
E The US Tax Reduction Was Supposed To Boost Productivity And Investment; It Hasn't
Surely some of this is related to the longer-term shift in the composition of the economy in the direction of services and away from goods production.
E Fears Of A Global Slowdown Are Tied To Worries About China’s Economy
It is widely accepted that global economic growth peaked last year, and that growth this year and next will be somewhat slower.
E Will The US Economy Glide Into A Soft Landing Next Year?
The tightening of financial conditions and the fading of the fiscal stimulus are the key drivers of the US and global growth deceleration expected in 2019 and 2020.
E Canada Job Growth: Slow December, But Q4 Was Okay
Canada’s job growth in December was very unimpressive, but the employment increase in the fourth quarter of last year was quite strong.
E US Jobs Report Reduces Some Of The Gloom
US jobs soar in December, reducing some of the gloom emanating from the financial markets. This suggests that the Fed’s interest rate course will remain on track.
E The Fed’s Interest Rate Outlook For 2019 Is Slightly Less Aggressive
Financial markets seem to believe there will be only one rate hike in 2019, while the Fed projections seem to suggest two rate hikes in 2019, and another rate increase in 2020.
E Unpacking America’s Low Inflation Rate
Despite a record low 3.7% unemployment rate, it is very difficult to detect any evidence of cost-push inflation affecting consumer prices.
E US Wages Bounced Up Sharply In October
The continued strength of payroll job growth, as well as the slowly building wage pressures in recent months, support the scenario of a fourth rate hike this year by the Fed at its December meeting.
E The US Job Market Stayed Tight In All Of 2018
The job market expansion in the fourth quarter of 2018 (based on two months of data) has been very strong.
E The Venezuelan Economy Is In Free Fall; Poverty And Malnutrition Are Soaring
Venezuela is simultaneously experiencing a deep economic, political and humanitarian crisis, which was largely created by the government's own policies.
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