Arthur Donner Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more


Latest Posts
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E Canada’s Current Account Deficit Widened In Q1 - Bad News For C$
Canada’s current account (trade) deficit rose to $17.3 billion in the first quarter, or $69.4 billion when the figures are annualized.
E Booming Economy, Low Interest Rates Have Contributed To Escalation In US Household Debt
The American economy has been generating relatively strong growth in a near fully employed environment. Bank credit expansion has also been quite solid and has supported strong consumer spending.
E Trump’s Tariffs Have Not Reduced The Overall US Trade Deficit
As long as the US Administration pursues large budget deficits in its fully employed economy, the trade will simply shift away from China to America’s other trading partners.
E Housing Weakness Is A Sign Of Approaching Slowdown In US Economy
U.S. new home sales declined 6.9% in April to 673,000 units annualized following a robust 723,000 sales level in March.
E UK Economy Expanded In Q1, But Brexit Fears Cloud Outlook
Unemployment is low, and irony of all ironies, the UK economy gained some momentum in the first quarter of 2019 as government spending edged up and fixed investment rebounded.
E Japan’s Economy Is In A Negative Interest Rate Environment
The Bank of Japan introduced its negative interest rate policy in January 2016 when it announced that it would charge banks 0.1% for parking additional reserves with the BOJ. It's hardly boosted economic growth.
E Japan’s Economy Accelerated In Q1, Leaving Behind A Rocky Growth Pattern
Japan’s economy has been cooling since the beginning of 2018, following a strong expansion in 2017.
E The Euro Area Economy Bounced Back In 1Q19 From A Near Recession In 2H18
The annual inflation rate (y/y) in the Euro Area rose to 1.7% in April 2019 from 1.4% in the previous month.
E Major Central Banks Assets Are Still Shrinking
And, the Fed signals patience on any interest rate changes.
E Canadian Economy Grew Modestly In Q1;Exports A Major Drag On Growth
Along with slow growth, real GDP barely expanded at a 0.4% annual rate in Q1. In contrast, the American economy expanded at a robust 3.2% pace in the first quarter.
E US Economic Growth Will Downshift This Year
Although US real GDP rebounded upward in the first quarter (3.2% at an annual rate), business investment, housing expenditures, and imports were all unusually weak.
E US Investment Intentions Are Weak
Trump’s trade war with China will slow the US economy.
E The Volume Of World Trade Has Declined Over Two Consecutive Quarters
The decline in world trade explains why global growth projections are so soft, and also underscores why forecasts of world growth for this year and next seems to be continuously revised lower.
E The World Economy Is Entering A Perilously Slower Growth Phase
On balance, a slower growth outlook for this year was in the cards as the fiscal stimulus fades and as Trump’s tariffs constrain business investment and weaken manufacturing production.
E The Trade Conflict Is Already Showing Up In The Global Macro Economic Statistics
There is a tight correlation between global manufacturing and global GDP growth. Recently these indicators have been highlighting slower international growth ahead.
E Canada’s Tough Mortgage Rules Have Contributed To Housing Starts Lag
Canada’s housing sector has been in a funk over the past six months. Two provinces, BC and Ontario, introduced legislation to deter foreign investment in Canadian housing.
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