Adem Tumerkan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Editor-In-Chief at Palisade Research
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My name is Adem Tumerkan and I am the Editor-in-Chief of Palisade Research. 

I'm 26 years old. Born contrarian and skeptic. I like the mining sector but I'm really a contrarian/value investor that ... more

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Blowing Up: The Italian Debt Crisis, The Experts That Missed It – And What’s Next
We know that when bond yields go up, the bond prices go down. And whoever owns all these depreciating bonds – mostly owned by banks – will suffer... Now the real question is: what’s the contagion from this Italian debt crisis?
Drowning In Debt: Delinquencies Are Surging And It’s Only Getting Worse
After the shocking release of used car prices collapsing most since 2008, and subprime auto loan delinquencies at a 22 year high - credit card delinquencies are now sharply ticking higher. What's going on?
The Bond Market Is Calling The Fed’s Bluff – Things Aren’t Looking Good
The FOMC's recent minutes explain why the yield curve continues towards flattening - then soon afterwards - inverting. Even with inflation running hot, Fed rate hikes, and balance sheet unwinding - the trend wont break.
Subprime Chaos: The Auto Bubble Is Bursting And It’s Worse Than 2008
After years of cheap debt, the Fed's rate hikes are making auto loans difficult to service. Sound familiar to mortgages in 2008?
Don’t Be Fooled By The Dollar’s Recent Rise – It’s Still Going Down Much More
The U.S. Dollar has been on a tear over the last few weeks. And many mainstream pundits are calling for the renewal of a dollar bull market.
Beware: These 3 Important Indicators Are Signaling Economic Problems Ahead
After studying these three important - yet little used- indicators. I expect earnings to underperform over the next 12 months. This narrative throws cold water in the face of the mainstream's 'growth' story.
Think The Economy Is Okay? Wait Until You See These 3 Charts
Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in Q4 2015, interest payments on the United States national debt has soared to 38%. Credit Card delinquencies are at levels not seen since 2008. And C&I loans have stalled out - what's next?
E Flattening Yield Problem & Death By Low Volatility
We are definitely approaching a "Minsky Moment" after years of cheap debt and low rates. Markets are becoming more expensive and illiquid. Especially if the Fed attempts to unwind its bloated balance sheet. Time to tail-hedge?
E The Bond Market Is Calling The Fed's Bluff
Tuesday the spread between the 5 year and 30 yields collapsed within 96 bips, less than 1%, of each other, for the first time since December 2007. Softening inflation, collapsing credit growth, and inverting yield curves are signaling a recession.
E Odds Rising For Inverting Yields, Falling Stocks & Recession
After yesterday's CPI miss and retail sales dump, the Fed not only hiked but discussed unwinding their balance sheet. What did bonds do? Yields fell. When will stocks?
E Dismal Data & Inverting Yields Signal A Recession
It's the Bond Market vs. The Fed. Bond markets signal recession but the Fed signals growth. The recent data is looking poor for 2017. The year-over-year loans for real estate, auto and commercial are all trending far lower.
E Consumer Credit Flops And Why This Is A Big Problem
Yesterday the Fed released the consumer credit growth data for April missing economists expectations by 50% and represents the slowest growth in consumer credit since 2011. With GDP dependent on consumption, are we looking at an economic slowdown?
E What Will It Take To Turn This Bull Market Euphoria?
Market prices are the aggregate of investor opinions. And since 2008, the crowd has put all its faith in Central Bank subsidies. It's like the "Greenspan Put" on steroids. So what will it take to really turn things?
What Is Happening In Credit Markets Is Signaling An Upcoming Recession
Does falling loan originations cause an economic slowdown, or is it that an economic slowdown causes falling loan originations? This is the classic "Chicken or the Egg" dilemma.
E Why Trump Is Taking The Dollar Down And How To Profit From It
Donald Trump has touted 4% growth for the U.S. But will tax cuts, de-regulation, tariffs and a stimulus be enough? No. Foresight offers huge profits to those contrarian enough. .
E Incoming Choppers: Inflation, Not Deflation, Will Surprise You
if it weren't for the huge drop in oil prices since 2014 and the massive appreciation in USD Index (aka US dollar), what would Headline CPI be? The US is bracing for a recession sooner than later.
1 to 16 of 46 Posts
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