Tony Hayes CFA | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Analyst at Ashton Consultancy Inc.
Phone: 905-468-0130
Contributor's Links: TonyHayesBlog.com
Tony is an all-round investment professional with a broad range of credentials, skills, contacts and work experience in Canada, England, the United States and Australia. His career spanning five decades has been in the investment and mining industries as a corporate director, president, executive ...more

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Things Are Different Post Lehman, Even If They Shouldn't Be
On an after-tax basis the DJII yields more than any high grade U.S. debt instrument. Very different from the years before Lehman. The DJII is selling at a huge discount to its value and represents a better investment opportunity than in March 2009.
DJII Technical Breakout To 21,000 Imminent
The DJII has completed the "W" shaped double bottom formation that was anticipated in the previous blog post. The market is nudging the resistance line at the 17.600 level. Next major technical target 21.000
Technicians May Soon Be Forecasting DJII At 21,000
Fundamental analysis using the dividend-discount model has long pointed to a higher DJII price. Technicians may soon be agreeing.
Negative Interest Rates Are Insane
Move toward Negative interest rates pushes up dividend-discount value of DJII towards infinity.
Fed Moves To Quantitative Contraction, QC Did Anyone Notice?
US Monetary Base contracts in December. This is serious tightening by the Fed with a much greater impact than the 0.25% hike in the Funds rate. This should lead to a higher U.S. dollar and steady long term rates.. Pressure on the DJII price is up.
How A Decimal Point Can Change The Reaction To A Story From "So What?" To "OMG !"
Pimco sells US Treasuries as bankers expect 10 year T Bond yields to rise from 1.95% to 2.40%. According to Bloomberg this would result in only a 2% loss. In reality the loss would be around 20%.
Here We Go Again! Buy The DJII
US Treasury Rates are low, but much higher than most comparable Euro-zone and Japanese rates. US rates and a strong dollar are very attractive to foreign investors. Hence, US rates to fall further and push the dividend-discount value of the DJII even higher.
Santa Is Offering DJII At Deep Discount
The dividend discount value of the DJII is at a record level. Standing at almost twice the price of the DJII it suggests that the sell-off of the past 6 days is overdone and a sharp rebound is in the offing.
Einstein Not Newton More Helpful To Understand Equity Markets
The DJII remains grossly under-priced relative to its value.
Dividend-Discount Values & Prices: Abstract Of Hayes Quarterly Blog
The price of the DJII continues to move toward equilibrium with its dividend-discount value of almost 30,000 as the return of the Santa Claus rally approaches. This should speed up the ascent of the market.
Market Panic Selling Overdone - "Buy And Take No Prisoners"
Dividend discount value of DJII near a record high as investors panic.
Dividend Discount Values & Market Prices
Since March 2009 the U.S. economy has struggled to be anemic as economists, pundits and the media have worried themselves silly about every groan, blip and burp emanating from the entrails of every government economic pronouncement.
In The Age Of The Internet Media, Opinions About The Future Change As Quickly As Share Prices.
I love the mass media, they are such chameleons, changing colour with the ebb and flow of stock prices. A bearish story published at 9.15 am today was totally revamped by 11.15 am. One wonders what might happen by the closing bell.
FED Pushes On Proverbial String But Commercial Banks Unwilling Or Unable To Attract Borrowers
The U.S. monetary base has increased 400% in less than 6 years, from $0.8 trillion in 2008 to almost $4 trillion today. Meanwhile commercial banks have, for the first time, built up huge surplus reserves of $2.6 trillion at the FED.
Dividend Discount Value Of DJII
In order to know where the DJII is going, it is of the utmost importance to know where the DJII is and, furthermore that value and price are not always the same.
Has Anybody Noticed The Huge Level Of Excess Bank Reserves Held At The FED ?
The US monetary base has grown 5 fold in 5 years from $0.8 trillion in 2008 to $4 trillion today. Considering that it took 232 years to reach $0.8 trillion and 5 years to grow 5 times, the supply of money may be more than adequate for the remainder of the millennium.
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