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Ok December Retail Sales: 2.2% Q4 GDP Growth Incoming
The December retail sales report can either look very strong or very weak depending on the time horizon you use. Ultimately, this was an ok report. It signals the economy kept growing and shouldn’t have a major impact on Q4 GDP growth estimates.
The Rally That Never Ends
This has been an amazing run for stocks, but the lack of volatility hasn’t exceeded 2018 yet. The S&P 500 hasn’t risen or declined 1% or more in 66 trading days.
Target Has A Bad Holiday Shopping Season
Target reported terrible holiday sales growth. Let’s see if that’s a bad sign for the retail sales report. We only need to wait a day from Target’s sales release until the report.
Fed Set To Ignore Higher Headline Inflation
December CPI report was in line with estimates on a yearly basis but missed them on a monthly basis. Headline inflation continued climbing higher because of energy.
Is Demand Weak Or Is The Labor Market Full?
There are 2 ways to look at the labor market. You can say current low job growth is caused by cyclical weakness. Or you can say this is a result of the labor market getting fuller. Both arguments have truth to them.
Another Solid Jobs Report
Manufacturing job creation was weak. Markit manufacturing report is more accurate which is good news because it has recently been much more positive than the ISM reading.
Another Record High As Overbought Market Breaks An Indicator
Predictions for a correction in January have proven to be wrong. Especially so far as the market rallied again on Thursday to a new record high. S&P 500 has rallied on each of the past 4 days prior to the non-farm payrolls report.
19 Year High In Consumer Comfort
CEO and consumer confidence improved. Consumer confidence is at a multi-cycle high, while CEO confidence is just bouncing off its 10-year low.
Strongest Small Business Job Creation Since January 2019
December private-sector ADP jobs report was very strong compared to its recent readings and the November reading was revised up significantly.
Weaker Motor Vehicles Sales & Improved Services PMIs
December motor vehicle sales report put a dent in any thesis that December retail sales growth will be strong. Motor vehicles and parts category has the highest weighting in the retail sales report.
Stocks Reverse Course As Geopolitical Concerns Fade
S&P 500 rallied again on Monday even though almost all analysts are calling for 2020 to be a below average year for returns.
Housing Price Growth Bottoms & Residential Construction Increases
Based on recent reports, it seems like yearly home price growth is bottoming. It is being helped by low rates and easy comps.
Low Wage Workers To Get A Pay Hike
Wage growth for low income workers should be strong in 2020 partially because of the minimum wage hikes. Jobless claims were low again in the latest report.
Weak ISM PMI, Geopolitical News, & Fed Minutes Hurt Stocks
It’s not surprising stocks fell on Friday. The market was very overbought and the airstrike that killed Soleimani gave investors an excuse to take profits. Also, the Fed Minutes were hawkish. Plus, the ISM manufacturing PMI missed estimates.
Manufacturing Sector Had A Weaker December
Even though America’s PMI fell, it was the 3rd best. Europe’s really lagged even though it has a relatively strong surprise index.
2020 Predictions: No Rate Cuts, No Recession, Sell Apple, Buy Energy
The stock market has been on a rampage in the past few weeks. It has been due for a correction. Personally, I expect the start of 2020 to be volatile and see 3% to 5% gains in 2020.
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