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Economic Slowdown Signaled By Disastrous Flash May PMI Reading
This PMI is down sharply from April. It was a big shock for me and many other investors. It’s consistent with the theme that economic reports have been weak.
Homeownership Rate 23 Points Lower For Millennials
The most popular age range for first time home buyers is the low 30s. Student loan debt is a big factor preventing millennials from being able to afford mortgage payments. The buyer’s debt to income ratio needs to be low enough to satisfy lenders.
Weak Economic Reports Almost Catalyzes The First 5% Correction Of 2019
The market is now at the low end of its recent range. There still hasn’t been a 5% decline this year, but that will likely change shortly. The headlines blamed the decline on trade fears, but I think the weak PMI caused the selloff.
Tariffs Hurt Retail Sales And Existing Home Sales Miss Estimates
We won’t see a decline in inflation because new tariffs are about to kick in. Oxford Economics believes that because economic growth will be hurt by the tariffs, there won’t be a net effect on inflation.
Stocks Rallied Despite Lack Of Progress On Trade War
The stock market can have big rallies during this correction phase where most economic reports are weak and there isn’t a trade deal with China. However, the market won’t reach a new record high until the data changes or there is a trade deal.
U.S. Economy Inching Closer To A Recession?
Chicago Fed National Activity index fell from 0.05 to -0.45 in April. The March reading was revised sharply higher from -0.15.
Leading Indicators Aren’t Optimistic
This Friday was the one time per month we get an update on both the ECRI leading index and the Conference Board leading index.
Trade Fears - Standoffish China Sent Stocks Lower
S&P 500 can’t hit a new record high until there is a trade deal or economic reports improve.
Housing Market Index Strong & Industrial Production Weak
May Home Price index showed further improvement. Industrial production report was weak like the retail sales report.
Jobless Claims Decrease As Stocks Rallied Again
The decline in jobless claims is a positive for the stock market in the midst of mostly weak economic reports which have the GDP Nowcast only expecting 1.2% growth in Q2.
Cass Freight Index Craters: Economic Slowdown Worsens
April Cass Freight report was terrible as shipment growth was -3.2%. This was the 5th straight month growth was negative.
Weak Economic Reports Didn’t Stop The Market From Rallying
S&P 500 increased 0.58% on Wednesday which was surprising because retail sales and industrial production missed estimates. Economic growth could end up being below 2% in Q2. That doesn’t correlate with a rising stock market.
Capitulation - Stock Market Reached On Monday
The Monday selloff was a washout moment where investors capitulated and sold everything. Stocks rallying on Tuesday provides a small bit of verification to this thesis.
Global Trade War - What It Would Do To The Economy
A global trade war would hurt American GDP by 2.1%, Chinese GDP by 2.5%, and global GDP by 1.7%. American GDP growth would assuredly be negative in 2020 and the global economy would be in a deep recession.
Market Correction Catalyzed By Trade Worries
If negotiations head in the right direction, stocks could rise 3% in a couple of days or even a few hours. If nothing happens, I think stocks will form a bottom, but won’t spike to new highs.
Trade War Could Cause A Global Recession
International trade report matters much more than usual because of the ongoing trade negotiations with China. In April, China had a $21.01 billion surplus with America which was more than its overall surplus.
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