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Redbook Same Store Sales Growth The Worst Since July 2018
Bears have recently attacked the Redbook same-store growth report by stating discount sales growth has been much higher than department store sales growth. That differential has widened before the past 2 recessions.
Consumers Most Optimistic On Real Income Growth In 2 Decades
Overall consumer confidence index increased 3% monthly and fell 2.6% yearly. The current economic conditions index rose from 108.5 to 113.4.
Fed Minutes Imply That Fed Is At Market’s Will
Despite the mixed signals given from the Minutes, stocks rallied. Fed expressed worries about the market getting ahead of itself. Ironically, the market got further ahead of itself on Wednesday.
Possibilities Of A US China Trade Deal Seem Grim
News events on Tuesday have made the lead up to the trade negotiations almost as bad as it can be. Optimism about a deal has waned considerably.
Q4 Earnings Estimates Fell Sharply
Cyclical weakness is driving declines in earnings estimates and weakness in hard data. Soft data is worse than hard data because of the trade war.
Non-Supervisory Production Workers See Relatively Strong Wage Growth
The stock market soared on the Goldilocks jobs report on Friday. Investors were curious about how the market would react to weakness. Apparently, the market is fine with slowing payrolls growth.
Private Sector Job Creation Misses Estimates Stoking Recession Fears
Recession fears are back on the table with the latest weak ISM manufacturing PMI.
Residential Construction Improves: Housing Set To Have A Great Q4
The Redbook report showed solid retail sales growth. Construction report was weak, but monthly residential construction improved.
Consumption Growth Disappoints, Sending Q3 GDP Growth Estimates Lower
In August, real disposable personal income growth was solid, but real consumption growth weakened.
Pending Home Sales Increase In August
Pending home sales signal more positive growth coming from new home sales over the next few months. We could be looking at above 2% GDP growth in Q4 if real residential investment growth accelerates.
New Home Sales Strike Fear In The Hearts Of The Bears
New home sales report was fantastic again and purchase applications growth was solid.
Tariff Worries Cause Consumers To Become Less Optimistic
The trade war hurt consumer confidence, didn’t impact the Redbook same-store sales reading, and may have impacted the Richmond Fed report.
SPX Hovers Near 3,000 For 12 Days
U.S. markets are awaiting the trade meetings in early October and Q3 earnings season which starts in the middle of the month.
U.S. Economy Surprising To The Upside?
We either need to see an interim trade deal or a great Q3 earnings season to see stocks rally another 5%. Trade negotiations and earnings season start next month. October will be very interesting for markets.
Great Housing Starts & Permits: No Recession Soon
August leading indicators report showed 0% monthly growth which met estimates. July reading was revised down 0.1% to 0.4% growth. It’s probably a win that this indicator is still at its record high since stocks fell in August.
Hiring Growth Improves In July
Both the MBA and JOLTS reports were strong. However, the big difference between the services and manufacturing PMIs is disconcerting.
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