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Stocks Ignore Negative Economic & Earnings Results
S&P 500 was down 0.27% on Thursday, but that should be considered an amazing performance when context is given.
Small Business Sentiment Fell For 5th Straight Month
The January small business optimism report wasn’t great. Going from great to good is terrible in the rate of change terms.
Global Central Banks Cut Rates: Fed In A Mid-Cycle Pause
Some investors believe the economy couldn’t possibly be mid-cycle because the expansion is already almost the longest since the 1800s.
Retail Investors Have Come Back To The Stock Market
Retail investors increased their allocation to stocks to 71% and decreased their cash position to 13%.
Consumers - 69% Expect To Be Better Off Financially Next Year
So far, stocks are ahead of schedule. It seems like there will be at least a modest pullback in the next few weeks. At worst, there will be a 2nd leg down.
Twitter Stock Fell, But The Company Is Making Smart Changes
Twitter has 126 million daily active users. 99 million of those are international users and 27 million are American users. Year over year growth was 9% which was the same as last quarter. Growth was 12% in Q4 2017 which shows us growth is slowing.
Jobless Claims Worry Some Investors
Jobless claims fell from 253,000 to 234,000. Some view this as a negative report because it missed expectations for 223,000.
Recession - 23.6% Chance Within Next Year
NY Fed’s recession indicator uses the treasury spread to forecast the odds of a recession in the next 12 months. It shows there’s a 23.6% chance of a recession by January 2020.
Wage Growth Finally Beats Rent Growth
Wage growth is important because, at this point in the cycle with the labor market tightening and inflation modest, workers have a chance to get real pay increases.
January 2019 Jobs Report Was Great
Once again, the jobs report beat estimates by about double. The January report showed there were 304,000 jobs created. This beat estimates for 158,000.
Boeing And Microsoft Earnings Reviews
Boeing and Microsoft had different earnings reports - 0ne beat estimates easily and one missed on revenue. However, they are both long term winners that should outperform the S&P 500.
S&P 500 Had Its Best January Since 1987
The S&P 500 was up 0.86% on Thursday which pushed the market to a new high. It closed up 7.87% for the month.
Home Price Growth Was The Lowest Since January 2015
It’s clear that if the government shuts down on February 15th again, the economic data will all be messed up. Delayed data that was supposed to come out at a later date will be delayed again.
Consumer Sentiment Weakens In January
Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board slipped in January. The worst case scenario for any index in the rate of change terms is for it to come off of cycle highs.
Government Shutdown To Hurt Q1 GDP Growth By 0.4%
The CBO released the potential effects from the shutdown on past and future GDP growth. Negative impact on Q4 GDP growth will be 0.2% and the negative impact on Q1 will be 0.4%.
S&P 500 On Pace To Increase Over 100% In 2019
2019 has been a spectacular year for stocks as the S&P 500 is up 6.3%. If the stock market were to go up 6.3% every month it would be up 108% for the year. We know that’s almost impossible.
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