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COVID-19 Resurgence Reverses Economic Recovery
This economy is slowing because of the increase in COVID-19 cases. And the stock market is ignoring this unless you think the 7% correction priced this in.
Real Time Economic Data Stops Improving
Inflation expectations spiked to 6.7% which is a 9 year high. This is shocking because inflation is barely positive. We don’t expect these expectations to stay this high.
Economy Expected To Have Added 3.5 Million Jobs In June
Thursday is a big day for labor data. We are getting the BLS monthly labor report and weekly jobless claims. It will be curious as to how the recent spike in COVID-19 cases impacts jobless claims.
Consumer Confidence Follows COVID-19 Crisis
Final June consumer sentiment reading was 78.1 which was slightly below the preliminary reading of 78.9. It’s tough to tell if that small decline at the end of the month matters.
Another Bad Jobless Claims Report
Initial claims reading showed its 2nd straight week of a very small decrease. At this rate, it will take many months just to get below the previous record high let alone back to normal. COVID-19 is still a problem in a few states.
Will COVID-19 Stall The Recovery?
COVID-19 is in full force in a few states. COVID-19 will hurt these states’ economies regardless of whether the economy officially shuts down.
Texas In Trouble Due To Covid-19?
Markit is projecting the U.S. economy to drop over 8% in 2020. Remember, the Fed projected a 6.5% decline in GDP this year at its latest meeting this June.
Job Postings Are Down 29% Yearly - Why That’s A Good Thing
We can expect the labor report to be better than the one in May, but not as spectacular as most initially thought it would be.
COVID-19 To Start Hurting The Stock Market
Coronavirus is becoming a bigger issue as hospitalizations are spiking in Texas and Arizona. This isn’t going to cause another 34% decline, but it should cause stocks to correct further.
Nasdaq 100 At An Extreme Level
The NAAIM exposure index spiked from 77.48 which is a modestly high reading to 88.25 which is almost extreme. It’s slightly below the peak of 91.6 two weeks ago which is about in line with the stock market which is below its recent high.
Stocks Ignore Terrible Jobless Claims Report
The stock market is assuming the government will pass another fiscal stimulus. One should come because this is an election year. If nothing is passed and the economy gets worse, it would be a disaster heading into November.
QE Will Never Go Away
Each day that goes by brings us closer to understanding this recession. At the current pace, this will be the quickest recession ever, but one of the deepest.
Euphoria Is Back Again! Stocks Are Very Expensive
This market is incredible. Just after we had a big 5.9% decline on Thursday, the market is back to its euphoric ways.
Deep Dive Into Latest Consumer Data
Restaurants and bars are still off 40.9%. Furniture and home furniture stores had a massive improvement as they went from down 60% to only down 23.8%.
Best Surprise Reading Ever
The Citi economic surprise index hit a record high. This indicator goes back to 2003, so that’s really impressive.
Consumer Spending Growth Improves - Fastest Recovery Ever?
Consumer spending growth using Chase consumer cards improved this past week. That’s a boon to the economy and it means the temporary job losers are getting their jobs back.
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