Steven Saville | TalkMarkets | Page 6
Contributor's Links: The Speculative Investor
I graduated from the University of Western Australia in 1984 with a degree in electronic engineering and from 1984 until 1998 worked in the commercial construction industry as an engineer, a project manager and an operations manager. I began investing in the stock market 2 months prior to ...more

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Revisiting The Fed’s Potential Game-Changer
Over the past four months, the Fed has added about $400B to its balance sheet. To put this into perspective, since early September the Fed has expanded its balance sheet at an annualized rate of around 30%.
Accelerating Monetary Inflation
Over the past three months the year-over-year rate of growth in US True Money Supply (TMS), a.k.a. the US monetary inflation rate, has jumped from a 12-year low of 1.5% to a 2.5-year high of 6.1%.
Gold Is Not A Hedge Against “CPI Inflation”
Like old soldiers, old beliefs never die. In the financial world, one of the many old beliefs that clings to life despite a pile of conflicting evidence is the one about gold being primarily a hedge against, or a play on, so-called “CPI inflation”.
What’s Required For A Gold Bull Market?
During a gold bull market the “true fundamentals”, as indicated by our Gold True Fundamentals Model (GTFM), will be bullish most of the time.
Lower Interest Rates Lead To Slower Growth
The average central banker is like the average politician. They both tend to focus on the direct and/or short-term effects and ignore the indirect and/or long-term effects of policies. I
Gold And The 'Real' Interest Rate Revisited
The current situation is that neither sentiment nor fundamentals are conducive to substantial strength in the gold price.
Gold And Inflation Expectations Revisited
If you think that the recent inflation-expectations bounce is the start of a trend then you should be looking for opportunities to increase your exposure to commodities such as oil and copper, not gold.
Banks Versus Gold, Part 2
Relative weakness in the banking sector is considered to be bullish for gold and bearish for general equities.
A Potential Game-Changer From The Fed
It’s possible that the Fed’s new asset monetization program will extend the current cycle (prolong the equity bull market) and lead to more “price inflation” than earlier programs.
Monetary Inflation And The Next Crisis
The latest TMS growth figure for the US is very close to the 20-year low registered in September-2006.
The Coming Great Inflation
The events of the past 10 years have fostered the belief that central banks can create a virtually unlimited amount of money without significant adverse consequences for the purchasing power of money.
Banks Versus Gold
One of the past month’s interesting stock-market developments was the strength of the banking sector in both nominal terms and relative to the broad market.
Gold And The ‘Real’ Interest Rate
It’s well known that the US$ gold price often trends in the opposite direction to the US real interest rate.
The Market Leads The Fed… Sort Of
The relationship between short-term market interest rates and the interest rates set by the Fed is a complicated one.
Gold And Freight Rates Point To An Industrial Metals Rally
Gold tends to lead the industrial metals sector at intermediate-term bottoms, that is, the US$ gold price tends to make an intermediate-term bottom and commence a multi-quarter upward trend in advance of the Industrial Metals Index (GYX).
Why A Euro Collapse Will Precede A US$ Collapse
The euro may well gain in value relative to the US$ over the next 12 months, but three differences between the monetary systems of the US and the euro-zone guarantee that the euro will collapse before the US$ collapses.
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