Steven Saville Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Contributor's Links: The Speculative Investor

I graduated from the University of Western Australia in 1984 with a degree in electronic engineering and from 1984 until 1998 worked in the commercial construction industry as an engineer, a project manager and an operations manager. 

I began investing in the stock market 2 ... more

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There Will Be A ‘V’ Recovery…Sort Of
The rebound from the H1-2020 plunge into recession probably will look like a ‘V’, at least initially.
The Monetary Inflation Moonshot
At around this time last month we noted that the Fed had pushed the year-over-year rate of growth in US True Money Supply (TMS)*, also known as the US monetary inflation rate, to a multi-year high of 11.3%.
The Status Of Gold’s “True Fundamentals”
As long as the fundamentals remains supportive, any short-term decline in the gold price should be ‘corrective’, that is, it should be within the context of a multi-year upward trend.
De Facto MMT
One significant difference between the Fed’s recent actions and the QE of 2008-2014 is that for some of its new money and credit creation the Fed is bypassing the PDs.
The COVID-19 Trade-Off
The trade-off is associated with the COVID-19 threat and has been portrayed as being between lives and money, but the correct way to view the trade-off is between lives today and lives in the future.
A Critical Juncture For The Gold Sector
The 1980s comparison predicted the big moves that have occurred since May of last year, including the Q1-2020 crash.
MMT Is Now A Reality
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which isn’t modern and isn’t a theory (in the true meaning of the word), is now being put into practice in many countries, including the US. What’s happening isn’t being called MMT, but that’s what it is.
The Inflation Expectations Crash And What It Portends
Inflation expectations have crashed along with the stock market and the oil price.
A Strangely Successful Gold Stock Model
History informs us that after a crash comes a rebound and after a rebound there is usually a test of the crash low.
Gold Versus Silver
Last July the gold/silver ratio came within 10% of its 50-year high, which was reached in 1991, and within 15% of its multi-century high, which was reached in the early 1940s.
The Creeping Nationalisation Of Markets
Central banks are a long way from being short of ammunition because there effectively is no limit to the amount of money they can create.
A Test For China’s Propaganda Machine
The main purpose of the GDP growth numbers and most other economic statistics reported by China’s government is to tell the story that the central committee of the Communist Party wants to tell.
Sometimes It Actually Is Different
As a result of unprecedented manipulation of money and interest rates, it’s possible that some of the investing/speculating strategies that worked reliably in the past will not work for the foreseeable future.
Does A Correction Need A Fundamental Catalyst?
Given the extent to which the US stock market is stretched in both momentum and sentiment terms, there doesn’t have to be a news-related catalyst for a significant correction.
Do Gold Mining Stocks Lead Gold?
There are plenty of examples of gold mining stocks leading the bullion price at a turning point from down to up or up to down, but there are at least as many examples of gold mining stocks lagging the bullion at a turning point.
Revisiting The Fed’s Potential Game-Changer
Over the past four months, the Fed has added about $400B to its balance sheet. To put this into perspective, since early September the Fed has expanded its balance sheet at an annualized rate of around 30%.
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