Steven Saville Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Contributor's Links: The Speculative Investor

I graduated from the University of Western Australia in 1984 with a degree in electronic engineering and from 1984 until 1998 worked in the commercial construction industry as an engineer, a project manager and an operations manager. 

I began investing in the stock market 2 ... more

Articles

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Gold And The ‘Real’ Interest Rate
It’s well known that the US$ gold price often trends in the opposite direction to the US real interest rate.
The Market Leads The Fed… Sort Of
The relationship between short-term market interest rates and the interest rates set by the Fed is a complicated one.
Gold And Freight Rates Point To An Industrial Metals Rally
Gold tends to lead the industrial metals sector at intermediate-term bottoms, that is, the US$ gold price tends to make an intermediate-term bottom and commence a multi-quarter upward trend in advance of the Industrial Metals Index (GYX).
Why A Euro Collapse Will Precede A US$ Collapse
The euro may well gain in value relative to the US$ over the next 12 months, but three differences between the monetary systems of the US and the euro-zone guarantee that the euro will collapse before the US$ collapses.
Interest Rates And The Stock Market
There is no simple relationship between interest rates and the stock market. In particular, a lower interest rate doesn’t necessarily lead to a higher stock market and a higher interest rate doesn’t necessarily lead to a lower stock market.
The Coming T-Bond Decline
The gold/commodity ratio and the T-Bond are strongly correlated over the long term. They also tend to be well correlated over shorter timeframes, but significant short-term divergences sometimes occur.
Gold And Inflation Expectations
Gold tends to perform well relative to commodities in general when inflation expectations are falling.
US Monetary Inflation With And Without The Fed
The way that most new money was created over the past 10 years was different to how it was created during earlier cycles.
The "True Fundamentals" Are Still In Gold’s Favor
After spending almost all of 2018 in bearish territory, gold’s true fundamentals have spent all of this year to date in bullish territory.
Mao Versus Deng Versus Xi
Deng’s view that having a productive economy was more important than adhering rigidly to theories that were failing in practice brought him into conflict with Mao Tse Tung.
The Old Keynesian Guidelines Have Been Forgotten
Keynesian economic theory is useless if the aim is to understand how the world of human production and consumption works, but it is useful when attempting to figure out the policies that will be implemented in the future.
Monetary Inflation Roundup
The G2 (US plus euro-zone) monetary inflation rate dropped to a 10-year low in March-2019 and has now spent 19 months below the boom-bust threshold of 6%.
What Is GLD’s Gold Inventory Telling Us?
An increase in the amount of gold bullion held by GLD​ (the SPDR Gold Shares) and other bullion ETFs does not cause the gold price to rise.
The Pace Of US Money-Supply Growth Slows To A Crawl. Is This A Major Problem For The Stock Market?
A popular view is that the Fed has given up on monetary tightening and as a result the stock market should continue to trend upward over the months ahead. This view is based on flawed reasoning.
The Gold/Commodity Ratio Makes Another T-Bond Forecast
The gold/commodity (g/c) ratio and the T-Bond price tend to move in the same direction.
Money Supply Is Only Part Of The Monetary Story
The Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) holds that the change in money Purchasing Power (PP) is proportional to the change in the Money Supply (MS). It’s a bad theory because it doesn’t reflect reality.
1 to 16 of 301 Posts
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