The main issue is that the Fed is showing more signs of slowing down their rate rise. This will last until they can't do it anymore because of inflation which may cause a economic decline if the trade war is the main cause for increased inflationary pressure.

If we get strong inflation it is liable to come about due to raw material and imports rather than pay inflation making it a very bad form of inflation. Not all inflation is equal.

The new paradigm they brought into play only prolongs the cycles and thus we have a very long cycle with very slow recovery. The issue is, can we deal with the negative which seems to be very abrupt steep declines when the cycle ends? We will see, however, I suspect this cycle still has a while to go. After all, they can slip things back to zirp which they will probably do at the first sign of trouble. If that eventually fails, then we are is big trouble.

Housing prices are merely pulling back from over extended positions mainly caused by speculative investing by foreign money. China's drop in real estate is already noticeable in California and is a welcome sight even though housing remains absurdly priced thanks to the tech sector.

Oil prices will likely rise through summer and fall off a bit afterwards. I don't see any major divergence from this mostly seasonal action.

Fortunately earning have been keeping the stock market up despite the one offs like Netflix and Facebook. As long as this continues I don't see any major meltdown, however, other issues are keeping a cap on the market moving significantly higher. That said, they are talked about a lot but are not the main drivers of the market and shouldn't be.

If oil rises when the dollar is strong then the real worry is if the dollar weakens which can make oil and inflation become a real problem really fast. This is why we have oil reserves, should not run massive deficits, and engage in overly loose monetary policy like QE.

LOL I've been writing about AAA there is no need for Facebook and Microsoft turns off and on. Microsoft's growth is mostly through forcing people to buy their OS and Office on a monthly basis. It's growth will not last long term unless it figures out something new to sell.

Rotation is good, especially when the leaders are companies with a reputation problem (FB) and companies that barely make a profit (NFLX). This doesn't mean there is anything bad with the economy besides some stock market leaders should not be where they are today. Clearly investors are figuring that out the hard way.

LOL we already have Japan's zombie economy for years thanks to us copying their QE and zirp policy. How dumb is that.