The good news is interest rates are moderating, especially long term rates not just in treasuries but across the board. The Fed has been a follower not a leader. This poses a positive outlook in the near term and has been realized by the market. That said, a downturn will happen eventually. Hopefully the Fed will be more normalized and better able to deal with it when it appears.

The author is right that there are a lot of potential bad things that can happen but it is not right to add them into estimates when their occurrence is still not known. Hopefully the China trade spat will be resolved as well as the government shutdown. If this happens it will be quite positive for the market.

With oil prices weakening inflation worries have been mollified. The only thing causing inflation right now is trade wars and tariffs. This is the main reason for the US Fed to raise rates and it is not wrong until the threat dissipates. Sadly this is a political choice with economic effects rather than an economic choice. Who knows if it will end. It certainly will continue to hurt the global economy and increasingly hurt the US economy as well.

Global #tradewars will hurt US manufacturing in the long run. The US needs cheap steel and other raw materials and parts to create affordable added value products. Barring this it just opens the floodgates for other countries to use them and grow their business at the cost of US brands.

This market is quite interesting. Yes manufacturing is getting a pullback and the semi cycle is ending, however the US economy driver by mainly the service industry is still chugging along. This years winter driving and Christmas season oil usage is all up.

The author has a point that gas prices are still relatively high in the US. Sadly it is partially because of gas taxation. However, Exxon and companies processing oil to gasoline are probably doing well despite the drop in oil. Of course Exxon didn't get much of a rise when oil prices skyrocketed. So stability in this stock is more the key I guess.

The main point is the US is pumping as much oil as it can because small oil companies must cover cash flow and pump at a loss and will soon buckle. I don't expect the projection for massive increases in US oil output from here as some do. The oil price decline will only strengthen the case for reduced oil production growth from here on out. The oil price decline will hurt the US now rather than help it. This is a big change from the 1970s.

This decline is heavily driven on politics, more on political destabilization caused by Trump than anything else. Because of this, as he addresses the uncertainty the market is bouncing back up rapidly. If the China trade war end and the uncertainty over the Fed ends the market may be set to rally strongly. However, this remains a big if, just like the potential for a deal to reopen government offices.

The other big reason for the market decline is the fall in oil which adversely affects many companies in the US and many economies. Trumps insistence that he wanted lower oil prices as low as $1 and pushed for Saudi Arabia to make it so may be a bad wish because if it came true it would collapse large portions of the US economy. We are dependent on oil these days as much as we ever were. It's just that we are now a large producer as well rather than a giant consumer.

Housing is pretty ridiculously priced as is to be expected after the spate of absurdly low interest rates. I would still not encourage people to buy even though interest rates have risen. If anything, it increases the risk that a downturn will occur sooner rather than later. The big issue is are rents also overvalued. Most likely they are also, putting a big be careful sign on real estate ETFs which keep saying everything is great even as their prices decline. The simple fact that groups are trying to buy out houses to rent them in mass is a sign this cycle has gone too far.

The market has bounced back after a bout of disturbing news more on the calming effect of not firing the Fed chief more than the strong Christmas sales numbers which may be more attributed to inflation than anything else. A strong rebound it is, however, it does not imply a directional reversal longer term. What we need is the political weights to be taken off the market. That is, Chinese tariff wars, global weakening by attacking our allies, stabilization in the Mid East theater, and monetary stability.

The market thrives on stability. Hopefully it will return at least for a few more months.

Home prices are unaffordable and have been for years now. Unfortunately this is caused by many things including property taxes, regulations, foreign investment, speculation, companies and people buying up property to turn into investments and rentals, etc. It has eroded from something people need to have to live into a game of monopoly and its killing the middle class.

When oil prices turn back up.

Sadly the market can go much lower, especially since oil collapsed soon after #Trump begged Saudi Arabia to lower oil which is now lower partially to kill US #oil production increases. As a warning to Trump, be careful what you ask for. US oil drillers should be furious besides big oil. Exxon and Shell are fine regardless of where oil goes in the short term. Expect Texas and other oil states to hurt.

Although oil isn't the main factor in the decline, it certainly will affect the US going forward. It is also a proxy for US health going forward. If Americans cut oil production that bodes poorly for consumption of everything else.