The closest way to understand all of this is to look at Japan when it implemented low interest rates and QE. If you want to kill your economy, this is a almost surefire way to do so.

Thanks, it's certainly worth watching although I don't see the market blowing up this quarter. Earnings were reasonable. We will see about the next slew of reports although the weak dollar is really pumping up big corporations with foreign sales. I'd tend to believe it won't be until at least next year to start worrying. Maybe that's why volatility is so low, others may feel the same as me.

Indescriminate risk is relative. More worrisome than risky investments is the increasing tandem movements of stocks driven by mutual funds and the like. This is causing good and bad stocks to move in lockstep leaving a lot of stocks with large room to fall in a downturn. When they break lockstep is when to start worrying. All boats rise together but bad ones sink faster than good ones.

I don't think we have reached risk off, however, it is possible that we are entering summer doldrums, especially with the political circus in Washington. Those hoping for major tax breaks to help the economy next year are overly optimistic. In the end, the market will fall when corporate earnings growth slows or drops. Likewise debt growth isn't the major issue. It is the rise in debt versus the rise in earnings and assets. Right now personal debt isn't the problem although corporate debt is becoming a concern given its not being used to buy capital equipment or assets to grow the economy as much as to pay dividends and buy back stock.

Nice catch. Is it still a buy in your estimation? Also is their growth and earnings sustainable in the long run?

Very good explanation regarding free trade and the benefits. Unhooking from free trade may make a nice story about supporting your country, but it is quite the opposite. As for the economic mess we are in today. Indeed the focus on preventing lower prices is absurd, especially if you want economic growth. Sadly, the current administration in tandem with the Federal Reserve are deflating the dollar and thus eroding the value of it's citizens assets in order to stimulate growth.

However, those with assets aren't fools and like in Japan, it causes them to hold their assets and not spend as it takes more money to generate their income streams and buy things like houses. It is true this also causes the rich to diversify out of the US which will eventually lead to an even weaker dollar later.

Thanks for the insight. Some people may not know this factoid.

Some good conclusions may yield good results for generations. Thus sometimes it's hard to determine exactly when it's too late. Worse though are bad advice which duplicated by others with the same or sometimes worse results. Yes, Einstein would define this as insanity.

These are, buying houses in a rising interest rate environment, especially when the low interest rates are unusually low. Not buying stock ever. Letting others invest your money who you don't take the time to bet to know and don't know their motivations completely. Running your government on a rising levels of unsustainable debt until the economy crashes. Manipulating your monetary policy to zirp and then augmenting it with massive QE to insure your economy can not grow robustly and your children live through a Japan style zombie economy for decades. As I said, there are a lot of patently worse bad ideas than following a good idea.

When you do follow any idea, you should always keep a look out for when the idea is no longer a good idea. Always keep your eyes open, be proactive, and be cautious. This is yet another patently good idea that hasn't failed many great investors.

Make sure you buy real gold and hold it. The issue is many buy paper gold which is bad if it doesn't rise and potentially terrible if it explodes upwards because you may be holding contracts that may not be any good given they are not backed by a full amount of gold and in some cases, little to no gold. Thus the disconnect between gold and gold prices that are suppressed by a growing amount of paper gold that outstrips real gold.

The effects are especially large if you add to the charts the dollars decline which is the only reason there is growth in exports and imports at all. In equal rated dollars the trade numbers look horrifically bad.

In general the way to play the market it's best to invest in growth or income and usually techs if you believe the market will keep on rising. If not, more conservative bets are better that won't decline as bad as the market and/or recover faster if it declines.

Your current investments look like you are believing that the market will be in a steady state and not rise or fall much, thus you are focused heavily on dividend plays. Many dividend plays are not safe in a downturn and will not sustain their dividends if the market and economy drops. Be careful. I think a steady state for stocks is least likely by 2018 which is fast approaching.