This is just kind of typical of market excesses. There are going to be pockets of the markets that behave irrationally far longer than you would think, as well! Yes, it's nice to get some chatter from the big banks like BoA saying similar things to I have in the last few weeks, but even they are unsure. I've played in these types of markets for a long time now though, and given some indications we're seeing and the massive disconnect between the economy and stock market highs, there's bound to be a correction sooner rather than later. As Cramer (Mad Money) said last week, "No one has ever gotten burned by taking profits"

Thanks @[Erikas Ivan](user:150662)! Patience is something that many investors are lacking nowadays. It's funny, long-term investing isn't seen as years anymore, it's months. Looking forward to providing more content!

I wouldn't be comfortable recommending only commodities to an investor myself @Monica Kingsley. @William K. You set yourself up for failure when you do not diversify properly for the long term. You might luck out and get in for an upswing (which seems possible here with a reflation trade), but I would not dismiss all stocks as an investment. Allocate some of your portfolio to stocks for the long term, and buy ETFs to get the diversification you need at minuscule prices. I personally have about 70-80% of my holdings in stocks that are not correlated to commodities or commodity assets themselves.

In your case, it may be better to take a longer term approach and invest more passively? There's a reason passive ETFs have outperformed the vast majority of hedge funds in the last 10 years...

Hi @[William K.](user:30001)! Yes, most companies would have an idea of their intrinsic values on shares, but you would be surprised at the amount of newsletters / stock traders / institutional investors that get into stock markets without any plan for an exit - what do you do if the price runs (to the moon)? What do you do if the price drops? Generally, a correction is defined as a 10% loss, with a bear market being 20%, but I think to put a hard number is not the best way to go overall - there are certainly markets that pulled back 19.5% that you could call a bear market, and 9.5% that you could call a correction, for example. So it is dependent on more than just a pure number, in my opinion. Of course, I went into more detail about these calls in the full paid version on Sunshine Profits, but if you didn't know already, I would highly recommend checking out Bob Farrel's 10 rules of investing - I look at them often in bull and bear markets to try to take my emotions out of investing, which is no easy task! www.cnbc.com/.../...cable-to-this-bull-market.html Thanks for your comment, let me know if you have any questions about the piece. -Matthew

Hi Monica, "calling the rally" can be a dangerous way to turn trading into biases. We all suffer from the same emotional attachments to investing, and must be aware of them. The point of these articles is to help readers manage risk in their overall portfolios, diversify properly, and professionally manage volatile markets. Markets do not always go up, and a correction is likely around the corner - they tend to happen at least once a year. With the analysis above, I think taking risk off is prudent at this time as a correction (10%+) is looking more probable even as we go higher today and this week. Lots to catch up on over the next week, and when everyone thinks the market is going up, history tells us not to go with the herd for too long.

Hi Monica, I disagree, although it's hard to exactly time corrections, of course. What I really want to concentrate on is the type of risk you should be taking at this level in the markets - identifying conditions to take some risk off in your portfolios that are backtested is something to pay attention to (i.e. bond market moves, utilities' price action, gold to lumber ratio, etc.). It is possible that markets continue to move higher, but risk is being signaled everywhere right now, epitomized by the extreme moves in some highly shorted stocks in the last couple of weeks. If you're not noticing these types of risk off signals, you're either not paying attention, or you're ignoring them to support a thesis. I prefer to stay nimble and protect assets - alpha in your portfolio comes from being down less, not marginally higher in a market that has gone very fast to the upside from market lows.

I don't think 10% is out of the question at all, even despite today's rally @[Monica Kingsley](user:149790). It could happen extremely fast, akin to the March correction in 2020, but it's definitely within the realm. 20%? probably not.

I completely agree. The market needs a healthy correction at this point, though, which is why in the ST I think its best to take some profits and / or be wary, even after the move today. Medium to long term constructive, but a lot will depend on if inflation rears it's ugly head after massive stimulus across the globe - will this time be different?

good thing March is included in Q1!