Author, The Donovan Report
Contributor's Links: The Donovan Report
As a supervisory analyst at several bulge-bracket research shops, I watched the hubris of Wall Street forecasts from a front-row seat. In a triumph of hope over experience, this has not stopped me. I spent 15 years on Wall Street as an editor and supervisory analyst for equity research ...more


Nasty, Brutish And Not So Short
The equity and credit markets decide how to toggle between assets on real numbers from a central government that they assume is competent.
Two Ex-Wives And Several Bartenders
A worldwide recession, if not depression, is certainly baked in the COVID-19 cake. No bottom in sight.
How 'Real' Are Retail Sales?
Data released this morning supports the sense that the U.S. economy remains buoyant. We wonder though.
The Great Fires Of 2020
Without the benefit of Big Data (we consider it cheating), here’s what’s coming up in 2020: Stocks too rich; inflation kindling awaits match; Fed hamstrung; Yankees, Cowboys, Wolff big winners.
Suffering With Sontag
The case for a bottom in equities is vanity.
Is Your Daddy Rich And Your Momma Good Lookin'?
The United States 10-year note is at 2.93%, close enough to our buy target of 3%. Sell stocks, buy bonds. At 143% of GDP, equities are way too rich, we think.


Latest Comments
Nasty, Brutish And Not So Short
2 years ago

Dear Old Time, Thanks for the kind words. I've been awfully lazy lately, but expect to get back in the game soon.

The Great Fires Of 2020
3 years ago

Thanks for the feedback, Bill. You make a good point. Underreported when I began assembling this piece. Maybe should have revised. Thanks again for reading and happy new year.

In this article: AMZN
The Truth About Timing
5 years ago

Thank you, Barry.

The Truth About Timing
5 years ago

'Tis a conundrum at times, Alexis. One way to look at it is that the equity market purports to be a forecaster of the future. In the case of the selloff, it may be that the strong jobs numbers made its collective players (and their algorithmic robots) believe interest rates were going higher sooner.

Survey Says… Ignore The Hard Data At Your Peril
6 years ago

Well put, Mike. I tend to agree with you, but the jobs numbers tell a counter story don't they? In any event, thanks for the perspective on what is and what's wished for.

The Federal Reserve And The Destruction Of The American Dream
6 years ago

Ms. Booth, Really enjoyed reading this. I wonder, though, if the Federal Reserve is the real culprit in dream destruction. How could it have done otherwise? If not a silver bullet, weren't its policies the only responsible route? In any event, you've captured a fan.

Post-Election Humility And A Vulnerable Market
6 years ago

Louis, I blush. Thanks for the kind words.

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AVP Avon Products Inc.
BKS Barnes & Noble Inc
COH Coach (now Tapestry)
EL Estee Lauder Companies Inc.
GPS The Gap Inc.
JCPNQ J.C. Penney Company Inc.
KORS see Capri Holdings
LB L Brands, Inc.
M Macy's Inc.
MAT Mattel Inc.
RDEN Elizabeth Arden Inc.
TGT Target Corporation
UA Under Armour Class C
WFM Whole Foods Market Inc.
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