Kevin Donovan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Author, The Donovan Report
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As a supervisory analyst at several bulge-bracket research shops, I watched the hubris of Wall Street forecasts from a front-row seat. In a triumph of hope over experience, this has not stopped me.

I spent 15 years on Wall Street as an editor and supervisory analyst for equity research ... more

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1 to 14 of 14 Posts
E Nasty, Brutish And Not So Short
The equity and credit markets decide how to toggle between assets on real numbers from a central government that they assume is competent.
E Two Ex-Wives And Several Bartenders
A worldwide recession, if not depression, is certainly baked in the COVID-19 cake. No bottom in sight.
How 'Real' Are Retail Sales?
Data released this morning supports the sense that the U.S. economy remains buoyant. We wonder though.
E The Great Fires Of 2020
Without the benefit of Big Data (we consider it cheating), here’s what’s coming up in 2020: Stocks too rich; inflation kindling awaits match; Fed hamstrung; Yankees, Cowboys, Wolff big winners.
E Suffering With Sontag
The case for a bottom in equities is vanity.
E Is Your Daddy Rich And Your Momma Good Lookin'?
The United States 10-year note is at 2.93%, close enough to our buy target of 3%. Sell stocks, buy bonds. At 143% of GDP, equities are way too rich, we think.
E What Rough Beast?
The Federal Open Market Committee, under the new regime of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, hiked, as expected, the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points at its meeting yesterday.
E The Truth About Timing
Who says you shouldn't time the market?
E A Stable Genius Guide To 2018
The hour is getting late, as Bob Dylan told us while businessmen drank his wine and plowmen dug his earth, but never too late, dear reader, for our annual outlook.
E Saving Par Will Take Some Doing In The Age Of Trump
Like our golf swing, expensive equities are vulnerable to shocks, more likely now that Donald Trump is in charge, we think.
E Post-Election Humility And A Vulnerable Market
The market expects the FOMC to push the Fed Funds rate another quarter percentage point higher at its meeting in five days. But don’t expect another unless the Fed wants to pop the equity bubble. And a prodigious bubble we think it is.
E We Have No Angst On Election Eve
We think it a mistake to raise rates in December, as the Fed has indicated it will do; if it continues to squeeze money supply in 2017, recession will follow no matter who’s in the oval office.
Markets These Times
Brexit proved a brief scare, even though Great Britain is the world’s fifth largest economy, but recent employment and retail sales data have made the case that the U.S. can resist the drag from sclerotic Europe and a slowing China.
More To Come From J.C. Penney
We've been a fan of J.C. Penney for some time, even though our patience has been sorely tried. After shooting higher on the release of fourth-quarter results last week, we believe JCP shares have more room to advance.
1 to 14 of 14 Posts